AD06 Race Update – Flip Flopping? Avoiding Grassroots? More Candidates?

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Oct 282015

Remember our post about Lincoln Council-member Gabriel Hydrick joining the AD06 race? Two of his colleagues support Bill Halldin. The other two have not endorsed.

Since posting about Hydrick and hearing about Hydrick, we have heard nothing further. However local Lincoln area electeds beyond the two council-members support Bill Halldin, including Supervisor Robert Weygant.

There was a recent event with the remnant of the Placer CRA which once had 105 members before surrendering its’ charter in May. An estimated 15-20 people were there that were not brought by candidates.

Nugget 1: Cristi Nelson was not present. Every other candidate was. This has been consistent with Nelson’s pattern – she is reputed to be an elitist, preferring to hang around “Money People” only. Secondly, as we have chronicled – she is a social liberal and probably wanted to avoid legitimate questions about her liberal views versus what she claims on her website.

Nugget 2: Kevin Kiley flip-flopped on the No New Taxes Pledge? After saying publicly, he does not take pledges. He did.

Nugget 3: Suzanne Jones appears to have a loyal, hard-core constituency that may help her get some traction in this race. The remnants of the CRA appear to be one such constituency.

Recently, I heard then verified that Ron “Mik” Mikaluco – the embattled El Dorado County D1 Supervisor is talking openly about running for Assembly. This means that Mik has recognized that the serial office-shopper is a formidable candidate he may not be able to deal with and that his best bet is to run for something else. If true, this is a serious boost to Steve Ferry – who is widely regarded as the best chance El Dorado County voters have to free themselves from the chains of Gaines.

Cristi Nelson recently held a fundraiser. Reports indicate that most of the attendees were employees of a large, local business who were there at the behest of the owner in order to create photo-ops for the campaign. Nelson has another fundraiser with a 6-person host committee that just added Senator Gaines to the invite. (No Beth Gaines sighting yet – adding to our suspicions of confusion)

Lastly – I took note of how the announcement of Clay Sigg presented him as the leading candidate in the race, yet neglected the McClintock endorsement of Sigg. Current McClintock endorsee Kevin Hanley has posted about it on Facebook, but nowhere else is it featured. McClintock did endorse Kevin McCarthy for speaker, so you’d think that people would be more excited about such an endorsement. (especially since Hanley just had a fundraiser with McClintock as the headliner!)

AD06 Update – So Many People Got Screwed Over Today, I Can’t Keep Track…

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Oct 132015

Let’s Catch Everyone up.

A few days ago, it got out that recent entrant and rumored Team Gaines recruit Kevin Hanley was attempting to recruit staff for his AD06 campaign. The would-be staffer was from Auburn. The first endorsement Kevin Hanley announced was from Auburn, though the gentleman lives in Rocklin.

Some speculated that Ted and Beth Gaines would endorse Kevin Hanley. We even did on this blog, however, a couple of weeks ago we had become convinced that Team Gaines was going to gravitate to the strongest anti-south-placer candidate they could.

Mind you, Congressman Tom McClintock is alleged to be endorsing Kevin Hanley.

But Today, Ted Gaines endorsed the Republican (who you will have to vote for first before you find out what’s in) – Cristi Nelson. We do know that Cristi Nelson is a social liberal and a lawyer.

Did the Gaines make a deal with Cristi Nelson in order to get support for their planned runs in 2018, 2019 and 2020? Or was it as simple as sssssssteve Davey and Dave Titus needing to line up their next jobs in the capitol?

Ironically, Kevin Kiley, the third viable AD06 candidate is also a Lawyer. (BTW – Bill Halldin is NOT a Lawyer)

Today, Mr. Kiley also announced that he hired Dave Gilliard as his consultant. This would be Dave Gilliard’s second 30-something client. (although Assemblymember James Gallagher is on the downhill side of 30 as opposed to the 30-year-old Kiley)

So, Kevin Hanley got screwed. We know that.

Team Gaines has split up. Gilliard went to Kiley (who he would not have considered until recently) and Ted went to Cristi Nelson.

Why would Ted Gaines endorse before the incumbent assembly-member?

Beth Gaines? Though AD06 is the seat she currently represents, she could have ether gotten confused in all the moves or is waiting to make sure she has rehearsed all of her talking points thoroughly before endorsing Cristi Nelson. (who, did we mention is a social liberal?)

The Gaines duo are now on their fourth heir-apparent in the AD06 endorsement Carousel. (Titus, Sigg, Hanley and Now Cristi Nelson – maybe they will endorse Suzanne Jones and Gabriel Hydrick by the time we are done, too?) This is going to make their former Tea-Party base even angrier.

So – it looks like the Gaines just flipped almost everyone in local government in South Placer County the bird as well. I am not sure how their decision to endorse an un-vetted unknown candidate with fundraisers comprised of 6 person host committees could be seen any other way?

Is Tom McClintock considering endorsing Cristi Nelson now? (Because I don’t see him noted anywhere on Kevin Hanley’s website) Were McClintock to endorse Nelson, he’d be one candidate behind the Gaines on the endorsement carousel.

Kevin Kiley hired Dave Gilliard and Gilliard’s fundraiser of choice John Bovee. That likely means there were other shoes that dropped.

The bottom line here appears as follows: Dave Gilliard needed a candidate. Team Gaines needed a candidate. They found their candidates and a bunch of people got screwed in the process.

How Many People Donated to Beth Gaines’ Supervisor Campaign Without Knowing It?

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Sep 272015

Beth Gaines Ended 2014 with $205,214.72 in her Assembly Account. It currently shows $93,438.63 after a “transfer” of $80,000 in to the County Supervisor Account.

ON March 3rd, Beth Gaines held a fundraiser in to a Board of Equalization account that was billed as a fundraiser for Republicans in Target Districts. No, it was not. More on that in a bit.

Beth Gaines’ Board of Equalization Account Reported nothing left as of 6/30/2015 as the money raised went to Dave Titus, Campaign Consultants and – you guessed it – $20k to her Assembly Account which then passed $80k to the Supervisor Account.

Gaines’ BOE Account has some well-known donors: Lincoln Councilmember Paul Joiner, Rocklin Councilmember Scott Yuill, Rocklin Councilmember Diana Ruslin,  all of whom have endorsed Bill Halldin for Assembly. The significance is that Beth Gaines is currently on her third candidate to run against him for Assembly.

I am sure Bill Halldin, who also shows up on her report(s) for $1,025 total would not have donated if he knew the money was going to her next post-move bid for office. The previously mentioned donors have all endorsed Bill Halldin’s Assembly Campaign, but would they have donated to the Gaines if they knew she was planning to move and run for her next office elsewhere?

There are also a slew of donors that do not play in local races – such as insurance carriers and insurance PAC’s. Would they have donated if they knew her plan?

In case you are not tracking me… Take a look at this link to the Beth Gaines for Supervisor Account. The above are now donors to that, whether they like it or not.

Now, it becomes a mess beyond the ethics of it. When you transfer campaign money, you have to attribute the source – the Brother of El Dorado Supervisor Brian Veerkamp is now a donor, along with embattled El Do Auditor-Controller Joe Harn. These are de-facto endorsements that these men will have explain, because they donated to a Republican Leadership Event hosted by Beth Gaines.

Bill Halldin – whose $1,025 is now in Beth Gaines’ Supervisor Account will be repaid for his donations by Team Gaines and their crew attempting to sabotage his Assembly Campaign. The other local electeds would have had no way of knowing what they were doing when they donated. Here is hoping they can help Bill Halldin raise a lot of money.

Which gets us to the main issue here. We wrote about the attacks that were fomented against Placer D4 Supervisor Kirk Uhler. We identified the source of the attacks as Beth Gaines’ staffers. The attacks took place in January, the attack was retracted in February and we day-lighted Dave Titus and Jeff Short as the source in March. Once it became clear that Kirk Uhler was too hard of a target even for the tens of thousands Beth had in her accounts…

Ms. Gaines set her sights on El Dorado County – within Days, the El Dorado Grand Jury lit up the incumbent almost on cue. One of Gaines’ long-time political allies is a leader on that Grand Jury. Look at the timing of the Grand Jury Report and the Timing of all the money transfers setting up the run for El Dorado County Supervisor … they are within two days of each other.

Beth Gaines had to know what she was doing when this fundraiser was held. It is well-known in insider circles that Sacramento County Supervisor Roberta MacGlashan, who recently announced she is not running for re-election, appears to have waited on purpose for Beth Gaines to announce her bid for El Dorado County Supervisor before she announced the coming retirement. MacGlashan, after seeing the attack on Kirk Uhler in January, knew that Beth Gaines was seat-shopping. Rumor has it that Beth Gaines may indeed move to Sacramento County for the $130k+ a year salary.

As written previously, Ted Gaines just opened up a Board of Equalization Account for 2018. He gets a free run for it mid-term in his senate term. If he wins, this would set up Beth Gaines to run in a special election in 2019, giving her the same advantage she had in 2011 when her name ID carried her to a 726 vote win. Beth Gaines already has a 2020 State Senate Account opened (Congratulations Paul Joiner, you donated $200 to it somehow)… if you live in El Dorado County, it should demonstrate to you how much you matter to them.

If anyone donates to the Gaines’ again, how do they know their donation will be used for what is alleged in the invitation?

AD06 Update – Team Gaines Switching Candidates?

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Sep 162015

Former Auburn Council-Member Kevin Hanley moved to Rocklin. (Just like Team Gaines pick #1 Dave Titus)

I had received limited intel dating back 6 weeks that Hanley was playing with it. (Running for AD06)

Clay Sigg (Team Gaines Pick #2) has not been catching on anywhere with anyone. The flow of information on Sigg had gone cold.

Bill Halldin – the leading candidate in the race recently announced his 40th significant endorsement. (Popular Roseville Mayor Carol Garcia)

It appears then that the capetbag has been swung from longtime Roseville Resident Beth Gaines (who moved to Rocklin, back to Roseville and now rents in El Dorado County to set up her next government paycheck) – over to Kevin Hanley.

Is it too much to ask for someone with real, actual roots in South Placer County to become one of our local partisan electeds? (At least Ted Gaines’ family goes back 5+ generations in this area, until he squandered that legacy with his failure to lead and his ill-fated and insane campaign against lynched former Congressman John Doolittle)

Similarly, I am curious why Steve Davey seems to favor candidates that look like Ted Gaines in public. Kevin Hanley is indeed a “nice guy”, but is uninspiring in person. Similar to the routine purges of staff in their operation, I am left with the conclusion that Davey does not want anyone that will outshine Gaines. This is nearly impossible to do when juxtaposed with Beth.

I don’t dislike Hanley, but he does not inspire me. When you talk to Bill Halldin, who is also “mild mannered” you can see quickly that he is passionate, knowledgeable and has “it” for a leg candidate. Kevin Kiley is too young (age 30), Cristi Nelson has proven she is not viable (and has as thin a resume as Beth Gaines had before her run) and any other rumored candidates have demonstrated zero ability to raise money.

There is a chance that Clay Sigg is still the Team Gaines Candidate. My money is on him attempting to quietly drop out of the race in favor of Hanley as it appears Davey is no longer pushing him.

This would mean that the Emerson Drive express will have claimed its’ second AD06 candidate. (I have lost count of all the people the Gaines have used and discarded over the years as the stories find me unsolicited almost weekly)

While my interactions with Hanley have been limited, yet positive, I do sincerely question his judgement if indeed he becomes the Team Gaines candidate.

AD06 Race Update: The Campaign Emails Are Coming

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Jul 242015

After 7/1 came and passed, you knew this would happen. The little-known candidates with big dreams would attempt to introduce themselves to the political world. It makes sense, if you have no name ID, you need to attempt to establish legitimacy.

Bill Halldin entered the race and forced the hands of the others. They had to act.

The third such candidate is the team Gaines seat control candidate. Ostensibly, he is a client of Mr. Gilliard – meaning they will likely get the endorsements of the Gun Owners of CA and Jarvis regardless of merit (as has been the pattern in past campaigns). The entry of the seat control candidate this early was deliberate and a sign that team Gaines fears Bill Halldin, not Kevin Kiley or Cristi Nelson. The seat control candidate did not make much noise publicly until Halldin declared – follow the pattern.

Team Gaines is tipping their limited hand and is attempting to muddle Mr. Halldin’s third house fundraising. Beth Gaines is a lame duck and Ted Gaines may as well be – it remains to be seen if Ted Gaines can threaten donors the same way he did in 2011 when Beth rode in to the assembly on name ID without any qualifications.

The second candidate – Kevin Kiley is a fine-looking young man. By all accounts, he appears to be intelligent and articulate. He is a lawyer, he’d better be or else he’d not be a very good lawyer. Mr. Kiley appears to have raised some $50k on his own, not bad. Now, where does the next $200k come from? His first campaign email was pretty much boiler-plate GOP stuff, it remains to be seen what the 30-year-old is able to do in the long haul of the AD06 campaign.

The first candidate – Cristi Nelson – attempted to bluff people out of contending with her $100k check to herself. She also bought the annoying junk mail cards early. In six months, she has managed just five name endorsements and Kevin Kiley appears to have out-raised her. Secondly, I have received several unsolicited stories about her behavior on the campaign trail that suggest that she needs serious refinement as a candidate and may well lack the temperment to relate to anyone in lower socio-economic classes than she is in. She is also a social liberal in AD06 which is 62% pro-life and voted 2-1 for Prop 8.

Nelson sent an email attempting to impress people with her $140k cash on hand. She needs to publicly commit that she is going to spend the $100k of her own that she put in, then it will count. Otherwise, she has $40k in the bank and every astute observer knows that.

There is also the ever-present rumor of Placer COE member Suzanne Jones running for Assembly. This could suggest why she threw her hat in the ring for the recent vacancy on the Placer GOP Cent Com. Jones should have realized that by doing so (and then getting elected to that seat) that she would be in essence taking a side and for the first time would be creating political enemies.

There had been rumors of Big Daddy Jack Duran running for Assembly – I think they are absurd. Big Daddy knows better than to out himself as a democrat in his +15 Republican Supervisor District. Maybe Aggie-Lair-Uh is considering putting his name on the ballot? Maybe Reggie Bronner again? (he just got slaughtered by Robert Weygant for Sup D2 in 2014)

The bottom line is that you have the following dynamic:

Bill Halldin – the only current officeholder. He will have almost unanimous support amongst Placer electeds / business community. Can he expand to the other parts of the district?

Team Gaines Seat Control Candidate – will they be able to freeze enough money away from the other candidates while at the same time convincing them that their candidate is the answer?

Cristi Neslon – she will have to self-fund. In six months, raising $40k and only bagging 5 endorsements means that she will have to make herself viable on her own

Kevin Kiley – will his youth be his downfall? Where does the rest of his money come from? Is there room for him, with older, better-known candidates getting the endorsements and cash?

Suzanne Jones – a second female in the race decimates the only other advantage Nelson may have had. Will Jones have any money to spend?

Democrat? Will the dems stay home and let this go R vs R in order to aid the chances of a liberal republican (like Cristi Nelson) being elected to the seat? However, as we have seen in past races, the dems have the same party discipline problems that the Reps do. At the same time – the top two has actually aided Conservatives in the runoffs with the recent example of Steve Knight in CA25 and Jeff Stone in SD29 trouncing well-financed mod GOP opponents. My money is on the fact that a dem will file. This will shorten this race to June – the dem will finish first due to the number of Republican customers leaving the second place finisher as the shoo-in candidate in the fall.