Dec 092019
 

With the sudden filing of Janet Nguyen vs Tyler Diep in AD-72 – the Democrats believe an already competitive race may be an easier pickup. Diep is vulnerable and his personal conduct before and since being elected is the subject of legend and may end up on the pages of Right on Daily (and maybe local media outlets). Don’t forget that this is overlaid by the CA-48 race (Michelle Park Steel) that will draw a likely $10 Million.

Tyler Diep

In AD-74, a democrat is holding an R-leaning seat and there is a massive schism in the OCGOP that deadlocked an endorsement. While Kelly Empty has limited resources, a handful of people still trying to wield influence are attempting to push the volatile Ernby over the line in to the March runoff. This increases the level of difficulty for the GOP significantly let alone for Diane Dixon who has at least triple the resources of Mrs. Ernby but will be forced to expend them all to deal with the stubborn challenge.

Kelly Ernby.

AD-68: Stephen Choi is considered extremely vulnerable and he hurt himself by attempting to defend his colleague William “Bill” Brough. Brough’s spiraling scandal is affecting the entire area. Choi’s troubles are compounded by the vulnerable John Moorlach SD-37 and the Congressional Race where Katie Porter could have $10Million come in on her behalf. Choi’s opponent was fundraising off of his AD-73 related gaffe.

AD-55: Phillip Chen is also considered vulnerable now. AD-55 is overlaid by the Ling-Ling-Ling Chang Senate Seat (SD-29) and millions coming to avenge the recall of Josh Newman. Ling-Ling-Ling is viewed as the next most likely to bolt the GOP as she is as liberal as Mayes or Maienschein are. The CA-39 Race (Young Kim) is also overlaid on this and will be drawing massive outside money as well.

Which brings us to AD-73. There is zero incentive for the legislative democrats to play this straight. With Bill Brough being on a rampage to prove himself innocent (and everyone else around him wrong), the democrats want him to make the fall runoff. If Brough makes the AD-73 runoff against a democrat the FPPC investigation and the sexual misconduct investigation are all but guaranteed to drop. If they were baseless, they would be coming out whenever and no one would be talking about them in the halls of the legislature.

The refuseniks on the OCGOP who refuse to endorse anyone for any reason and any time before filing can thank themselves for enabling Brough to feel comfortable filing for re-election. Other groups and other people took action before the primary – but the OCGOP whose voice was the loudest waited until the day after filing to finally stand against Brough. I had criticized Fred Whitaker until around mid September as it was clear then that he had arrived at the conclusion that Brough’s victims were legitimate and that Brough was a problem. Unfortunately, Whitaker is not a strong or persuasive person and had to wait until filing closed to get Brough dealt with.

The democrats did not miss this dynamic. While the Orange County Republican world is (finally) aligned against Brough – the democrats know the weakness and knew that Republican “leadership” as in Marie Waldron protecting a leadership vote, were running interference for Brough. (All while knowing at least 3 weeks in advance Mayes was going to bolt parties) The significance of Chad Mayes leaving the GOP is that he was a leadership vote for Waldron, so all this sandbagging to protect Brough was for naught.

Think it through – it took 6 months of relentless pounding by the Right on Daily Blog AND dozens of other state level media articles to finally get the movement that has only happened in the last three weeks! (Regarding AD-73) It is as if some were hoping against hope they’d never be forced to act!

From Ben Adler Capitol Public Radio and Stephen Frank:

The California Legislature spent nearly $2 million last year investigating sexual harassment accusations involving lawmakers, staffers and lobbyists, and received 15 new allegations — including four against state senators and two separate complaints against an Assembly member.

This newly released data, obtained by CapRadio as part of a Legislative Open Records Act request, is from 2018 and the first month of 2019. The response includes no names, which is consistent with the same data released in the past.

But CapRadio’s request for data on all allegations made since January has so far been denied.

That means these newly released details about sexual harassment at the state Capitol will be the last ones the public ever sees — unless the Legislature chooses to disclose information from its newly formed, joint Senate-Assembly Workplace Conduct Unit.

Read the article carefully and cross-reference it with what I have been told from several political insiders: The Bill Brough investigation will be completed sometime around mid December (now) and sent to the joint committee. What they do with the information and investigation is up to the leadership (as in the dem majority) of the Assembly. I’ve been told that Anthony Rendon and the other Democrat leaders fancying a complete wipe-out of Republicans in Orange County will be forestalling the release of the report.

The failure of GOP Groups to act decisively earlier and take out the trash could bite us yet again. We’ve seen Bill Brough’s issues spill over in to AD-68. With the air of scandal barely below the surface in AD-72, you have to wonder if your intrepid blogger has connected the dots correctly between the rumored delay of the Brough Report and the refusal of the legislature to release records to the Capitol Public Radio crew whose lawsuit victory allowed us to see the #MeToo stuff that we actually did see.

I am thrilled that the OCGOP endorsed an opponent, Laurie Davies against Bill Brough. I am also thrilled that the OC Lincoln Club did as well a couple days before filing closed. I am waiting on the OC New Majority to do the deed as well in public. I now hope this effort is enough to overcome name ID and incumbency – especially with Ed Sachs deciding to file in what looks like a Brough-level temper tantrum when the OC Lincoln Club picked Davies over him. Ed Sachs has increased the level of difficulty exponentially to get Brough out of the top two.

Bill Brough will affect every single race in Orange County: SD-29, SD-37, AD-55, AD-68, AD-72, AD-73 and AD-74. The 4 Congressional Races were being doubly impacted until Duncan Hunter Jr. pled guilty and bailed out. (The four are CA-38, CA-45, CA-48 and CA-49)

Remember one of your intrepid blogger’s old adages – NEVER EVER RELY ON A JUDGE OR AN INVESTIGATION TO DO WHAT YOU COULD NOT DO AT THE BALLOT BOX. This means to everyone reading this from Orange County – make sure you join your intrepid blogger and make sure Bill Brough gets buried. Please.

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