As I have written, the level of control and meddling by CAGOP leaders in election races is at an all-time high. The palpable anxiety and fear is as well.
Let’s cover several of the “Target” Legislative Races:
SD-05. The Jesus Andrade train wreck is getting worse. Fellow Stockton Council-members are hammering the feckless Andrade with attack websites and Andrade has raised about 56K from the last available reports I can see.
SD-21 which is Scott Wilk is rated as a toss-up. The registration has gone underwater for Reps and the national attention on the area (CA-25) is not going to help Wilk’s cause. As I have been interested in the related CA-25 race, I’ve been taking in a ton of information from the area and all indicators are that team Wilk knows they are in for a pretty severe fight in November. From the nooner:
SD-23 which is the retiring Mike Morrell is about even up. The Registration has gone to about D+3
I’ve been told that leadership are worried about SD-21 and SD-23 – so much so that they basically ran a full court press to clear out endorsements for Rosalica Ochoa Bogh over other qualified candidates similar to what I wrote about SD-05. (Although Bob Elliot’s actions are proving that the decision to muscle him out of SD05 may hot have been entirely bad)
However, as I write about district after district trending Democrat – I see and hear little about counter efforts to register Republicans anywhere in California. Either this is because the state party is broke, or what I was told over the last 4 years about the attitude of leadership types towards voter registration is factual.
SD-29 which is the district Josh Newman was recalled out of has been worked hard by the State Democrats and it is my belief that Ling Ling Ling Chang is in serious trouble. Ling Ling is one of the people I think may also be a party jumper under the right circumstances as those rumors persist among those in the lobbyist-donor community. While Josh Newman is parsing his words to people in the district – he did not parse a nice fat Check to Chad Mayes.
SD-37 which is John Moorlach is also a problem. Pretty much everything in Orange County is a problem for the GOP. (Note: I have endorsed John Moorlach)
It is my opinion that Andrade is going to get hammered. I also see 2 of the Senate targets being losers if not all 4.
This would leave only SD-01 as the only Odd-Numbered Senate District that is safe R. (Out of 20!)
SD-28 is in a special election where Melissa Melendez is dealing with a district that is even-up in Registration where former Senator Jeff Stone only won by 3% in his last election. (Note: I have endorsed Melissa)
To that end, SD04 (Nielsen) and SD 36 (Bates) are both within 5% in voter registration. SD04 is my home Senate District.
In 2018, we lost SD12, SD14 (Cannella and Vidak) in addition to SD34 in the Orange County carnage.
SD-08 (Borges) which was gerrymandered to grab all the Republicans in the eastern Central Valley to make SD-05, SD-12, SD-14 more democratic, joins SD16 (Grove) and SD38 (Jones) as the only safe even numbered districts in the Even numbered side (out of 20!) Brian Jones is so fully invested in helping the GOP Caucus that he is running as an also-ran for CA-50, declaring that candidacy only a year in to being a senator.
In Orange County, I have clear data that county is going / has gone blue. This was the heart of the Republican refuseniks from 2016 and the polling numbers show it. Gavin is underwater 25% but Trump is only up 4 in one district I saw. An Adjacent district was about the same. This problem does NOT exist in the north or east of California – yet the leadership types are acting like it does exist statewide. (See also the past comments I made about GOP squishes trying to import that ideology to all parts of the state regardless of the makeup of other districts)
As I have continued getting intel and feedback from people that know about such things, the attitude within the insider GOP ranks is very tense and nervous. It is not out of the realm of possibility to see the GOP down to 6 Senators when the dust settles from the 2020 election.
So what will the solution be? Keep re-electing the same leaders that are failing? It is clear that they are upset over people like myself and Steve Frank (among others) writing about the insider machinations, but we are all still awaiting some solutions.
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