May 092016

20160507_165031Andy Pugno is an untrustworthy Republican. Whoops. Did the people that sent this forget that this is the Donald Trump election and many in the GOP Establishment are setting up a group called Republicans for Hillary because their candidates lost?

I saw this and I wondered if this “attack” was actually intended to help Andy Pugno. I worked for Pugno when he took on the unpopular Beth Gaines in 2012. Beth Gaines did not poll well in Placer County then and still does not now. This is likely why she had to move to El Dorado Hills to run for Supervisor up there instead of trying to take out Kirk Uhler. It is what it is – blasting Andy Pugno for being mean to Beth Gaines may cause Placer residents to nominate him for sainthood.

20160507_165019I looked at the campaign finance reports and I saw money spent on a poll. I’d kill for a copy of the poll. I am sure they asked more questions than what is in this mailer.

The piece even quotes the disaster of an assembly permanent minority leader who sacrificed five GOP seats in 2012, diverting $1.5 million to save Beth Gaines from Mr. Pugno. (while the GOP lost 5 legislative seats in that election)

Then there is the lying lawyer routine, yeah, that might work. Kinda worn out, though.

A lot of people are broke and fearful right now, maybe a little class envy over the rich lawyer pulling $205K and counting out of his own pocket to buy the assembly seat would be one of the hits I’d use. Of course with dollar bills in the background for full effect.

I am not sure if Howard Jarvis polls anymore – if it still does, then quoting them assailing Pugno might be effective. Otherwise, they are a part of the feckless GOP Establishment, that voters set fire to in 42 other states.

Beth Gaines’ campaign consultant Dave Gilliard was rightly trashed in the media for outright lying about Pugno several times in 2012 – but one of the one valid attacks Mr. Gilliard made was pointing out that Pugno has made tens of thousands of dollars off of suing people. (the #1 reason why Lawyer/Attorney are terrible occupations in a GOP primary) Pugno is well-off, that is for sure. He has parted with $205k for this run thus far. He also borrowed another $17k from family.

The Richard Pan campaign annihilated Pugno for his off the chart right stance on abortion. Pugno opposes abortion in all cases. If I was bombing Pugno, I’d use a picture of Todd Akin to compare Pugno’s abortion stance. I personally would not be able to do that as I am very much Pro-Life myself – I’d prefer a sexual assault victim to have the baby and give it a chance to live, but I personally can’t go so far as to say no abortion in that circumstance. If we stopped the other 96% of abortions, that would be a huge victory for life (but I digress)…

Pugno is no more Conservative than Bill Halldin when you look at the total package. Both are way more conservative than Kevin Kiley and Cristi Beckstead Neslon – who were also tested in the poll that was run by this group (if it is the same poll I was told about a month ago by several people).

Mr. Kiley has attacked Pugno for writing Prop 8 and Beckstead-Nelson is pro-choice and has not signed the taxpayer protection pledge like Pugno and Halldin have. I suppose the attack about Pugno breaking his previous pledge in 2012 might be a suggestion that he will break the taxpayer protection pledge? I am just not sure that attacking a conservative for attacking another conservative in a campaign will work. Lying? maybe.

Quoting a failed GOP Chairman who ran the CRP in to debt $2 million, who also used the CAGOP as a dating service in a character attack against Pugno is as bad quoting the disastrous former minority leader. It makes people think this is revenge and sour grapes over Pugno challenging the status quo in 2012. Perhaps I am too much of an insider to realize that most don’t know and/or don’t care that the two GOP officials quoted are failures.

I just don’t think you should quote California’s equivalent of Reince Prebius and John Boehner in anything for any reason. When this electorate sees anyone with a Republican title, there are a certain measure of them that see “RINO and Beaner” in everything. I know, I was on the ground in Nevada in Feb for the Caucuses, it was surreal.

Perhaps I still feel some loyalty to Pugno as I worked for him in 2012. I just know what I have seen on the ground and if these hit pieces continue the way they are – Pugno will make the runoff.

I know Andy Pugno well. He will have no problem responding to this attack, I pretty much know how he will respond to this and other attacks. I am sure there are more coming, I wonder what they will look like.

Apr 292016

Let’s go from the bottom up.

Suzanne Jones, has $2500 left. Has lent herself about $10k

Kevin Hanley, has a net $54k left. Has bought some radio and some mail. Has only raised about $20k from people not named Kevin Hanley.

The first real news is that Cristi Nelson raised about $23k TOTAL in 2016. After the reports cut off, Nelson’s Husband went to a couple vendors for another $10k which leaves Nelson with $106k in the bank, just enough to re-pay the $100k loan.

Andy Pugno has given himself $101k, and lent himself 100k + has gotten an additional $16,800 in loans from family. When you subtract his unpaid bills from his cash total, he has about $215k in the bank. Pugno is in debt to Tim Clark, who was hired by Rob Manafort to work for Donald Trump, $15k of the $47k in unpaid bills he reported.

If you are scoring at home: 10K Jones, 105K Hanley, 201K Pugno, 100K Nelson = 416K chipped in by Republican candidates on themselves.

Nelson has raised a little more than 105K, Hanley, 15K, Pugno about 25K and Jones about 10K for a total of $155K.

This is insane. Of The total $571k reported by the above, only 27% of it was raised, the remaining 73% was from their own pocket.

Now, to young Mr. Kiley. The reports showed that the $80k in out of district money he reported was raised for him by an intermediary. This matches the impression I had of his campaign and fundraising all along. In addition, the overwhelming majority of his money is from out of district.

Kiley has given himself $8400 out of his 238K raised. That is not an issue. The real issue is that over half of his money is from Bay Area donors.

Kiley’s campaign crew made sue to leave him with 100k in the bank for the psychological value of having six figures. This is also similar to the staged pictures and the super selective campaign activity designed to create an appearance. It remains to be seen if substance will follow.

Now to my guy, Bill Halldin.

He did not use an intermediary to raise his $230k. He did not come out of pocket for anything significant (maybe $2k) and he raised $230k in 6 less months than young Mr. Kiley.

Halldin reported $130k net in the bank. This puts him in a clear first place, especially since none of the money in his account is his own.

Kiley and Pugno have already sent their first mail pieces and the storm is landing now. Buckle up people.

Do not believe anyone’s press releases – here are the raw numbers

Candidate         TIME IN CAMPAIGN           Amount Raised                Amount of Own Money+Loans         Net Raised

Cristi Nelson    18 Months                              208k                                     100k                                                            108k

Andy Pugno     2 months                                260k                                     201K + 17K                                                 42k

Kevin Hanley  6 months                                 125k                                     105k                                                              20k

Kevin Kiley      11 months                                238k                                   8k                                                                   230k

Bill Halldin     6 months                                  230k                                   5k                                                                    225k


Kevin Kiley had to get outside help to draw even in the money race, something he can not keep up. Bill Halldin is the clear front-runner, because real donors equal real support. When you look closer, over 2/3 of his money is from inside the district. No hyperbole here, just facts.

Apr 232016

Please note – I am helping Bill Halldin and was proud to have been involved in helping him from almost the day he decided to run for AD06. This blog post is written from a 30,000 foot view as best I can despite my personal interest in electing Bill Halldin to the Assembly.

Where do we stand right now in the #AD06 race?

Andy Pugno – everyone acknowledges that he has a name ID advantage. Apparently, Andy Pugno and his campaign consultant Tim Clark (who was also hired by Rob Manafort to work for Donald Trump in California) were convinced enough that Mr. Clark had been working behind the scenes to try to set Pugno up for a run.

In addition – Tim Clark or Andy Pugno himself believe that his chances are so good that Mr. Pugno just contributed $200,000 more to his own campaign. Pugno can not recover this money, unlike the first $100,000. I will be curious to see how that money was spent at the end of the day. I am also curious to see how Tim Clark can run the entire state for Donald Trump while helping Pugno.

All this said, had I not been involved helping Bill Halldin from Day One – I’d have certainly been involved in Andy Pugno’s campaign. Pugno remains my second choice in #AD06.

Kevin Kiley – a young trial lawyer who supports Gay Marriage and has publicly attacked Andy Pugno for writing Proposition 8, has reported $80,700 in contributions since the 24-hour period opened. Only $6500 is from the Sacramento Area. It is safe to say that this young socially liberal trial lawyer is funded by Bay Area Liberals (and donors from New York and Washington DC).

Kiley has had limited campaign activity and has made interesting decisions on spending and content appears to be running to the center in the primary by touting the endorsement of a GOP-Destroying former Governor. Kiley has also signaled that he is going to attack Bill Halldin as he has been running his mouth liberally inside the district.

Cristi Beckstead-Nelson – her campaign appears to be running out of steam. She has had events that have generated little or no interest, other than placing some extremely large banners on roadsides has had little campaign activity. Beckstead-Nelson is how she is listed in county records and her voter registration, yet she is running from her legal name in her campaign. Beckstead-Nelson is also a social liberal.

Beckstead-Nelson’s campaign appears to be running out of steam. She has reported only $6800 in large checks in all of 2016. She also appears to have spent a lot of her own money and may never recoup the $100k she is on pace to lose.

Kevin “Hurricane” Hanley – has chipped in $105,000 of his own money. Aside from Halldin and Pugno, Hanley is the only other candidate running or AD06 I consider qualified and able to do the job. That said, Hanley’s campaign is headed nowhere and I sincerely hope he does not spend all of his own money.

Outside interests have polled. It appears that they are about ready to come in and make their presence known. What they do is anyone’s guess… Which gets me to Bill Halldin…

Having seen this from the inside – Halldin has a huge donor list that is likely larger than all of his opponents combined. The reports that will be public soon will show this. Secondly, these people are also helping the campaign all over the district.

Halldin, who is an unabashed Social Conservative, has managed to get the support and endorsement of people from across the spectrum of politics.

Halldin earned the following endorsements in the last two weeks: Doug Ose, Roger Niello, Congressman Doug LaMalfa, Senator Jim Nielsen, Assembly-Members James Gallagher and Frank Bigelow – representing a cross-section of the GOP and showing serious power for his candidacy.

This is going to aggregate and will make Halldin competitive with anyone running in this 11 candidate mess.

My analysis will stop here as the insanity will begin to hit people’s mailboxes soon. It is time for me to grab my Trump hat and some breakfast… gotta go get some precincts covered. Make #AD06 Great Again…

Mar 092016

I was pinged on a poll that referenced Andy Pugno and Cristi Nelson.

This is consistent with his pattern from 2012 when he ran a poll very late right before filing closed and then pulled papers and filed against Beth Gaines.

I just received a call from someone who saw Andy Pugno at the Sacramento Elections Office.

You tell me what this means?

Click here to see that Mr. Pugno did indeed pull papers yesterday 3/10/2016.

Beth Gaines plays Dial-a-Squish for Money

 AD-06 Race, Andy Pugno, Beth Gaines, Dave Gilliard  Comments Off on Beth Gaines plays Dial-a-Squish for Money
Sep 162012

Recently, Conservative Hero Shannon Grove gave Andy Pugno $3900.

So, Connie Conway had to answer that. Beth Gaines received a total of $5000 from three tax-raising moderate Republicans. Paul Cook (whose congressional campaign was heavily funded by Charles Munger IE’s), Jeff Gorell (who voted for the timber tax) and Katcho Achidijian (who also voted for the timber tax).

Don’t take my word for it. Click Here.

What I think is amazing is that Beth Gaines did not raise a dime for two months after the primary. Either she couldn’t, or was too lazy to make the calls. (If she is even making them now)

Neither scenario is a good thing.

However, David Stafford Gilliard is the big winner here – he gets to make more consulting fees now that he and Connie Conway basically welcomed Andy Pugno back in to the race.