Mar 102019

(Note – at least in 2019 Mr. Kiley has a few local endorsements.) However, this is an historical note that should be considered as people evaluate Mr. Kiley’s current mailings. This is a re-post from 06/06/2016


Placer GOP Chairman Dennis Revell stood up. He basically called Dave Gillard and Kevin Kiley out for violating the California GOP trademark The soundbyte from Dave Gilliard was priceless as well. Well done, Dennis Revell, thank you for standing up for the integrity of the GOP.

The KFBK Story is linked:

Where was Kevin Kiley? Why did Gilliard have to respond himself?

(Remember, this was in 2016) The story also took on Gilliard and Kiley for their claims that Republican Party leaders are uniting behind Mr. Kiley. It is the only card they can play at this point, I get that – but it is still a lie as the party apparatus was split between Hanley and Halldin.

KFBK’s story covered both the deceptive use of the Republican Elephant and the messaging of Kiley’s mailers and Walk Pieces. The story concluded by reminding listeners that Kiley has not been endorsed by the GOP at any level… ‘

… which is another theme. Pete Wilson’s lawyer’s son works for Kiley, the California Republican Taxraisers Association is purchased and the Small Business Association also endorsed three other candidates. The GOP endorsement appears to not be available on, or done in triplicate – therefore Mr. Kiley was unable to obtain a copy.

Dave Gilliard is an outstanding and effective Republican Consultant. This was not one of his finer moments. Young Mr. Kiley is not acting quite as confident these days in 2019




EL DORADO HILLS – El Dorado County Republican Party Chairman Dallas Sweeney today urged voters to disregard misleading campaign literature that implies that the Republican Party has endorsed a candidate in the State Assembly District 6 race.

 “The Republican Party has not endorsed any Republican candidate in this race,” Sweeney said. “None of the three county party committees that cover Assembly District 6 have made any endorsement or is urging voters to cast their ballots for any candidate. The state party has made no endorsement.”

 Mr. Sweeney’s comment comes after an Assembly candidate published mailers and handouts that use a Republican elephant logo and claim that ‘Republican Party leaders have endorsed’ one candidate and urged voters to cast their ballots for him.

 “These statements are misleading and the use of the Republican Party logo is an effort to confuse and mislead voters,” Mr. Sweeney said. “It’s regrettable that any candidate would mislead voters with these kinds of representations.”

 Assembly District 6 includes parts of Placer, Sacramento and El Dorado counties. There are eight Republican candidates competing in Tuesday’s election.

Mar 072019

It was 2016. A man I knew and respected had stepped up to run for Assembly when the local electeds were all passing on the deal. Bill Halldin knew he’d have an uphill battle for the AD06 Race. It was a Melee. 11 People filed.

Mikulaco’s Signs were a classic. Note that they were recycled from his Supervisor Race from 4 years prior

Kiley had been running for AD06 for about 6 months before most of the other top-line candidates entered. Cristi Nelson was the first in the race, she put a substantial amount of her own money in. She also tried to make moves to clear the field. That appeared to have the opposite effect.

Cristi Beckstead Nelson was joined by Suzanne Jones. There were two democrats, Z’Berg and perennial candidate Brian Caples. There was a bonus speed bump running as an NPP known as “Bo”. Then the tropical depression joined the race. We were also graced with have a “Mik” and a smile. Not to be outdone, Andy Pugno, the author of Prop 8 joined the race on the very last day of filing.

One of my favorite all time memes

Kevin Kiley was the x-factor the entire time.

Beckstead-Nelson was trying to run as Cristi Nelson, knowing the hyphenated name would not play well. (She never fixed her voter registration) It was also clear she sanitized her internet presence as it was terribly difficult to find information on her. She ultimately did well at the ballot box, largely because she was the only female with resources.

Kevin Hanley, inexplicably spent $130,000 of his own money and made about every rookie mistake possible. He called himself the Hurricane, I called him a Tropical Depression.

Bill Halldin, while having the endorsements that mattered, could not overcome his lack of name ID and the connections to the establishment in a Donald Trump dominated election. He was also later in to the race than most of the other combatants.

Kevin Kiley supported John Kasich, but the electorate did not know that. He looked like the Donald Trump of the AD06 Race.

The Ted Cruz of the race was Andy Pugno. Luis Buhler, the puppetmaster of Billionaire donor Charles T Munger Jr. hates Andy Pugno for writing proposition 8. It has been my 20+ year experience with him that he detests social conservatives, especially leaders who make an impact. It turns out that Pugno was the most viable opponent to Kevin Kiley. Buhler would play a key role.

Kiley’s strategy was simple. Since he had a huge head start on the other candidates, he camped out in Sun City Lincoln and Sun City Roseville. Both of these communities because of their turnout represented a disproportionate share of the vote. Kiley said that he knocked on 8,000 doors. It is clear at least 2/3 of those were in the Sun Cities as he won them both by large margins.

Kiley spent a lot of time in El Dorado County. Todd White, the current Chair of the ELDO GOP was helped in to office by Kiley. Kiley finished a close second to Brian Caples in El Dorado County. Most of what few endorsements Kiley had were from El Dorado County.

He also walked strategically targeted partial precincts. Similar to what Scott Alvord did when running for Roseville City Council in the fall of 2016, Kiley would walk the main thoroughfares of a precinct and place as many signs as he could along the high traffic side streets. It created an appearance of stronger support than he had.

Note the very simple message and thin content in 2016. I’d expect 2019 to be no different

Even in 2019, Kiley has spent more time in Universities (Ivy League at that) than his entire work history. He was able to milk the Deputy District Attorney Title to distinguish himself from the field. He also had Pete Wilson by virtue of one of the relationships he had developed in San Francisco.

In 2016, Kiley’s Campaign did the exact same thing they are doing in 2019. They are trying to create the appearance that Kiley is the top Republican Choice, with words implying party-wide support that is not present. It is not a half-bad strategy to try and get votes.

Unfortunately for Kiley in 2019, Rex Hime has Pete Wilson in his corner as Hime actually worked for Wilson.

Kevin Kiley is weak on the Immigration Issue, running from it in public several times. Yet, he has pivoted off of the Law and Order Issue to Immigration. Since the Republican Party Leadership in California believes President Trump to be toxic, I am not expecting any candidate to light Kiley up for his allegiance to the trump-hating John Kasich. They Should.

In 2016, Kiley had something like $300,000 bundled for him by a plethora of wealthy donors from the Bay Area. Some have donated to him again in 2019. One of the Donors ran a late, furious $500,000 independent expenditure in 2016 to support Mr. Kiley. This certainly affected the outcome.

In 2016, the aforementioned Luis Buhler directed $250K in to Bill Halldin before halting that effort with 3 weeks to go. At the same time, they dropped nearly $1,000,000 in attacking Andy Pugno with media and 9(!) pieces of mail. Amazing things happen when you are a zealot and have a wealthy benefactor in the case of Luis Buhler. I’ve written extensively about Buhler’s meddling in Republican Races, including spending millions on County Party Races attacking Conservatives.

It literally was the intervention of the 1%ers with unreal amounts of money that propelled Kiley in to the Assembly.

In 2019, there is no Luis Buhler spending Charles Munger’s money to hunt conservatives. Munger cut off the money in 2018. He only ran a smaller amount of money on behalf of former Assemblymember Catherine Baker who lost in 2018.

In 2019, it appears Kiley’s friends in the Bay Area are not giving him as much as they did in 2016. This dynamic must have been anticipated, which is why Mr. Kiley hoarded his money and refused to help colleagues in the 2018 shellacking. Brian Dahle started from near zero versus the $400k Kiley hoarded and has now drawn the score even.

It is also interesting to see the dynamic among Kiley and Dahle’s colleagues. Most have not endorsed, appearing to reward Kiley’s strategy of self-serving versus team play. I take notice of these things, because they aggregate to tell the story of the endemic lack of leadership in the CAGOP at large. What incentive is there to lead and be a team player when no good deed goes unpunished?

The lack of moral clarity leads us to our next installment in the Tour-De-Kiley. Just what does he believe?

Mar 052019

In the intervening two years since Kevin Kiley got elected to AD06, your intrepid blogger has learned more about Young Mr. Kiley. It is however, like a mystery novel as each question answered breeds three more.

Quite a biography Mr. Kiley had in 2016.

Take a close look at a hit piece Andy Pugno did against Kevin Kiley in 2016. Every last point on it is true. We will explain as we unpack the Kevin Kiley experience. Note that Luis Buhler (who I wrote about extensively in the just concluded CAGOP Officer Elections) directed $1 Million attacking Andy Pugno in 2016, as 9 pieces of mail went out attacking Pugno. Pugno barely missed the runoff against Kiley. The PAC that attacked Pugno was funded by a wealthy liberal billionaire that spent tens of millions electing liberal Republicans in Conservative Districts.

Kevin Kiley is a lawyer. He is also Ivy League Educated. He graduated from Granite Bay High School and kids from that School form the bulk of his campaign volunteers. Your intrepid blogger has met former classmates of Young Mr. Kiley’s who basically told me they were not surprised at all to see Mr. Kiley seek elective office. It appears that this was a life goal of his.

It appears that sometime after Mr. Kiley completed his Ivy League education, he landed in San Francisco. Several of my GOP friends from out in the Bay Area know Mr. Kiley. It also appears that he had or made some connections to wealthy donors in that area as well.

it appears that in 2015, within Two Months of gaining employment in the California Attorney General’s Office (think Kamala Harris) Mr. Kiley set his plan in motion to run for office. Mr. Kiley never prosecuted a case, but was a “Deputy District Attorney” long enough to use the title on the ballot just a year after quitting that job (which he held less than 6 months) to become a full-time candidate. Hence Pugno’s claim of long-term unemployed rang true at the time.

When Kiley ran for Assembly in 2016, he was 31, single never married and did not own a home. Worse, he had about 4 years of employment history.

Now Kiley is 33 or 34, is still single never married and still does not own a home. He does however have 6 1/2 years of employment history (bonus).

A key thing to understand about Mr. Kiley as it appears he and Rex Hime had a bit of a legal battle over ballot titles. Kiley was barred from trying to deceive the voters a second time – being forced to use the generic term “Small Businessman” as opposed to Cattle Rancher. Hime was not allowed to use Taxpayer Advocate, instead using Small Business Advocate. (An interesting term for a lobbyist!)

It is the opinion of this Blogger that the OSE-Kiley Cattle Company is a pile of bovine excrement. If they actually sell some cattle and Mr. Kiley actually gets his hands dirty on a head of cattle, I will gladly change my opinion. In the words of Brian Dahle, “I actually sold 50 head of cattle, good luck to you!”

Dave Gillard, Kevin Kiley’s Campaign manager is a zen master at creating impressive sounding biographies for candidates with swiss cheese backgrounds. Turning Kevin Kiley in to a cattle rancher, specifically to try and combat the real life history of Brian Dahle is Pulitzer Prize level. I think it may be Gilliard’s finest work this side of Bethypoo and her sudden ownership of an Insurance Agency after years of domestic living.

If I ran for office, I’d hire Dave Gilliard. He’d probably turn me in to a Pastor while characterizing my past as working in the Chemistry field.

Kevin Kiley won his election in 2016 for a variety of reasons beyond his “resume”. They matter here in 2019 and are worth repeating in context of the 2 1/2 years hence. We’re going to dive in to the 2016 election as our expose’ on Kevin Kiley continues…

The 2016 Primary was epic. We may never see a hit 3 opponent hit piece ever again
Feb 282019
There is no substitute for the genuine article. Two Bay Area Dudes and a creature of Sacramento are running against Brian Dahle.

Rex Hime is a career lobbyist / “Third House” dude. A lot of my friends in Placer County think Hime is a righteous dude and have endorsed him. I’ve been told that Rex Hime is a right-winger. I have a hard time believing that as the Sacramento Cesspool either does brain damage, sucks you in to a compromise vortex or turns you out. No offense to Mr. Hime, it is what it is. 21 years in the political game has taught me a healthy disdain for Crapitol Mall. I don’t have a whole lot more to say about Mr. Hime, in deference to all the people I know that think highly of him.

Speaking of things Mr. Hime, Dizuba and Kiley have never operated…

Then there is Brian Dahle. I remember helping him beat the establishment in 2012. I wrote a piece about Brian Dahle in 2017 when he shocked the political world, ascending to Assembly Minority Leader.

What about Brian Dahle? I first met Dahle in 2011 when I was helping Andy Pugno against Beth Gaines and Shasta County Supervisor Les Baugh against Ted Gaines. Les told me what a great man and Christian Brian was. Dahle was then a Lassen County Supervisor. Dahle was supportive of Les against Ted Gaines despite the fact that Gaines was a prohibitive favorite. Seeing Dahle honor his friendship of Les Baugh meant something in the political world of shifting sands, backstabbing and expedience. This was even more amazing as Dahle was in an uphill fight for Assembly.

If you are wondering about Brian Dahle’s Conservative Bona-Fides:

California Alliance to Protect Private Property Rights: 100%

Lifetime 14% from California League of Conservation Voters – despite being smeared as a green Republican by others. Heck, the Sierra Club came in at 18%, I guess we should tar and feather Dahle for apostasy.

Despite getting blasted for taking Labor Union Money – here is the California Labor Federation giving Dahle a PERFECT 0% Committee Vote Lifetime Score. I wonder if this came up in his opponent’s research? Ok, so Dahle gets a 15% lifetime rating for his floor votes, what a union stooge.

The Capitol Resource Institute – who supported Dahle’s opponent in 2012 after taking thousands from the political machine behind him, rated Dahle 100%.

Howard Jarvis rated Dahle at 98% in 2016, the California Taxpayers Association was at 100% in 2018.

The NFIB chipped in a 100% rating.

In 2016, Howard Jarvis, the CA Pro-Life Council, Crime Victims United, and the California Labor Federation all endorsed Dahle. Heck, the NRA rates him a lifetime A and endorsed him for good measure.

This is why the support of the Police (PORAC) and the Firefighters Unions, who frequently endorse Republicans do not phase me in the slightest.

I am going to take to a separate post (or 20) to talk about Kevin Kiley. While he is a talented young man, I have not been impressed with several decisions he has made. Suffice to say, I would prefer Rex Hime (If I could not have Dahle) to Mr. Kiley as a perspective State Senator. The reasons are not personal, they are issues of leadership and choices.

Just to tease an example – in the just concluded CAGOP Officer Elections, Both Kiley and Dahle appointed an array of people across the spectrum. Some supported Travis Allen, most supported Jessica Patterson (IE the Establishment). Rex Hime was appointed by Kevin McCarthy and his Proxy was carried to the CAGOP Convention by Patterson herself. Dahle endorsed Patterson.

Kevin Kiley did not endorse anyone, yet his proxy was carried by Trump-Hater and noted liberal GOP Consultant Kevin Spillane. I have far more respect for Dahle and Hime planting their flag on the wrong side than attempting to waffle out of taking a stand. (Note: I worked for Pay for Travis Allen and was proud to stand up for Conservatives in doing so)

To be continued…

Dahle Family Circa 2012
Feb 252019

Like any other CAGOP Convention – especially when I am pushing for candidates, it is stressful and long hours. That is no big deal. But, for your intrepid blogger it was a great weekend on a personal level. For the benefit of a lot of Travis Allen supporters who are wondering what and how it happened, I will attempt to address some of it. There are some that have posted screenshots of re-registering out of the GOP, that is guaranteed to not be the way to solve any issues.

Any of you with any history in the CAGOP know the significance of this

As a hardcore pro-life conservative, Travis Allen was my first choice for CAGOP Chairman. Steve Frank in my opinion was out of position to deliver results. The first awesome thing was being able to get to know Travis Allen and has team. I disagree with the negative characterizations I’ve heard about him from some. Knowing Travis as I do now, I get 100% why some love him and some hate him. I pretty much live in the same world.

Secondly, I got to spend several hours talking to CRA Vice President Tim Thiesen and CRA Exec VP Carl Brickey. After getting expelled from the CRA in 2015, those were the two relationships that I missed the most. I do believe my very public role in helping Travis Allen helped heal wounds and make the reunion possible.

Third, Almost all of Jessica Patterson’s team were polite and even friendly to me. I had a few chats with George Andrews. He is a good dude, one of my favorite swamp creatures if you will. I even chatted with David (Stafford) Reade, Jeff Randle and Mario Rodriguez. All three men were polite and friendly. Reade even cracked a joke about how good he looked with a Cigar in his mouth.

Mario suggested we connect in a few days. While talking to Mr Randle and Mr Rodriguez, our conversation was broken up by Andy (gimmecandy) Garakhani who stood out as one of the few that were outright rude to your intrepid blogger. I do intend to sit down with Mario, Jeff Randle and others – at least to meet them, ask a few questions and to try to establish some sort of relationship.

Fourth, I got to talk to Devon Mathis for about an hour. While I disagreed with his Cap and Trade vote, I understand who he is a lot better now. I also had a chance encounter with former Assemblyman Dante Acosta as well. It was fun to catch up with him as I am friends with his former Chief of Staff and go back to 2010 in the CRA with Dante.

Fifth, I got to meet Joshua Whitfield and Heath Flora. Both went out of their way to be polite and friendly. Flora suggested we open lines of communication. Easy enough.

Sixth, I ran in to John Cox who was genuinely glad to see me and just as onrey as I remember him. Good dude. I also ran in to Luis Alvarado a couple times, he is also one of the good guys even though I wish I could cure him of his TDS 😉

I went to #CAGOP2019 and all I got was this lousy tee-shirt

Jessica Patterson won with 54.6% of the vote on the first ballot. The margin was 285 votes. Reports I had indicated that the “leadership” team had something like 265-280 proxies. Reade himself indicated 280. One of the proxies they had was Kevin Kiley’s, whose proxy was carried by Consultant Kevin Spillane. This is an example of the operation they ran professionally to make sure they accounted for every vote.

There were allegations of “arm twisting”. As your intrepid blogger was able to dig deeper, it appeared to me not much more than having conversations and using persuasion on people that were willing to listen. This would include appointees taking delegates out to dinner to educate them on the finer points of Mrs. Patterson.

There were at least three known Travis Allen supporters that flipped during the convention. This is normal as people are generally unreliable and want to back a winner. As this human unreliability was on display and I am sure Mrs. Patterson’s campaign took inventory as people willing to switch last minute to back a winner are not the kind you build a movement on. In my political lifetime, I’ve seen that a gracious opponent that offers help after losing a battle is almost as reliable as someone on your team from day one. This is one of the main principles I personally operate by.

The only direct coercion I am aware of are nominees being told if they want to run again they should support Jessica Patterson. At that, I spoke with a couple of them directly, and only one really perceived that communication as a threat. When juxtaposed with the behavior of the Patterson Campaign team at the convention, it would appear that overt threats were not something employed.

It would be so much easier to explain Travis Allen’s defeat at the convention if I knew of tons of people that were coerced, it just simply did not happen.

I have some takeaways from the convention, and some I am not sure there are answers for and most there are.

  1. Jessica Patterson led the floor session with poise and professionalism after she won the election. It is clear she prepared for it. She is not a good off-the-cuff speaker and with practice she will get better. I have been told her nickname in the consultant world is “The General”. This means she has a skill set to lead.
  2. Volunteer Group endorsements matter. The Corrin Rankin for Vice Chair Campaign had a professional operation. This blogger lit up Peter Kuo hard and people read the posts en-masse. Mr. Kuo won with 57% of the vote on the second ballot. With the leadership types releasing all of their controlled delegates to vote however on the other officer elections, it is clear most deferred to the direction of the volunteer clubs that endorsed Kuo.
  3. Candidate nomination speeches and show matter. Patterson used her 15 minutes to burn Travis Allen down to the ground. It featured jilted PAC President Carl DiMaio venting his rage on Travis Allen. The weekend featured multiple negative attacks on Mr. Allen. This stuff works. Peter Kuo’s campaign executed this phase almost flawlessly as he used surrogates to make an emotional appeal to parlay his residual name ID in to a victory on Sunday.
  4. The Orange County GOP is a shell of itself. Greg Gandrud beat their machine straight up 595-593. Gandrud also “Out-Retailed” all the other candidates on the floor of the convention.
  5. Randy Berholtz ran a flawless campaign. He started out with high-profile supporters, introduced himself through them and then carried home a 3-1 victory.
  6. Several in Jessica Patterson’s team went out of their way to tell me there is no “Black List”. They added that at 24.5% registration that we need to build bridges, etc. I want to believe there is no black list, but with almost 10 years of residency on said black list I have to defer to my own personal experience as a guide.
Let the significance of this sink in. Cox in 2018, Travis Allen in 2019. What’s next?

If you are Jessica Patterson, you enjoy the win for a couple days and start contacting groups that did not support you. Somehow, the list of people jilted from being delegates need to be reached out to. Obviously, money needs to be raised. If there is a black list, it needs to be torn up and people on it need to be brought in to the fold.

If you are the team around Jessica Patterson, you have a string of gutted Central Committees, volunteer organizations that are shells, with still others fracturing in to a million pieces. You have a shrinking donor base and an apathetic caucus that only showed up to protect the status quo at this convention. What do you do? Do you care about the shrinking, splintering Volunteer Organizations? Do you try to revitalize Central Committees, or do you try to continue controlling shells as per the last 10 years? What do you try to sell donors on? Is it possible to get sitting GOP legislators to engage?

If you are Travis Allen, you have a choice to make. Stay or go? I hope it will be to use the movement you have as a force for good within the CAGOP. Given what I know about Travis Allen, I am sure he will do the right thing.

Your intrepid blogger spent 2 months torching Jessica Patterson’s campaign and crew. I do believe that we framed the debate correctly – it was indeed the insiders (aka the swamp) versus the rest of us. Given that the lines were clearly defined, and everyone knew them, they made their choice clearly.

I am sure a few people will not like me very much. It is clear that I personally did not make any new enemies this weekend. I don’t engage in cowardly anonymous attacks, I sign my name to them. The behavior and interactions I had with people this weekend told me that while they are irritated with me, there is a level of respect for being willing to stand up and be counted.

That said, your intrepid blogger will follow through on his promise to respect the results of the election. I am looking forward to meeting some of these people in person, smoking the peace pipe and figuring out how to win some elections next year.

Lastly on a personal note – the California Impact Republicans was given a full charter by the CAGOP at the end of the 2019 convention. This was the culmination of a 3 1/2 year mission after being expelled from the CRA in 2015. The CIR was created to be a group of Conservatives, Squishes and in between with a goal of recruiting candidates and winning elections. We tell people we are no-compromise conservatives that welcome everyone. As of today, the CIR is in 11 counties with 14 chapters. I will be stepping back from a position of executive leadership to a more advisory role as a political director now that the organization is self-sustaining.

Thanks for reading – if you are a Travis Allen believer, supporter and activist, please do not go away. There are a lot of good conservatives that need you to stay plugged in. In the 21 years I have been involved, I’ve been through the gamut of wins and losses, yet here I am still standing. My message to you is please stand with me.

Eye on the goal folks. #MAGA2020