So let’s start with AD38. I’ve been able to determine that the vendor alleged to have been paid somehow by the still in debt Congressional Campaign of Suzette Martinez-Valladares does not show up on the campaign finance reports because that vendor was a sub-vendor of the former consultant for the Congressional Campaign. It is confusing, but it would be like Joe Blow hiring Right on Daily to demolish a candidate, Joe Blow has to disclose the sub vendor (right on daily) subject to applicable rules, but any money owed to the sub vendor is not separately reported on the campaign finance reports.
This means that what I previously wrote could still be true, but it is also true at the same time that neither the current Assembly Consultant Tim Rosales and the Treasurer Kelly Lawler would not have know how that guy got his debt paid.
No one I have spoken to knows how the guy got paid – so my theory still stands about “Republican Leadership” taking care of their chosen one for #AD38.
BTW – do I think Lucie Lapoint Volotsky will beat Suzette Martinez-Valladares? If Suzette is breathing on 11-3, she will win the election. I hope that’s clear.
Before I mock Kevin McCarthy for being an incredibly weak minority leader and fundraiser – I am pleased to report that due in no small part to the efforts of your intrepid blogger and Steve Frank with his platform – RNC Delegates have been refunded $1010 of the $1200 they paid.
I heard from several that the
leeches consultants running the RNC delegation drill did not want to refund the unused money and are fuming at having to do so. So sorry to interrupt their long anticipated spoils of war from the 2019 Chairman’s race but the irony is those squishes support the shutdown and mask mandates that led to the RNC being largely scuttled.
So – I am adding another possible reason beyond the Scott Winn revenge drill, to the lynching of Ted Howze in CA-10. McCarthy needed an excuse to write him off. Howze would not be a leadership vote for McCarthy either – adding to the list of reasons why his lackeys (jilted 2nd tier consultant Scott Winn), Her majesty the Chair rigged a demolition of Howze.
Take a look: CA-39 is not on the list. CA-45 is not on the list. Greg Raths and Young Kim have been written off. CA-49 Bryan Maryott. Toast.
Amazingly, all McCarthy has for David Valadao CA-21 is $100K. Perhaps what your intrepid blogger noticed about CAGOP communications ignoring him was an indicator of McCarthy’s animus after all? It would seem that a former congressman in a very winnable race in CA-21 would draw more support from McCarthy. (Amazingly, CA-21 shares a border with McCarthy’s District) There is no way McCarthy could get away with doing nothing for Valadao which appears to have been his preference.
Valadao has a better chance of winning than CA-25 Mike Garcia and CA-48 Michelle Steel. McCarthy has to pour money in to a sitting member, so the $866K in to Garcia makes sense. The fact that McCarthy is dumping $1.1 Million in to Michelle Steel means that the leadership are forced to play in Orange County despite abandoning Young Kim and Greg Raths.
In My opinion – Valadao is better than 50-50 against the scandal-marred TJ Cox.
Garcia is at best a 50-50 shot to get re-elected.
There is no way unless I am missing something obvious that Michelle Steel is in better shape than Garcia or Valadao.
Steve Frank believes the CAGOP is on pace to lose another 6 legislative seats. If this move in the Congressionals is any indication, Frank could be very close to correct.
P.S. The people controlling the money that McCarthy Raised? Yup. Tom Ross’ crew. Same as it ever was.