Jun 122016
 

I worked for Bill Halldin, we had a simple strategy…

We knew that since Bill had gobbled up a ton of endorsements in Placer County that our opponents would go elsewhere and fight it out. We also know that “Mik” would be strong in El Dorado as he was a supervisor there. We bet the ranch on Placer.

How strong Mik ended up being in Eldo and Sac County surprised everyone. “Mik” was indeed a damn good leader.

I believe that Bill’s problems were three-fold, none we had any control over.

  1. Andy Pugno getting in to the race overshadowed us in the same target voter universe. His entry took at least 4 points in the aggregate away, maybe as many as 6.
  2. Bill Halldin looks like a Republican Politician. This was still the Donald Trump election and we were unable to stand out the way Pugno and Kiley did. Bill Halldin did the best he could and I do believe that we got our message out. It was not received by the ADHD voter universe.
  3. Placer County did not vote. That was a killer.

As of 6/12/2016:
Placer’s Turnout was a low 33.8%
Sacramento County was an astonishing 64.5%
El Dorado’s Turnout was an average 46.5%

Halldin needed Placer to come through huge. It did not.

Kevin Kiley is a young talented man. I wrote that before and I am writing it again. He was and is a superior communicator to any of the other candidates that ran. I’d also argue that he is more charismatic than any of the other candidates that ran. When you had 11 candidates on the ballot all trying to be unique, Kiley was. Pugno sorta was.

The above was the key to Kiley’s campaign. Period. Not Pete Wilson, Not the Bay Area Donors. It was Kevin. Let that sink in. (This is also why his Cable TV ads were effective – it was Kevin, not the content of the ads)

I hammered Kevin Kiley furiously for a month – he only barked once. This was incredible discipline, which suggests he could have a shorter learning curve as an Assemblymember than you’d expect.

Kevin will be very young for a legislator, he is 31. He is also smarter than most people I have ever met. It is clear when he talks to people one on one that he has talent to burn.

On the ground, Kiley targeted both Sun Cities heavily and worked them heavily. If you look at the precinct-by-precinct vote totals you will see that Sun City Lincoln will be his margin of victory in the AD06 race. Kiley deserves credit for that effort.

It did not matter that we (team Halldin) killed him on the ground in the rest of the county of Placer. They did not vote. I’d bet that the turnout would have been 20% without the Sun Cities! (In fact Rocklin, won by Halldin was indeed about 21% turnout as of 6/12/2016)

It is clear that the hit pieces launched in the mail hurt Kiley as his vote total slid as the night went on. However, he had built himself quite a lead through his efforts.

For as much as I woofed on Dave Gilliard, if I was in his shoes, I’d have done about the same thing strategy-wise in Kiley’s campaign. The fallout from that strategy, however will either define or refine Kevin Kiley’s early tenure as an Assembly-Member. That was the jam Kiley was put in to because of the shallowness of his endorsement support.

When 11 people are on the ballot, it creates a completely volatile situation. With Trump sealing the nomination, it upset the electorate. This was an election where many of the usual conventions of campaigning were tossed aside.

The rest of the votes will be counted by Friday, I’ve been told. I am expecting that Kiley will hold on by 1000-1200 votes (which will still be a large margin in an 11 person race) and that Halldin may pass Cristi Nelson for 5th.

Jun 102016
 

Congrats to Mik who almost beat Kevin Hanley despite spending 1/20 of what Hanley did.

148Kevin Hanley was out sign-waiving on Sierra College and Douglas on Election Day. SMH.

I know that Pugno, Kiley and our camp were calling and walking precincts on Election Day, you know to try and scoop up a few last minute votes? Hanley was instead wasting a day on a street corner.

Unfortunately, Hanley is out at least $132,000 of his own money on this effort and also earns another dubious award from the Right on Daily Blog… worst sign ever.

 

 

Mr. Hanley’s campaign had posted large 4×8 Signs within City Limits of South Placer Cities, they disappeared and were never replaced elsewhere.

146This lonely, little yard sign on a stick was what Mr. Hanley’s campaign was reduced to in the waning weeks of the campaign.

There is no question that Kevin Hanley was qualified for the job of Assemblymember. However, he was a complete failure as a candidate.

The #AD06 race in 2016 will be talked about for years, but not for reasons that most of the participants want to remember…

 

 

 

 

131Not to be outdone, Cristi Beckstead-Nelson – which IS her name – wins the worst candidate photo in a mailer ever award. Beckstead-Nelson is my age and is a reasonably attractive woman.

There was a photo on her “Endorsement Envy” Mailer that was horrible. It is not the kind of photo any serious female candidate should ever have on her own advertisements as it was very unflattering.

Beckstead-Nelson is also out at least $138,500 of her (or her Husband’s) money. I shuddered when I realized that some of it was used to pay for distributing this photo in her own mail.

Nelson will likely finish just ahead or of just behind my guy Bill Halldin due in large part to her having the slate cards in an extremely crowded field, being one of two female candidates and having nearly a year head start on her opponents. She had the chance to force Bill Halldin out of the race and she could not convince local leaders to support her.

 

People searching for reasons why Kevin Kiley won should remember the concept of standing out in a good way. More on that soon…

Jun 062016
 

imagesPlacer GOP Chairman Dennis Revell stood up. He basically called Dave Gillard and Kevin Kiley out for violating the California GOP trademark The soundbyte from Dave Gilliard was priceless as well. Well done, Dennis Revell, thank you for standing up for the integrity of the GOP.

The KFBK Story is linked here for now

. Soon the story should be on their website.

Where was Kevin Kiley with his glibb lawyer comebacks? Why did Gilliard have to respond?

The story also took on Gilliard and Kiley for their claims that Republican Party leaders are uniting behind Mr. Kiley. It is the only card they can play at this point, I get that – but it is still a lie.

KFBK’s story covered both the deceptive use of the Republican Elephant and the messaging of Kiley’s mailers and Walk Pieces. The story concluded by reminding listeners that Kiley has not been endorsed by the GOP at any level… ‘

… which is another theme. Pete Wilson’s lawyer’s son works for Kiley, the California Republican Taxraisers Association is purchased and the Small Business Association also endorsed three other candidates. The GOP endorsement appears to not be available on amazon.com, or done in triplicate – therefore Mr. Kiley was unable to obtain a copy.

Dave Gilliard is an outstanding and effective Republican Consultant. This is not one of his finer moments. Young Mr. Kiley is not acting quite as confident these days.

EL DORADO COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY CHAIRMAN WARNS VOTERS

OF MISLEADING MAILINGS BY ASSEMBLY CANDIDATE

IMG_0693EL DORADO HILLS – El Dorado County Republican Party Chairman Dallas Sweeney today urged voters to disregard misleading campaign literature that implies that the Republican Party has endorsed a candidate in the State Assembly District 6 race.

 “The Republican Party has not endorsed any Republican candidate in this race,” Sweeney said. “None of the three county party committees that cover Assembly District 6 have made any endorsement or is urging voters to cast their ballots for any candidate. The state party has made no endorsement.”

 Mr. Sweeney’s comment comes after an Assembly candidate published mailers and handouts that use a Republican elephant logo and claim that ‘Republican Party leaders have endorsed’ one candidate and urged voters to cast their ballots for him.

 “These statements are misleading and the use of the Republican Party logo is an effort to confuse and mislead voters,” Mr. Sweeney said. “It’s regrettable that any candidate would mislead voters with these kinds of representations.”

 Assembly District 6 includes parts of Placer, Sacramento and El Dorado counties. There are eight Republican candidates competing in Tuesday’s election.

Jun 062016
 

From the website of Govern for California Action Committee is this Gem:

Upon closer inspection, Californians would learn that the missing ingredient is courage. In the case of Democrats, courage means the willingness to buck narrow special interests seeking ever-greater shares of government spending at the expense of programs, taxpayers and private-sector job growth. In the case of Republicans, courage means the willingness to buck no-tax groups who, even when presented with all the reforms they seek, refuse to acknowledge that sometimes more revenue for the government can produce better outcomes. And in the case of all legislators, courage means an unshakeable dedication to honest budgets, truthful accounting, open government and governing for the people rather than for personal gain or narrow interests. 

Now, it becomes clear why a 31 year old who has been unemployed for over a year – using a ballot title he may have dubious claim to is getting spent on so lavishly. Kiley was remiss to sign the no new taxes pledge. Did he really mean it when he signed it? Should we save copies of his campaign flyers to remind him of it when he votes to raise our taxes as an assembly-member?

Govern for California went on a late spending rampage with $203,000 in support of Kevin Kiley after young Mr. Kiley started getting nailed for taking over $200k from them as an intermediary. Kiley has little, if any real support in the district and it is safe to say that he has had 2/3 of his support raised (or spent) for him by this committee.

David Crane the principal of Govern California – who appears to be on an ego-fueled rampage driving the late, furious Independent Expenditure is a democrat who worked in the Arnold administration. Like many wealthy people, he appears to have very thin skin and appears to have determined that it is time to teach us little people a lesson for merely pointing out accurate facts about him and his other donors.

If you think I am off base – then ask why Crane featured himself in one of the mail pieces he sent on Kevin Kiley’s behalf. This is a clear indicator of his ego being bruised as a result of the scrutiny. How could you not conclude that this group of bay area liberals are attempting to install a marionette in one of the most conservative assembly districts in California?

The antipathy for strategy and the hubris that has driven at least 5 of the candidates on the #AD06 Ballot who have no path to victory to file in this tilt has created the perfect storm to enable such a group to try to flex their muscles and defraud the Conservative AD06 out of representation once again. Kevin Kiley has been caught multiple times saying different things to different groups of people, how will we ever know what he believes?

Another likely outcome is that this late flurry of spending will halt the momentum of Bill Halldin or Andy Pugno to finish in the top two, thus setting up a dem vs dem runoff this fall in the 47% Republican District. Since Crane is a democrat, I am not sure he’d be sad if his money helped create that situation.

David Crane is profiled on Wikipedia. You will notice that Mr. Crane was on the California High Speed Rail Advisory Board – you’d sure think this is a reason why young Mr. Kiley attempted to split the baby on the High Speed Rail issue. His main benefactor is completely sold out to High Speed Rail. Kiley says in the on line version of the Bee’s Candidate Page that HSR is “Very Unimportant” to him, while claiming to oppose it!

I have no clue what the outcome of the AD06 election will be – but I do know this, should Kevin Kiley make it over Andy or Bill, he has a lot of explaining to do beyond telling people what they want to hear.

Jun 032016
 

IMG_3928Ouch.

I mean this was EPIC. Joe Justin’s Mail for Bill Halldin has been outstanding all across the board. But in this case, the Andy Pugno / Jeff Evans combination fired on all cylinders.

I focus on points 4 and 5: Kiley claims to be a “Deputy Attorney General”, but he’s never prosecuted a single crime. (#EPICBURN)

Kiley is long-term unemployed. (which is also true as he has been unemployed for over a year)

Pugno, who has been getting blasted with at least 6 mailers himself just unloaded on Kevin Kiley – just as Kiley was getting a bailout from his Bay-Area Liberal Handlers.

This race is going to be a complete train-wreck until election day.

Bonus – Pugno has been hammering Kiley over his opposition to Prop 8 as well – rightly pointing out that Kiley is remiss to take a stand on transgender bathrooms. Given that most people are worried about their safety and future – IMO the fact that Pugno unloaded on him for being an unemployed prosecutor with no criminal justice experience is more devastating than the social issues attack is.

IMG_3926Not to be outdone – the Bill Halldin Campaign did their own excavation of the Kiley Potemkin Village Campaign:

Kiley has taken 200k+ in liberal bay area donor money – including Obama bundlers!

It highlights how Kiley moved to Rocklin in 2015 and rented an apartment, then immediately started running for office.

And of course – it points out that Kevin Kiley is a deputy of Extreme Left-Wing Attorney General Kamala Harris.

Young Mr. Kiley has been hit 6 times. (Not counting the beating being administered on social media) No wonder why the Bay Area Liberals had to attempt a last minute bailout. Liberals love bailouts.