May 312019
 

Right on the heels of our expose over the maladies of Kevin Kiley’s Campaign Consultant Dave Gilliard, POOF.

Right On Daily mysteriously was “Suspended” for 6 hours. Did Kiley’s crew run a complaint drill against us? The Special Election is on Tuesday, choose wisely.

May 302019
 

I wrote previously that Dave Gilliard is a talented consultant that has some predicable patterns. He is managing Kevin Kiley’s doomed race for State Senate. Please note, I have helped Mr. Gilliard directly and indirectly in past campaigns so I know of which I speak. Sheriff Chad Bianco of Riverside County is a Gilliard Client for example.

I have seen several actions over the years by Mr. Gilliard that give me pause.

I watched in 2012 when Peter Tateishi was running against Barbara Ortega in the AD08 Primary when Gilliard sent mailers attacking Tateishi that were black and white making Tateishi out to look like Emporer Hirohito.

Later in Doug LaMalfa’s first Congressional Campaign, his now chief of staff Mark Spannagel was caught violating campaign finance law creating a website to attack the late Sam Aanestad. Dave Gilliard’s name was all over the machinations. (see a second article about it here)

In a subsequent election, Dave Gilliard was involved in a primary challenge campaign against a then Assemblymember Dan Logue – in order to bleed money out of Logue for an anticipated Logue Vs Nielsen State Senate race (sound familiar?). The Tehama GOP (firmly in the grasp of  people in the influence of Gilliard) got burned for campaign finance violations similar to the California Republican Leadership Fund. (A second article can be found here.) Jim Nielsen was fined $23,000 as a result of this caper. Dave Gilliard is also his consultant.

When I say patterns, I have observed that Dave Gilliard when running a campaign has to be first out of the gate with a piece of mail. Sometimes, he will send that mailer 6 weeks before absentee ballots drop. Another predictable pattern is that when he knows his candidate is losing, he scorches the earth – almost as if to say If I can’t have it I am going to wreck it all on my way out the door.

Kevin Kiley admits to being a net $128k in the hole as of his latest report. $191k in debt – 63K in cash on hand = -128K. This means that Mr. Gilliard is in “on tilt” mode.

Having seen Gilliard’s clients get conveniently timed independent expenditures from organizations such as the Nomlaki Band of Pashkenta Indians, I know 100% Gilliard lives in grey areas. (Patterns again folks) I also know from insider conversations that Kevin Kiley tried every which way to try and attract independent expenditures on his behalf, as did Gilliard. How this does not violate coordination laws is beyond me, but it happened. Kiley is reputed to have yelled at and aggressively berated more than one insider that did not kiss his ring.

The set up is all there for Dave Gilliard to pull an 11th hour trick.

My gut tells me Dahle is leading Kiley but a lot of voters are up for grabs. It is clear that Mr. Gilliard knows more than I do with this regard.

I do not think Gilliard was anticipating the local media coverage of this trick. Until proven otherwise, and based on my years of watching patterns I am assuming the Northern California State Voter Project letter was done at the behest of Dave Gilliard. BTW – Gilliard has had his office raided by state authorities before – in the Bill Postmus scandal years ago.

Just four years ago, Gilliard sent mailers out on behalf of his client Senator Jeff Stone against Bonnie Garcia that looked both racist and sexist. Again, this mailer was done in the waning weeks of the campaign.

As of the writing of this blog – the mailer referenced by Fox 40 (see here), the local ABCBS affiliate (see here) and the NBCBS affiliate (see here) have featured people in Fair Oaks, El Dorado Hills and Rocklin (all are in AD06, Kiley’s district). As of the writing of this blog, not one person from OUTSIDE the AD-06 portion of Senate District one has received the mailer.

As of the writing of this blog – vote turnout in Assembly District 6 is trailing every other part of the district as a percentage. This means then that this mailer was designed to push Republicans to the polls in Assembly District 6 where Kiley has a decided advantage.

Given the history of late-in-race scorched-earth tactics I have seen, this is consistent with Dave Gilliard’s pattern, Given Kiley’s pattern of being willing to say or do anything to “win”, it is also possible this mailer was done with his full knowledge as well.

I am not sure if the news coverage will make it more or less effective. I am also not sure how much impact this has on the race. I will likely file an FPPC Complaint about it if some of these other people have not. I think Dave Gilliard has some explaining to do beyond a simple denial.

Kevin Kiley? He is admitting to being $128,000 net in the hole. It is likely that he is more than double that in debt as it is common to hide campaign debt in a variety of ways. (The most common is vendors providing services and dragging their heels on sending invoices for said services) Remember, Beth Gaines, another Dave Gilliard client in the past had a reputed $100,000 in “off the books” campaign debt for years. (This sort of behavior is not unique to Gilliard’s crew)

How does Kiley get re-elected in 2020 to AD-06? He is going to be extremely vulnerable, and is going to have far fewer friends to call on as well.

May 292019
 

About a month ago, I wrote a sobering expose’ on the electoral prospects of the CAGOP. It is the opinion of this blogger that barring a miracle, that at least 5 legislative seats are gone in 2020. It is likely we hold all 7 Congressional seats even as Duncan Hunter (CA-50) is arrogantly and stubbornly holding on.

Even as the pending election looms large, the insiders within the CAGOP (who I refer to as the Oligarchy of Controlled Failure) were dividing up the shrinking pie. That is until David Carney came on to the scene. While familiar names are doing familiar things, it has been put to me by three capitol insiders that Carney has to sign off on a consultant getting a “target” race. The old practice of 2 or 3 leading GOP firms getting all of the targeted races seems to have been cracked.

However, the age old practice of muscling candidates out of races is still alive and well. Click here to see County Supervisor Bob Elliott say on camera that Senate Minority Leader Shannon Grove forced him out of the SD05 race in favor of Jesus Andrade. Elliott has instead rolled over to CA-10, joining a crowded field.

Carney’s injection in to the dynamic explains why a smaller national firm called Targeted Victory featuring a former California Chief of Staff (Sam Oh) is repping several also-ran candidates in Orange County Congressional Seats. If this was 2018, those races would have been controlled by member firms of the oligarchy. BTW – most of the Consultants I know are good people, they have just been losing a lot lately. I suppose I’d not care so much about the shrinking oligarchy of controlled failure if they won elections.

David Carney’s firm is being paid a staggering $25,000 a month. (Something like $12,500 from each caucus) Both the GOP Assembly and GOP Senate Caucus are bankrupt. I am not sure who or where they are getting the money from. The CAGOP fundraising thus far is also a fraction of what it was under previous CAGOP Chair Jim Brulte.

However, unlike Jim Brulte, Jessica Patterson has been aggressively and publicly criticizing the majority party and in particular the sitting governor. This is a sea change we all knew was coming, how much of this is driven by Carney?

What I can not confirm at this time is how Carney got in to the good graces of the Senate / Assembly leadership to fetch his massive retainer. I had assumed, based on previous data that Trump’s crew had something to do with it. I still believe that to be partly true.

Several of the insiders I communicated with attempted to contest the notion that Trump is not the biggest problem for CAGOP Candidates. It is clear that the bias runs deep, even as several of these people were confirming key details of my previous post.

I also look at the sudden disinterest in having a fight over the Platform of the CAGOP. This is no accident and is a lot less simple than the insiders stepping away from a fight because of a fear it validates several conservative critics on the outside looking in. Some of the players in this fight have had a life dream of shredding the platform, they don’t simply stand down from a fight without some power being brought to bear. This is part of my basis for believing team trump had something to do with this.

David Carney, as I wrote previously is a deeply connected player from New Hampshire, who also has had extensive experience in Texas. Carney is alleged to advertise himself as a grassroots expert and has programs for Church Outreach for example. It has also been put to your intrepid blogger that Carney is having problems finding help from the insiders with the Grassroots plan. Again, this buttresses my criticism of the consultants eschewing grassroots and the systematic demolition of grassroots by the same consultants.

Carney has not, as of the posting of this blog, talked to all of the Republican Members of the legislature. This is key. I had written that discipline within the caucuses is shattered and it is every man for himself.

Think it through. The guy getting paid $25K a month by the legislative caucuses has not even talked to all the members yet! I am wondering how the current leadership expect to be able to pay the bills with this sort of participation.

Remember, Stephen Choi and Kevin Kiley both sat on over $400,000 in 2018 while their colleagues were getting slaughtered at the ballot box. People like Chad Mayes and Jordan Cunningham are frequently voting with the democrats on a variety of bad bills including tax increases. Josh Newman was recalled in favor of Ling Ling Ling Chang who is about is liberal as Catherine Baker is (see also a slew of bad votes), Ling Ling is on my most likely to lose list. Oh, and there are a few term-outs too.

But if you listen to insiders, its’ all Trump’s fault. Straw men are easier to beat on, don’t you know… David Carney could be channeling Jesus himself and he is going to get the same (or worse) result than the staffers that were terminated to make way to pay has ghastly retainer.

Somehow, Carney has to get this remaining group of people to take ownership of their failure and then to believe they can win again. He is going to need a PHD in Narcissism remediation and some assistance for his known short temper and stiff, gruff communication style. It is tough stuff dealing with a generation used to losing who can’t see their part in it.

P.S. At the same time Carney was hired, Nithin Matthew was also hired. One senior legislative staffer indicated the hire of the young man by the Caucus was shrouded in mystery. Nithin is a squish, but he is a good kid. I hope he succeeds at whatever mystery job he is doing. I also hope the shroud of mystery gets lifted as well…

To be continued…

May 272019
 

During the CAGOP Chairman’s Race, I wrote extensively about the Oligarchy of Controlled Failure. They are a group of operatives and consultants that have been wielding the levers of fading power in the California Republican Party.

Several things are going on right now – the platform fight, the fight amongst consultants for the shrinking pie of election races, leadership drama within the shrinking GOP Caucuses and of course welcoming David Carney to California.

According to your intrepid blogger’s research, David Carney worked for George H W Bush and later Governor John Sununu of New Hampshire. Carney is a heavyweight in National Republican Politics. He is also from New Hampshire. Some think he is a tool of the Bush dynasty, smart people realize that he is a hard core Donald Trump supporter and believer.

According to whistleblowers and confidential informants – there are several reasons for Carney’s sudden emergence in the California GOP Scene.

  1. President Trump is well aware that a lot of so-called Republican Insiders are blaming him for the 2018 election results and have had group-think as it relates to trying to publicly distancing themselves from him in campaigns and Party Communications
  2. President Trump does not want to lose California by 4 Million Votes Again.
  3. The National people had told the 7 remaining members of Congress they were on their own. It appears that part of Carney’s Job is to help defend the remaining 7 members from the siege that awaits them
  4. Discipline within both shrinking caucuses of the CAGOP is gone and it is basically everyone for themselves. Teamwork is basically gone. Somehow, Carney has to figure out how to get the term limit babies to be team players again. Recently, Chad Mayes and Jordan Cunningham – rumored to have been mulling bolting the GOP voted multiple times for Tax Increases. Both are public opponents of President Trump.
  5. National is aware that most of the Volunteer Groups in the CAGOP and the Central Committees have been overrun with consultants and paid staff. They are going to have to create their own structure out of the decimated shards left behind by a generation of people seeking control at the expense of effectiveness.
  6. The Oligarchy of Controlled Failure is being put on notice by the national people that they are aware of who the players are and what the failures are. This is why we are seeing new, out of state consultants (albeit, not top national firms) showing up on press-releases for also-ran candidates in several Southern California Congressional Races. Second and Third Tier candidates are finding themselves on the prospect list for every remaining consulting firm in California…
  7. As the Oligarchy of Controlled Failure was dividing up the pie, telling Republican Candidates for Office to hire XXX to run your campaign (or the Caucus / Third House won’t support you), the National people got wind of this as well.
  8. The Oligarchy of Controlled Failure was poised to gut and amend the CAGOP Platform in accordance with their long held bias against socially conservative values.

Based on conversations with confidential informants with national ties, David Carney has been sent in to California to clean house. The National political team for President Trump realized that the people he had on payroll in 2016 were incompetent (see also Tim Clark) and did not perform. Team Trump is aware and upset by the fact that people like Chad Mayes, Kristen Olsen and others have successfully sold insiders on the notion that Trump is the biggest problem the CAGOP has. Team Trump is also aware and upset by the mega bucks spent by these same people on creating a false narrative about shredding the CAGOP Platform.

Carney is supposed to make sure people that have failed are fired. He is supposed to make sure that Consultants stop getting rewarded for Failure. The platform fight very well could end with a whimper as the National people are not going to tolerate fratricide that was being set up by several political insiders. Carney also has a near impossible task of trying to attain cohesion within the ranks of Republican electeds in California.

According to other confidential informants – most of the major Consulting Firms in California are not happy and are rather nervous about what Mr. Carney has in store for California in 2020. Kevin McCarthy is reputed to be livid at this development as his reign as king of the CAGOP turned out to be short-lived with the insertion of Team Trump in to the equation.

One of the ongoing issues with the Oligarchy of Controlled Failure has been the California Republican Leadership Fund. Bottom line – it uses a string of Central Committees as a sidestep for the normal procedures for funding races. Apparently, more the one of the committees tasked with receiving and distributing money did not have any votes of its’ membership to authorize said actions. Similar to the large fines handed out several years ago for similar actions, it appears that once again the FPPC has been alerted to a variety of issues, commingling, earmarking, among others. The CRLF is how they attempted to exert control over who the preferred candidates for office were + enforcing discipline and making sure that the right consultants got the preferred contracts.

Look at the list of people involved in the CRLF – it is a who’s who of the oligarchy of controlled failure.

Using CA-10 as an example – Charles Dossett who I lit up multiple times as the preferred candidate re-registered Republican right before getting appointed as a CAGOP Delegate. Dossett made the rounds but failed to convince people he had what it took. He is gone. At the same time, a supervisor in the area named Bob Elliott was running for Senate District 5. Elliott got muscled out in favor of Jesus Andrade, because that is who “leadership” wanted in the race. There was no accounting for Elliott’s superior resume or ability to fund-raise. Elliott now finds himself in a crowded field for CA-10. Marla Livengood, (whose consultant is the same as Mr. Andrade’s) appears to be the choice of the Oligarchy as well despite evidence suggesting otherwise. I do not have a horse in SD05 nor CA-10 but have been watching the machinations with interest as the insider activity is following the same patterns I have seen for years. Mr. Carney has to be aware of this and similar activity by the old guard of the CAGOP Oligarchy in other parts of the state.

I don’t envy David Carney’s job. He has to deal with people like Chad Mayes and Kristen Olsen who are on a suicide mission to prove themselves right. He has to deal with consultants jockeying for paychecks scorching the earth in their wake. He has to deal with a shattered party infrastructure – because that is how the consultants wanted it. He has to terminate people. He has to tell people no. He is going to have to create and execute a plan with several people resisting him, rooting for him to fail.

Given what I have learned about David Carney and how people are reacting to him, I am going to sit here and roast some political marshmallows while cheering him on to success. The rest of you who supported Travis Allen or Steve Frank, who wanted to serve on a county central committee, wanted to be a CAGOP Delegate, or wanted to participate in a grassroots club but were told no thanks should also be cheering Carney on as he crushes the grip of the Oligarchy of Controlled Failure. The people that ran good people they could not control out of the CAGOP, are themselves in the cross-hairs of accountability.

Oh and the Platform? The insiders have changed their tune in the last month… now they are all talking about keeping it the same. Yup. David Carney. Donald Trump. Burn it down guys, it needs it badly.

May 272019
 

I’ve written about Kevin Kiley for several months now and why I believe he is not trustworthy nor qualified to be in any office, let alone the Assembly or State Senate. I have come to believe that Kiley will say and do anything he thinks he needs to in order to get what he wants politically.

These include text message and email attacks attacking several of his colleagues including Conservative Stalwart James Gallagher for signing a letter supporting Rural Healthcare. While Dahle, Gallagher and several democrats with rural farming districts signed a letter in support of rural healthcare services – Kiley blasted them all for doing it. Why? because said services may be performed for illegal alien farm laborers.

Kiley’s campaign is broke. His Mailers are going to very small universes, his radio and TV ads are sparse and he has been forced to return to the coven of Obama Donors he relied upon for nearly $500,000 in IE money and campaign donations in his original election to AD06 in 2016. Kiley admitted to being $100,000 in the hole after the primary was over. Instead of paying vendors, he placed more media buys and is likely in debt 2-3 times what we have seen.

He has been forced to make his latest batch of attacks via press releases, emails and text messages. He and his campaign consultant are doing a lot of whining these days – an indicator of a campaign that is not confident in their prospects at all. Dave Gilliard is a talented consultant and very competent, but he has a long set pattern when he knows a race is tied or his candidate is trailing. He (Gilliard) tends to scorch the earth as if to say if I can’t have it no one can, almost like a Kamikaze. When you add in Kevin Kiley’s own character flaws amplifying this effect, it explains why the number of political insiders talking negatively about Mr Kiley has exploded in the last three weeks. (It is really hard to find someone that will defend Kiley)

On May 24, 2019 – Kiley voted YES on AB557. From the official analysis by the Assembly Staff – with emphasis on a paragraph from extreme left wing lesbian activist Susan Eggman the author:

Maternal mental health conditions have impacts far beyond the mothers that are experiencing them – they also influence the well-being of children, families, and communities. New parents already deal with incredible challenges adapting to the responsibility of an expanding family, but low-income women and women of racial/ethnic minorities, like many of the women in my community, are disproportionately affected by maternal mental health disorders, as they face unique barriers to diagnosis and treatment. Maternal mental health is of increasing concern because of the high prevalence of depression and anxiety during the perinatal period and the resulting long-term implications of delayed, inconsistent, or absent treatment. Extending the duration of continuity of care for pregnant women with a maternal mental health condition who have had to switch health coverage plans, and extending full scope Medi-Cal benefits for undocumented pregnant women will ensure that they receive important pregnancy-related and post-partum health care, including mental health care.

Kevin Kiley just voted to fund healthcare services for illegal aliens in California having Anchor Babies. People in glass houses should not throw stones. Kiley has been weak on the immigration issue in the past, trying to avoid it like the plague – that is until he saw polling in 2019 showing Illegal Immigration being the number one issue among Republican Voters. Similar to his fraudulent Cattle Ranch, Kiley has attempted to deceive voters that he is solid on illegal immigration.

This is the same Kevin Kiley that has been lit up in the past for his refusal to take clear stands on a variety of issues:

Recently, at a town hall meeting in Rocklin, Kevin Kiley was asked a direct question about the extreme left-wing homosexual indoctrination curriculum that was adopted by the Rocklin Unified School District. Kiley did not answer the question, instead he filibustered. (Source, more than one person present at the meeting)

This is not surprising as Kiley has filibustered immigration questions in radio interviews in the past.

This is not surprising as Kiley attempted to dodge answering a question about the State of Jefferson, getting called on it by the talk show hosts. (and Kiley bailed out on the interview)

This is not surprising as Kiley refuses to give a straight answer about the Abortion Issue. (Source, several public appearances)

Well, Kiley did give a straight answer once. He admitted he does not own a gun.

A couple more recent examples of Mr. Kiley refusing to take stands were the Lincoln City Audit that just exploded in to the local rag. Apparently, the City of Lincoln has major issues and Mr. Kiley was remiss to stand up. I wrote about Stan Nader withdrawing his endorsement of Kiley as a result of his waffling. Secondly, while both Hime and Dahle took the wrong stand in the CAGOP Chairman’s race, they took a stand. Kevin Kiley did not endorse, yet his proxy ended up in the hands of Kevin Eastman, a staffer of the Jim Nielsen machine turned lobbyist. (This means he voted for Jessica Patterson as well – note, I was paid by Travis Allen and have since publicly pledged to honor the results of the CAGOP officer elections) I have more respect for Hime and Dahle making the wrong choice than Kiley, who tried to play both sides.

***

Mr. Kevin Kiley said in a Sacramento Bee Interview that the issues of Legalizing Weed, the Delta Tunnels and High Speed Rail are very unimportant to him. This suggests the influence of his Bay Area donors, where the Tunnels are a non issue, but legalizing Weed and HSR are popular. This is called trying to split the baby.

Once again Kevin Kiley is caught trying to play both sides against the middle. This time voting to fund healthcare for Mothers having anchor babies, while pointing a self-righteous finger at Brian Dahle and James Gallagher for trying to preserve rural healthcare funding that affects their districts in a major way. It seems eerily similar to demonizing the DMV Office in the capitol that members use to help their constituents.

The world is shrinking around Kevin Kiley and if I was him I’d start trying to figure out how to get re-elected to his Assembly position in 2020.

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