Jan 312020
 

Hat tip to Chad Mayes AD-42 NPP Assemblyman for catching the over 100 Facebook Ads loaded in the CAGOP’s Facebook account. The Oligarchy of Controlled Failure has struck again…

First Off – your intrepid blogger has gotten persistent and nagging rumors (all hearsay, but from people with tentacles in DC) that Shannon Grove is interviewing for a Job in the Trump Administration. She has been seen in Washington DC and my inside sources indicate it was for more than legislative business. Note – Grove and Congressional Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy are allies politically. This means then, that IF TRUE, Grove would be well positioned for said job.

The significance of this can not be understated. The CAGOP is leaderless and rudderless. The people on the inside know the titanic is headed for the iceberg yet again and Grove is facing the loss of at least two of her colleagues, maybe as many as 4. Senator Jeff Stone jumped late last year, so why not Grove As well?

In case you missed my piece on why I believe the CAGOP will lose 2-4 State Senators, you can catch it here.

I am also being told that the cash cow RNC Delegation Drill in California is not going smoothly. The drill is a multi-million dollar operation being run by CAGOP Chair Jessica Patterson, Andy Garakhani and David Stafford Reade (among others) they will be splitting hundreds of thousands in commission dollars.

Speaking of things not going smoothly – I was alerted to Chad Mayes’ twitter feed where he was bragging about his leftist message being adopted by the CRP. I went to the CAGOP’s Facebook page and literally saw over 100 new ads dated 1-27-2020. They all ran for brief periods of time. You can see them under the new Facebook transparency feature. They were ads about Gun-Grabbing, Climate Change, “Dreamers” and a Non-Partisan Legislature. I did not get a picture about the “Common Sense Gun Laws” or Background Check advocacy pieces, but I did get others… read on.

When I worked for Travis Allen for CAGOP Chair – we warned you about “Reframing the message”. This was the $500K waste of money commissioned by the former Republican Chad Mayes. The whole aim was how to adopt democrat talking points as Republicans. Steve Frank warned you.

We warned you that this would become the calling card of the Jessica Patterson-David Reade-Andy Gharakhani GOP. We knew the vision of failed GOP Leadership was to use marionettes to control the outcome of the election and the party to crush dissent and usher in the “New Way”.

As seen on Chad Mayes’ Twitter Feed – DREAMers Ad Paid for by CAGOP

As seen on the CAGOP’s Facebook Page – FIGHT CLIMATE CHANGE

This one may as well have been written by Chad Mayes himself!

I read other people’s writings and they allege that the Suicide of the CAGOP has been deliberate. Travis Allen was right. Steve Frank was right. The CAGOP is leaderless and rudderless. I am not sure what they think they will gain as they have spent $700K+ on facebook since 2018, and if this is what they are sending people will just vote for the real thing. (ahem, democrats)

Chad Mayes also looks like an idiot for bolting the GOP as they adopted his talking points – look at the gloating on his twitter feed and the encouragement from the swamp creatures, lobbyists and consultants on his feed.

Given that Shannon Grove is reputedly looking to jump ship along with Brian Jones (who is running for Congress) and Jeff Stone is already gone from the State Senate – what a vote of confidence that is from the people on the inside about the future of the CAGOP?

Meantime, us rubes get looked down upon disdainfully because we actually believe in something, it appears that more than Chad Mayes hold that disdain for the rest of us.

Now you can read this piece about why I think we are in for a loss of 4-7 seats in the Assembly with renewed meaning. 2 Have already bolted, as many as three more are expected to bolt and a few more may lose outright. Given what’s going on can you blame any of them for jumping off a sinking ship?

There is a part of me that is actually glad that the Consultants and Staff took over the CAGOP and that Jessica Patterson and crew aborted conservatives off all of the Committees of the CAGOP. There are no straw men left to blame and they own the entire disaster. Now that gives even more clarity to why Mrs. Grove may be looking to bolt herself.

To be continued…

Jan 312020
 

Some people within the GOP have been sounding alarm bells. As I’ve been writing about various and sundry political races across California, I’ve seen it.

Unless there is an intervention – get ready.

The Oligarchy of Controlled Failure I call them. “They” have been earning a living off of the failure that has characterized the CAGOP for 20+ years. Other than the fact that our State GOP Chair makes $200K a year now, nothing else has changed. We’ve talked about blacklists, and the machinations of control by those in positions of influence. These machinations have gotten more severe now that the universe has shrunk to 18 out of 80 Assembly Seats (or 22.5%)

Your intrepid blogger decided to take a step back and look at the 80 Assembly Seats up for election in 2020, I believe that the GOP will lose another 4 Assembly Seats, with as many as 7 possible.

First Off – AD-XX = Assembly District XX.

Let’s look at the districts with no Republican Running: AD-07, 11, 17, 21, 45, 46, 48, 50, 51, 53, 58, 63, 64, 78. Interesting that AD-21 was once considered winnable for the GOP. That is 14 out of 80, 17.5%. My best guess is that an additional 10 will be without a Republican in the runoff. So about 1/3 of Assembly Districts, along with half the Senate Districts.

Let’s look at a list of recently lost Assembly Districts with doomed challengers in 2020: AD-16 (the home of liberal hero Catherine Baker), AD-32, AD-40 (Steinorth), AD-60 (formerly Eric Linder), AD-65 (Orange County), AD-66 (I love Artie Schaper, but he is doomed), AD-76 (Lost just last cycle because no Rep made the runoff) and AD-77 (The moonshine seat). I pulled registration numbers in all of these and R-8 was the closest.

This makes me remember the conversation I had in 2016 with a couple of legislators who told me they researched doing voter registration and determined it was not worthwhile. It looks like anywhere the Dems want to run the numbers up in, they can. It is like the people that foisted the current leadership upon the CAGOP threw in the towel in 2016, or before.

The weak leadership of the GOP has also seen several defections over the last several years. Brian Moonshine, the Narcissistic Rampage of Chad Mayes, Nathan Fletcher (remember him?) and others. In addition, you basically have the headquarters of the never-trumper movement in California. I’ve named several of the overpaid consultants over the years in various posts and a remnant of them are at the helm of the latest rendition of the titanic.

Let’s take a look at the Republican and “Target” Districts: (Bold are seats that are in play)

AD-01 Megan Dahle – She has an NPP opponent who has dropped $350K in to his campaign. It is alleged by my contacts all over the north state that Erin Ryan and Brenda Haynes – both State of Jefferson people and staffers of rival politicians are behind this opponent. AD-01 is considered Safe R, but with friends like Erin Ryan and Brenda Haynes it may not stay that way. From Steve Frank:

Is any GOP’er safe in California?  Or is this just an effort to soften up an incumbent in preparation for the 2021 redistricting, which could soften this GOP district.  Another Politico  analysis, “SELF FUNDER: Assemblywoman Megan Dahle would seem to be in a good position to retain her staunchly conservative AD-1 seat, but she’s facing a well-funded challenge: no-party-preference challenger PK Paul Dhanuka on Thursday dropped another $150,000 into his campaign, bringing his self-supplied total to $350,000 so far.

AD-03 James Gallagher, considered Safe but the registration margin has slipped to +5.9%. Chico, CA is a wasteland at 25% GOP Registration and is the largest city in that district. Losing 5,000 GOP voters (at least) to the Camp Fire did not help either.

AD-05 Frank Bigelow, 10+% margin, safe. I was also quite surprised to find out that Bigelow has one of the most conservative voting records in the legislature. (But, he is a total organizational liberal)

AD-06 Kevin Kiley. My home District is over 10% to the good for the GOP

AD-12 Heath Flora. He replaced Kristen Olsen, and his district has slipped to only +3.3% GOP Registration. I am not sure why there is not a big registration push in AD12 and AD03 for that matter. Given that the nationally targeted CA-10 Race is overlaid onto AD-12, there should be voter registration ongoing. (but, there is little if any)

AD-23 Jim Patterson. While Patterson is unopposed in 2020, his district has slid to only +4.6% GOP Registration. Look for the dems to file a write in to qualify for the fall.

AD-26 Devon Mathis. Now that the scumbag Sean Doherty has been totally discredited, exposed and flushed out of the political ecosystem in CA, Mathis should serve the rest of his terms in peace. The District is about +8%, the scandals that beset Mathis turned out to be unfounded and driven mostly by Mr. Doherty (conclusion drawn based on my research).

AD-33 Obernolte. While considered Safe, this is because Jay worked this district hard and has higher than usual name ID. If he is replaced by a lazy term-limit baby Republican, this district will disappear. It is only +1.4% GOP. This seat could be lost right out from underneath Jay Obernolte while he is being elected to  CA-08 in 2020.

AD-34 Vince Fong. This Bakersfield based District is as safe as they get for a Republican in California.

AD-35 Jordan Cunningham – this is going to be world war three. The Dems are coming after him and I am not sure why. Jordan Cunningham got $2000 from the Teacher’s Union, voted in favor of AB5 to kill jobs and is a tax raiser. I will make a prediction – Jordan Cunningham gets re-elected, then bolts the GOP citing Re-districting and his need to represent the majority of the new district as the excuse. Remember, Jordan was the third of the “Mayes Three” along with Moonshine and Mayes that were supposed to exit the GOP and start their own mini-party. Quoting the nooner:

AD35 (San Luis Obispo): There is a new independent expenditure effort to support the re-election of Assembly member Jordan Cunningham (R) in his central coast seat with the coalition’s latest contribution by the state’s prison guards union of $150,000. Thus, far, the committee has spent $54,167 on digital ads. It’s sort of odd timing, as Jordan faces only one challenger–Morro Bay council member Dawn Addis (D)–in March, meaning that the campaign is all about November which is political light years from now.

AD-36 Tom Lackey – this district is nearly D+10. Lackey has been rumored to be a potential party jumper (I am not sure I agree with that rumor). Regardless, he is the dems #1 target and will likely get a $5 Million bomb dropped on his head – in addition to the overlaid CA-25 Race in the area. (Remember Katie Hill?)

AD-38 OPEN. Remember Republican Dante Acosta defeated in 2018?, or the brainless dem leadership marionette Christy Smith who was ordered to run for Congress? This district has been pounded with dem dollars, yet is still a tossup. (it is about D+5) The question is weather the remnants of GOP in California can muster the resources to elect Suzette Martinez. This district is completely encased in CA-25 and the dems will be all over it like locusts.

AD-42 Narcissistic Rage. Chad Mayes is running for re-election as an NPP. Much to his chagrin, the GOP was able to file an opponent Andrew Kotyuk against Mayes. However, the Chair of the GOP could not help herself demanding that the candidate (Kotyuk) ditch his long time staffer (Nathan Miller) or else. Or else what? (Note that Miller almost single-handedly got Kotyuk onto the ballot in less than 24 hours). Will the GOP have anything for Kotyuk beyond the $20K or so the State Party has sent him? The Trump-Haters really want Mayes to get re-elected. To that end, check out Chad Mayes’ campaign finance reports with dem legislators and leftist labor unions. Mayes recently bagged the endorsement of equality California – an extreme left-wing social justice group all about a sexual orientation.

From Scott Lays The Nooner, “AD42 (Yucaipa): There are a couple of interesting contributions on Chad Mayes‘s year-end report that came in after he announced he re-registered from the Republican Party to No Party Preference. GOP political consultant and “never Trumper” Mike Madrid chipped in $100 and recalled State Senator Josh Newman (D) sent in $250. Newman will face Senator Ling Ling Chang (R), who won the office after Newman was recalled, in November.

There is also $1,000 from extreme left wing former Assemblymember Mike Gatto.

AD-55 Phillip Chen. This is yet another district where the Registration has slid right out from underneath GOP leadership. Long considered a rockstar in GOP circles, Chen is now in for a difficult re-election. Orange County is about the only area where the paranoid anti-trump fantasies are true. (As in Trump being a drag on Republicans) It is likely that the Democrats take a run at Chen.

AD-67 Safe R Open. This is the Melissa Melendez seat.

AD-68 Stephen Choi. This district is now in the R+3 range. Choi is in trouble and will be targeted. His gaffe related to Bill Brough did not help matters either.

AD-71 Voepel. This is considered safe, BUT it is completely encased under CA-50 (Duncan Hunter). If CA-50 ends up in an upheaval, and Carl DiMaio and Darrell Issa are going 15 rounds there, AD-71 could be affected by it.

AD-72 Tyler Diep. Diep is easily the most liberal Republican, infesting a seat once held by Travis Allen. Allen even helped elect Diep who promptly turned on him. Diep was un-endorsed by the OCGOP who have called on the CAGOP to honor their by-laws. Given the connection between Diep and current party leadership that he helped elect by betraying Travis Allen I am not sure if the State Party will follow suit. This district is about R+3 and the Janet Nguyen challenge to Diep is legitimate.

Diep voted for AB5 – the gig worker death bill, he also made a bevy of horrible votes on other bills (taxes, gun-grabbing, etc). Diep would have been in trouble by virtue of his own stupidity, but add in the other drama and this seat is on the death list for sure.

Should Diep win in March – he will bolt the GOP citing the Party withdrawing its’ endorsement as the excuse. This is even as he has met with Dem leader Anthony Rendon to negotiate a deal for himself to go full Mainschein.

AD-73 William “Bill” Brough. If Brough makes it through in to the runoff, this seat is gone. Brough’s continued presence in the race and on the ballot is testimony, beyond the recent party jumpers to the weakness of Assembly / Senate leadership by itself. The Scandal-Riddled Bill Brough was protected until late in filing due to political calculations, morals be dammed. AD-73 would otherwise be a Safe R Seat. (look up our expose on Bill Brough for more info)

AD-74 Cottie Petrie-Norris-Norris. Here is an R-leaning district infested by a democrat. The previous GOP Legislator Matthew Harper was ascerbic and refused to raise money or be a team player with other members of the legislature. As a result, the democrats took him by surprise in a good year for democrats nationally. Demonstrating their immunity to learning from mistakes and the terminal leadership weakness – there is a contested and expensive primary for the privilege of going against Cottie Petrie-Norris-Norris.

The dems will have limitless resources to pour in to AD-74. If Kelly Ernby somehow upsets Newport Beach Mayor Diane Dixon, the dems will be able to blow Choi and Diep out of office as they will need to spend far less dealing with Ernby than they would with Dixon. (look up our posts about Ernby for more info)

AD-75 Marie Waldron. She is the Assembly Permanent Minority Leader who (for now) has a safe seat.

Now you understand why Republican Leadership are sweating bullets. Simple numbers suggest it is going to be difficult, beyond the contributions of the players involved to the issues.

To be continued…

Jan 302020
 

In the next 34 days, we have a lot to do! I appreciate any help you can give. Here is a list of ways to get involved:

  1. Neighborhood canvassing event Saturday, February 1st.

    1. Location is to be announced later, but we will be meeting at 10:00am, doing a quick training on the app, and heading out to nearby neighborhoods. In addition to technical training, literature and talking points will be given. You will be knocking a GOP universe with each house having at least 1 GOP member in it.

    2. What to bring: Fully Charged Smart Phone and comfortable shoes.

    3. Be on the lookout for email with location details.

    4. If want to canvass BEFORE February 1st, let us know and we will get you set up!

  2. Information gathering

    1. Being able to reach out to people is of the utmost importance. We are looking for any emails and phone/cell phone numbers you have. Voter registration information is a partial list of numbers and emails, and many are outdated. Feel free to send non GOP lists, but please identify those as such as they will be targeted differently.

    2. Email phone lists and email lists to [email protected]

    3. Phone numbers will be added to our texting and calling list, and emails to our mail list.

  3. Campaign Supplies

    1. If you have anything that can save money such as yard stakes for signs, it would be much appreciated. The metal wires are costly and breakable. We have received 1 box already, but if anyone has more laying around, it would save money on our upcoming sign purchases.

    2. Any supplies you have are greatly appreciated.

  4. Sign Team

    1. A big thank you to everyone that is putting up signs all around district 3. We have put out about 200 so far in yards and on streets with way more to come in the next few days.

    2. If you would like to be part of our sign team, email me and I will get you signs to put out.

    3. We are using google maps to keep track of where our signs are, and where other signs are (opponents or other campaigns). We want to make sure our signs are everywhere to build name recognition.

    4. If you notice areas in need of signs, whether good spots or other campaign signs there and ours absent, please let us know the locations by email.

  5. Social Media

    1. Please like and share the page www.facebook.com/MurrayPC3. We have got great traction for free so far, and it is a great way to get the word out.

    2. Share posts and comment!

  6. Walk on your time

    1. If you cannot join in on the 1st for an app training, or would like training earlier to start canvassing earlier, we can get you trained up at your convenience and get you set up in the area of your choosing. The app is user friendly and has all the information you need about the voters.

    2. Canvass at your own convenience in the areas you want!

  7. Sign waving

    1. We are going to start doing sign waving at busy intersections/streets, in front of churches before and after mass on Sundays, and other busy events in our area. We will put out a schedule later, but if anyone wants to do so before, we can get you a sign or multiple to do so!

  8. Phone calls and Texting

    1. Both will be app based and can be done in your free time. Even with them being app based, the calls and texts are anonymous and from proxy numbers. Text messaging can be done quickly, but phone calls will require more time, and where more help is needed. These will start closer to when ballots are mailed out, and to the VBM voters first.

  9. Events

    1. Going to events and learning our county inside and out is important for me and the campaign. I personally cannot make every event but would love to have representatives at as many as possible. If you would like to attend events, it would be very helpful.

    2. Please email me any events in our community you think would be good to attend.

       (10) Fundraising

    1. This is a budget campaign that relies on the efforts of individuals more than money, but there are still many costs associated with the campaign. If anyone does want to donate, or knows of anyone that does, a check is preferred, but VoteMikeMurray.com has a donate link that makes the process quick and painless.

Thank you all so much for any help you can give! This campaign, our campaign, is not about any one person, but for all of us. I appreciate everything you can do to help and can’t do this without you! We have a lot to do in 34 days, and it’s time to fight for Placer County!

Feel free to email/call/text any questions or suggestions at any time!

Thank you again,

Mike Murray

Candidate for Placer County Supervisor District 3

[email protected]

(916) 432-7199

VoteMikeMurray.com

Jan 302020
 

There is something called vetting. You vet a candidate. Perhaps candidates pop up out of the political sewer and manifest before the sanitation crew can get to them. There is a reason why Kelly Seyarto is getting the support that matters in AD-67. Kelly Seyarto while not perfect, is clean as far as candidates go about as clean as they get.

Manos? No one I know down there likes him. I went looking for reasons why. (AD-XX = California’s XX Assembly District. ) Worse, several people told me they think he is “Shady”

Steve Manos is a Realtor and A “Businessowner” according to his website. The problem for Manos is there is more than meets the eye. I first suspected something was wrong with Manos’ publicly stated biography when I saw his notation about UCLA. Manos went to UCLA for a year. I went to Fresno State for a Year. I do not mention it so as not to fool people in to thinking I graduated from Fresno State. Given that I was warned Manos has an integrity problem, the UCLA thing went from the usual candidate BS to a huge red flag.

This meme is an oldie but goodie. Rather than reinvent the wheel, I salute the original creator by re-using their work

Your intrepid blogger has learned that Steve Manos has been sued successfully several times. All of the instances appear to be due to Manos being dishonest and getting caught for it.

I’ve also run a business for 22 1/2 years in Insurance. Steve Manos has accomplished something I have never come close to. He’s been sued SUCCESSFULLY twice in “Big Court”, once in small claims court and liened so many times I lost count. Steve Manos can not be trusted to run anything let alone the state of California.

ERA franchise systems, LLC successfully sued Steve Manos for $86,949. ERA Franchise systems was also known as ERA Real Estate.

It appears that Steve Manos had a franchise with ERA Real Estate, breached his contract and was nailed for $86,949. Whoops. That is not exactly a successful business owner. 

Further research shows that Manos was also Sued successfully by a Trust related to a Real Estate Transaction:

A Family Trust is typically set up for an estate and houses are usually re-titled in to the trust. This suggests that Manos got lit up once again in Court, likely for dishonesty in a real estate transaction. I am sure the court filings will be awesome once I get them. UPDATE: Further research indicates that the Trust was a landlord that sued and evicted Steve Manos over $25,000 worth of bills. 

Now, are you starting to understand what’s wrong with Steve Manos? You can’t trust him. He lied on his biography, embellishing it and when researched shows to be a dishonest realtor and businessman.

Perhaps this dishonesty was also manifest when the Riverside Press-Enterprise had to get a judgement against him for a $3096 advertising bill:

From 2004 – 2008 Steve Manos must have been in court constantly dealing with lawsuits. 

Now, if I am Steve Manos, I would not bother showing up for an interview with the Riverside Press-Enterprise. This is of course assuming Mr. Manos has any remorse for the decisions he has made in his life. It would be awfully brazen to ask a business to endorse you that had to sue you for not paying your bills!

Here is your introduction to Steve Manos:

Successfully Sued for $87K by a former Real Estate Franchisor he had a contract with.

Successfully Sued for $25K by a former Real Estate Landlord

Successfully Sued for $3100 by the Riverside Press Enterprise for not paying his bills.

If Steve Manos ends up in the runoff with a democrat he will get slaughtered. But wait, there’s more… (to be continued…)