Mar 032019
 

I am going to start off with a personal note. I am helping Brian Dahle’s campaign. I’ve known Dahle since 2012 when I helped him beat the establishment. It is ironic that three members of the establishment (as Dahle is now part of it) are squaring off for SD01.

I have taken the time to get to know Kevin Kiley a bit since he beat my client Bill Halldin and others for his original election to AD06. That election was traumatic personally because I was attending A local Church where Brian Kiley (Kevin’s Brother) is a pastor. I was retaliated against for my role in Bill Halldin’s campaign – not by Brian or Kevin by the way – but by a Left-Wing Social Justice Warrior and a second pastor on staff there. Apparently, they felt it necessary even after I had a sit down meeting with Brian and the second pastor shortly after the June 2016 primary.

Based on what I have learned in the 2 1/2 years hence, it appears that social justice warrior pastor was too much of a coward to tell me himself, leaving another to tell me I could not lead a sobriety ministry because of my public role on politics. In dramatic irony, he is a frequent critic of the president, lobbing incendiary social media posts at the President. The other pastor there as told to me by others, apparently has a history of destroying people and erratic behavior.

I am a Christian, Sober and a Conservative Republican because of my choices and beliefs – not because of other people’s actions.

I write the above story lest any of you think the stuff I write about is either fun and games or some sort of paid blood sport. It has been 21 years in this political game and it feels more like a calling than a professional endeavor. There is no amount of money that can compensate for the personal toll at times.

I have no animus for Kevin Kiley, I am just disappointed in him. I think he is wasting his talent because he won’t be true to himself. No, I am not referring to unfounded rumors about his personal life. I am referring to him being honest about his background, who he is and what he believes. No one really knows.

I have two basic political issues with Mr. Kiley – #1 is that he had $400,000 in his campaign account in 2018 that he refused to share with his colleagues even as the Assembly GOP was losing 5 seats. Kiley could have written a few $4700 checks and called his liberal donor base in the bay area and replaced the money easily.

However, he was planning #2 which was to declare his intent to run for SD01 before the ink was even dry on the shellacking the GOP took in 2018. I am having a Ted Gaines Deja-Vu moment as the then new Assemblyman was attacking Congressman Doolittle looking for his move up shortly after assuming office. I deserve better from my local representatives than term-limit babies always lining up their next runs. Kevin Kiley is my Assemblyman, and I endured years of both of the Gaines.

Kiley appeared to be making a lot of the right moves as an Assemblyman within the district. He was showing up to events and engaging with local government. It is now my opinion that he was doing it for self-serving reasons to boost his goodwill and name ID for his next steps up the ladder. Kiley has some endorsements, but most of the key endorsements in Placer County are held by Rex Hime. It appears that many in local government in Placer had an awakening regarding Mr. Kiley in time to take Mr. Hime’s calls.

It is the opinion of this blogger that Kevin Kiley’s ultimate goal is to run for congress, which is about as high as you can go as a Republican in California. Since it is clear to this blogger that Mr. Kiley has not been honest about his ultimate agenda and has demonstrated a calculated personal pattern, I can not trust him in office.

Doug LaMalfa recently saw my wife at an Acres of Hope event, where she is on the board. It appeared that he really did not want to talk to her, so she kept her distance. At least Doug LaMalfa is consistent in his behavior and is a solid conservative vote. Were Kiley to run against LaMalfa for Congress post 2022 redistricting, I’d be choosing between LaMalfa and no endorsement. (BTW, Congressman Doug, my wife actually likes you and thought your presentation to Acres of Hope was awesome…) I’ve known Doug LaMalfa since 2000, I married my wife in 2006 and have never told her what to think of anyone in office. (She likes Beth Gaines too!)

Speaking of history, I am going to re-assemble a history on Kevin Kiley and add to it with the last few years to paint the full picture. I can tell you with certainty that the 58 year old Hime is running to serve locally. I can tell you with certainty that the 50-something Brian Dahle is running to serve locally as he is trying to protect a way of life in the North State. I can tell you with Certainty based on the pattern I have assembled, serving anything other than the 33 year old Kevin is not part of Mr. Kiley’s calculus… As your intrepid blogger develops the history of Kevin Kiley, you too will understand how I came to the conclusions I did. To be continued.

Jan 132017
 

Your intrepid blogger gets a lot of email forwards and anonymous letters.

One such letter found its’ way to my insurance office. It is so full of typos and grammatical errors, I am wondering if they were done deliberately to ensure that I’d not be able to identify the author(s).

Apparently, Mr. Kiley went on to a local TV station and was asked a variety of questions including the world famous left wing dog whistle questions about illegal aliens, sanctuary cities and the like.

Kevin Kiley is intelligent, and quite articulate. It appears that his answers were either a skillful dodge of the question or so nuanced that less educated people (Kiley is Ivy League) were unable to clearly understand what he said. I know Kiley and his platform of law and order were effective enough to propel him to the top of an 11 person primary race. It does not make sense that he’d support illegal immigration.

The letter was sent to me in hopes that I would post it (which I did), but that I’d also take up arms against Kiley for being a RINO. I do believe that Mr. Kiley deserves time in office to get his feet under him before anyone should pass judgement about weather he is a Republican, RINO, Liberal, Commie, Squish, etc.

A group calling itself “Trump Allies of California” claimed responsibility for the letter. The letter finishes with an ominous warning, “We are not surrender”.

In addition, Mr. Kiley recently waded in to the Placer GOP Cent Com leadership drama. I have been treated to a series of neurotic rants by Ken Campbell reminding everyone what a great job he did as Chairman and how no one since has come close. (This, ironically would include his ally in arms Thomas N Hudson)

Mr. Campbell conveniently neglects that in 2004 the Placer GOP (and other Cent Coms) received a lot of money from the RNC/Bush 2004 campaign for GOTV, something that has not happened since. Whoops. This, not anything the neurotic former Placer GOP Chairman did, was the main factor for the high activity level in 2004.

I also thought it was ironic that the photos Campbell have sent out include my family members in them as despite Mr. Campbell’s visceral hatred of my entire family, we did our part – that he now claims credit for and invokes to help get a flawed, dishonest candidate for Placer GOP Chair elected. This sort of dishonest behavior has characterized Ken Campbell for the 15 years I have known him. The Ken Campbell that donates time and money to local charities is the one I don’t know very well at all.

Mr. Kiley would have no way of knowing the history. When Kevin decided to endorse Dennis Revell, he did a “soft endorsement” including complementary words about Revell’s opponent in his email. The issue here is similar to the parsed words on the TV Station interview, unless you are crystal clear – people will slice and dice and hear what they want to.

Kevin Kiley is going to get attacked by Ken Campbell and those supporting the opponent to Dennis Revell because he did not side with them. It is black and white, no middle ground in their minds. This is why I refer to them as ideological narcissists, they believe they are right and nothing else matters, including the tactics used to win the war. They may not start in on him for a while, just to try to make a liar out of your intrepid blogger, but eventually they will no longer be able to restrain the deep burning inside of them.

The consequence of unclear, or parsed communication is one lesson most new to public office have to learn the hard way. Given that Kiley is becoming a defacto spokesman for the small GOP Caucus all over the state, (He was on LA’s top rated KFI radio yesterday blasting the hire of Eric Holder) I am hoping that his learning curve on this is short…

… because the “Trump Allies of California” have Mr. Kiley on their list as well as the torch-wielding Campbell crew.

I don’t share any of their concern about Mr. Kiley, yet. I for one am hopeful that Mr. Kiley will be effective and will achieve his potential as a member of the Assembly.

However, “they” will believe what they want as I can already smell the burning wicks and “they” will be one hell of a nightmare for Mr. Kiley and anyone else that does not better manage their communication.

Personal note for comparison – I don’t mince words, so at least the people that want to do mean things to me have a real excuse for not liking me.

Jul 082016
 

Total Placer County Turnout 54%. 115,266. The numbers don’t lie:

Total Republican Votes for President: 54181 or 47% – down a fraction of a point below 47.4% Registration

Total Democrat Votes for President: 47203 or 41% – up a whopping 14% over 27% Dem Registration

Total 3rd Party Votes for President: 2379 or 2%

Total DTS Ballot (You can take a non-partisan ballot and I saw a ton) / Undervoted Ballots for President (11,503): 10%

In Placer County – the Democrats OUTPERFORMED the statewide average of an 8 point boost by a whopping 6%. Add in that the Rep vote missed the mark and you have a nearly 15 point swing. As in 2012, nearly $100k was spent on altering the outcome of the GOP Cent Com election – based on the results I have seen of the elections I have no hope whatsoever that the Placer GOP will be able to emerge from a wet paper bag. (But – the rampage jihads against people they don’t like will continue) I won’t even ask where the Placer GOP was in this election (other than trying to unseat Kirk Uhler).

So – this makes Victor Bekhet’s 20-Point loss a massive drubbing as Out-of-the-Closet Pro-Growth Conservative Kirk Uhler decimated him despite the fact that 40% of the voters in Placer Sup D4 were dems and less than 50% of them were Republicans. OUCH.

Showing the magnitude of Uhler’s victory is the fact that Jennifer Montgomery, who is in the most Democrat Supervisor District in Placer County “Only” got 63.19% of the vote versus Uhler’s 59.81%. Perhaps Montgomery can indeed be worked with as asserted by Ken Campbell in his defense of supporting democrat turned DTS Bekhet. It would appear that a decent batch of the lefties in Placer SUP D5 may not have Monty on their dance card, suggesting she may indeed be pragmatic in some regards.

Michael Babich, who lost to Montgomery is a dyed in the wool Conservative who was recruited by the local Tea Party and aided by Team McClintock.

The local Tea Party also recruited jolly Bob Grigas to run against DTS Supervisor Jim Holmes and that margin was colossal. 75-25.

In other news – GOP Assembly Candidate Kevin Kiley won Placer County Outright. Given the massive Dem turnout surge, I’d have to believe that his “Deputy Attorney General” ballot title had to have attracted more than a few Kamala Harris supporters.

I have been receiving positive feedback that the youthful Kiley is reaching out to several prominent local electeds. This is a good thing as I’ve been told that he is meeting with the aforementioned pack of rabid dogs on Wednesday. He is sure to see why they are (as a group) ineffective (because not all of them are insane), and of course why your intrepid blogger is recommending a tetanus shot and a flak jacket for Mr. Kiley before said meeting.

Kiley has met with a few respected and popular local electeds. By accounts, it appears that he is soliciting advice and is acting on some of it. The mere fact that he is meeting with people is a stunning departure from the feckless, incompetent Beth Gaines. The fact that he is interacting and asking questions suggests that my opinion that he is talented and intelligent may have some merit.

I want Kiley to succeed. I sincerely hope he continues to meet with good, sane people. I sincerely hope he not only solicits their advice, but that he will also act on it. This alone would have a major, stabilizing effect on the whole area that has suffered from a Republican leadership Vacuum (with a few notable exceptions) – that crescendoed with the massive 15% swing in voter turnout in the primary just concluded.

If Mr. Kiley takes and acts on good advice, he will maximize his talent. If that happens, he will end up being a far better representative than the rabid dogs deserve.

The fun is just beginning, I’ve talked to a few perspective candidates and it looks like at least two major local governing bodies are going to have sufficient Republican candidates. More on those races soon.

Jun 122016
 

I worked for Bill Halldin, we had a simple strategy…

We knew that since Bill had gobbled up a ton of endorsements in Placer County that our opponents would go elsewhere and fight it out. We also know that “Mik” would be strong in El Dorado as he was a supervisor there. We bet the ranch on Placer.

How strong Mik ended up being in Eldo and Sac County surprised everyone. “Mik” was indeed a damn good leader.

I believe that Bill’s problems were three-fold, none we had any control over.

  1. Andy Pugno getting in to the race overshadowed us in the same target voter universe. His entry took at least 4 points in the aggregate away, maybe as many as 6.
  2. Bill Halldin looks like a Republican Politician. This was still the Donald Trump election and we were unable to stand out the way Pugno and Kiley did. Bill Halldin did the best he could and I do believe that we got our message out. It was not received by the ADHD voter universe.
  3. Placer County did not vote. That was a killer.

As of 6/12/2016:
Placer’s Turnout was a low 33.8%
Sacramento County was an astonishing 64.5%
El Dorado’s Turnout was an average 46.5%

Halldin needed Placer to come through huge. It did not.

Kevin Kiley is a young talented man. I wrote that before and I am writing it again. He was and is a superior communicator to any of the other candidates that ran. I’d also argue that he is more charismatic than any of the other candidates that ran. When you had 11 candidates on the ballot all trying to be unique, Kiley was. Pugno sorta was.

The above was the key to Kiley’s campaign. Period. Not Pete Wilson, Not the Bay Area Donors. It was Kevin. Let that sink in. (This is also why his Cable TV ads were effective – it was Kevin, not the content of the ads)

I hammered Kevin Kiley furiously for a month – he only barked once. This was incredible discipline, which suggests he could have a shorter learning curve as an Assemblymember than you’d expect.

Kevin will be very young for a legislator, he is 31. He is also smarter than most people I have ever met. It is clear when he talks to people one on one that he has talent to burn.

On the ground, Kiley targeted both Sun Cities heavily and worked them heavily. If you look at the precinct-by-precinct vote totals you will see that Sun City Lincoln will be his margin of victory in the AD06 race. Kiley deserves credit for that effort.

It did not matter that we (team Halldin) killed him on the ground in the rest of the county of Placer. They did not vote. I’d bet that the turnout would have been 20% without the Sun Cities! (In fact Rocklin, won by Halldin was indeed about 21% turnout as of 6/12/2016)

It is clear that the hit pieces launched in the mail hurt Kiley as his vote total slid as the night went on. However, he had built himself quite a lead through his efforts.

For as much as I woofed on Dave Gilliard, if I was in his shoes, I’d have done about the same thing strategy-wise in Kiley’s campaign. The fallout from that strategy, however will either define or refine Kevin Kiley’s early tenure as an Assembly-Member. That was the jam Kiley was put in to because of the shallowness of his endorsement support.

When 11 people are on the ballot, it creates a completely volatile situation. With Trump sealing the nomination, it upset the electorate. This was an election where many of the usual conventions of campaigning were tossed aside.

The rest of the votes will be counted by Friday, I’ve been told. I am expecting that Kiley will hold on by 1000-1200 votes (which will still be a large margin in an 11 person race) and that Halldin may pass Cristi Nelson for 5th.

Jun 062016
 

imagesPlacer GOP Chairman Dennis Revell stood up. He basically called Dave Gillard and Kevin Kiley out for violating the California GOP trademark The soundbyte from Dave Gilliard was priceless as well. Well done, Dennis Revell, thank you for standing up for the integrity of the GOP.

The KFBK Story is linked here for now

. Soon the story should be on their website.

Where was Kevin Kiley with his glibb lawyer comebacks? Why did Gilliard have to respond?

The story also took on Gilliard and Kiley for their claims that Republican Party leaders are uniting behind Mr. Kiley. It is the only card they can play at this point, I get that – but it is still a lie.

KFBK’s story covered both the deceptive use of the Republican Elephant and the messaging of Kiley’s mailers and Walk Pieces. The story concluded by reminding listeners that Kiley has not been endorsed by the GOP at any level… ‘

… which is another theme. Pete Wilson’s lawyer’s son works for Kiley, the California Republican Taxraisers Association is purchased and the Small Business Association also endorsed three other candidates. The GOP endorsement appears to not be available on amazon.com, or done in triplicate – therefore Mr. Kiley was unable to obtain a copy.

Dave Gilliard is an outstanding and effective Republican Consultant. This is not one of his finer moments. Young Mr. Kiley is not acting quite as confident these days.

EL DORADO COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY CHAIRMAN WARNS VOTERS

OF MISLEADING MAILINGS BY ASSEMBLY CANDIDATE

IMG_0693EL DORADO HILLS – El Dorado County Republican Party Chairman Dallas Sweeney today urged voters to disregard misleading campaign literature that implies that the Republican Party has endorsed a candidate in the State Assembly District 6 race.

 “The Republican Party has not endorsed any Republican candidate in this race,” Sweeney said. “None of the three county party committees that cover Assembly District 6 have made any endorsement or is urging voters to cast their ballots for any candidate. The state party has made no endorsement.”

 Mr. Sweeney’s comment comes after an Assembly candidate published mailers and handouts that use a Republican elephant logo and claim that ‘Republican Party leaders have endorsed’ one candidate and urged voters to cast their ballots for him.

 “These statements are misleading and the use of the Republican Party logo is an effort to confuse and mislead voters,” Mr. Sweeney said. “It’s regrettable that any candidate would mislead voters with these kinds of representations.”

 Assembly District 6 includes parts of Placer, Sacramento and El Dorado counties. There are eight Republican candidates competing in Tuesday’s election.