I have been sharply critical of decisions being made by California Senate Republican Caucus Strategist Matt Klemin – the issues are two-fold, he is paid $152,000 a year to lose races and number 2 it has been put to me by several people that he makes a lot of decisions in a vacuum which may mean some of my past criticisms permanent minority leader Shannon Grove may have been misplaced. Did I mention that Matt Klemin loses races? SD12, SD14 and SD34 in 2018. (SD-XX = California State Senate District XX)
Only Scott Wilk in SD21 looks like he will be OK, but he is in for a slugfest. However, the problem vexing Scott Wilk is the overlaid CA25 Race. This is the Katie Hill seat and she was the millennial golden girl for the national socialist party. She was taken down when her out of control lifestyle was exposed by Red State Blogger Jennifer Van Laar – the scandal was quick and ferocious. Now the national dems want to assuage their bruised ego.
Relatively unknown businessman Mike Garcia is the GOP Standard-Bearer in CA25. If the DCCC pours money in to CA25, Wilk could be in trouble due to the over-spray. Do note that I am endorsing the nominee of the GOP Mike Garcia in CA-25 in addition to always being a fan of Scott Wilk.
Wilk’s strong showing was pretty much because of his efforts and relationships. He got token support from Matt Klemin and the Senate Caucus – while outside interests came in strong for him.
Remember – Matt Klemin is paid $152,000 a year from the State Senate Caucus (even though it shows up on the CAGOP’s financial report – see the end of the post for why that is) to get the Senate Caucus shrunk from 15-10 members over the last decade. I could hire people from the rescue mission and get the same result.
You will see that Matt Klemin decided that pumping $150,000 in to SD05 candidate Jesus Andrade was a great idea. Andrade is in 4th place and that result is unlikely to change. In fact, Klemin’s decision could have cost the GOP a candidate in the runoff. Now Andrade is replaced with a democrat on the Stockton City Council.
It gets better – Both Ling Ling Chang and John Moorlach received tepid support from the Senate GOP Caucus – again at the direction of Matt Klemin:
Both of these incumbent State Senators are in clear and present danger. When the incumbent is held under 50 (remember there is no 50+1 provision) regardless of the unique rules of Prop 14, it is a signal of danger. In this case, both Moorlach and Ling Ling received less support than the 4th place finisher Jesus Andrade.
It is the opinion of this blogger that Matt Klemin will be overseeing the loss of two more State Senators. I’d love very much to be able to write something different. The ray of hope for Ling Ling Chang is that CA-39 is going to be competitive in the fall with Young Kim running strong against Lotto Boy. That will be a $10Million Race for Congress almost certainly. Will Michael Bloomberg take all those employees he lied to (he laid his political staff off after promising them jobs through november) and send them in to Orange County like he did in 2018?
Similar to how CA-25 could affect Scott Wilk, so will CA-39 affect Ling Ling Ling Chang.
John Moorlach has no such help in CA-45 as John Thomas’ incompetence led Don Sedgwick in to a political brick wall and Greg Raths finished second. Raths is noted for not being a good fundraiser and the NRCC appears to have pulled back from CA-45.
This leads us to the $1.5 Million Golden Girl Rosilicie Ochoa-Bogh. On paper, she looks like a strong candidate. In the primary, I lit her up good largely because of my frustration over the jam down of party endorsements and the coronation of her by political insiders.
The lie that was being told was that the money had to go in to Rosilicie because Lloyd White was going to split the GOP vote up causing a D vs D runoff in SD23. That became a proven lie as on election night Lloyd White was in first place. This means that absent $1Million in attacks, Lloyd White finishes first in the SD23 Primary. Based on my knowledge of the situation, I am of the belief that lie was largely propagated by Matt Klemin. Despite my frustrations with Shannon Grove, I do not see her as a bald-faced liar.
Before you celebrate the 9.5% differential between Republicans and Democrats – remember the $1.5 Million poured in to Rosilicie. Will another $1.5 Million be there in the fall – AND – how much do the dems pour in to Abigail Medina? $5Million? They have money to burn.
Also note that the dems spent very little on Medina in the primary. This fact alone should give everyone pause. Since Bogh herself was not responsible for the actions of the party people around her, and despite my real reservations about the situation in general, I do want her to win the SD23 Election. I may at some point get her side of the story and write a piece about the merits of Bogh. (if Bogh’s campaign wants to reach out [email protected] is the place)
There is also the matter of the SD-28 special election. Klemin and crew did finally engage late, but not nearly enough to life Melissa Melendez over the 50% threshold. It remains to be seen if the democrats mount a serious effort. They (the dems) did put a goat on the ballot, John Schwab who was a lifelong democrat and re-registered Republican specifically to split votes off of Melendez. He has also refused to endorse Melendez post primary. The net effect is this is going to cost the Senate GOP Caucus a lot of money to deal with a potential onslaught from said dems. Then layer on persistent rumors that Shannon Grove does not like Melissa Melendez very much and you understand my concern even though I think Melendez will hammer any dem challenger.
This is the state of things on the GOP Senate side as I see them.
Note – The “One Ask” program is where the CAGOP Chair, Senate Caucus Leader and/or the Assembly Caucus Leader make fundraising calls and the money raised is split in thirds between the caucuses. In the case of the Senate – you see a lot of their expenditures (including Klemin’s Salary of $152,000 a year to lose races) come out of the CAGOP’s State Account. This arrangement has existed for years and is perfectly legal.
Also note that SD-XX = California State Senate District XX
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