About a month ago, I wrote a sobering expose’ on the electoral prospects of the CAGOP. It is the opinion of this blogger that barring a miracle, that at least 5 legislative seats are gone in 2020. It is likely we hold all 7 Congressional seats even as Duncan Hunter (CA-50) is arrogantly and stubbornly holding on.
Even as the pending election looms large, the insiders within the CAGOP (who I refer to as the Oligarchy of Controlled Failure) were dividing up the shrinking pie. That is until David Carney came on to the scene. While familiar names are doing familiar things, it has been put to me by three capitol insiders that Carney has to sign off on a consultant getting a “target” race. The old practice of 2 or 3 leading GOP firms getting all of the targeted races seems to have been cracked.
However, the age old practice of muscling candidates out of races is still alive and well. Click here to see County Supervisor Bob Elliott say on camera that Senate Minority Leader Shannon Grove forced him out of the SD05 race in favor of Jesus Andrade. Elliott has instead rolled over to CA-10, joining a crowded field.
Carney’s injection in to the dynamic explains why a smaller national firm called Targeted Victory featuring a former California Chief of Staff (Sam Oh) is repping several also-ran candidates in Orange County Congressional Seats. If this was 2018, those races would have been controlled by member firms of the oligarchy. BTW – most of the Consultants I know are good people, they have just been losing a lot lately. I suppose I’d not care so much about the shrinking oligarchy of controlled failure if they won elections.
David Carney’s firm is being paid a staggering $25,000 a month. (Something like $12,500 from each caucus) Both the GOP Assembly and GOP Senate Caucus are bankrupt. I am not sure who or where they are getting the money from. The CAGOP fundraising thus far is also a fraction of what it was under previous CAGOP Chair Jim Brulte.
However, unlike Jim Brulte, Jessica Patterson has been aggressively and publicly criticizing the majority party and in particular the sitting governor. This is a sea change we all knew was coming, how much of this is driven by Carney?
What I can not confirm at this time is how Carney got in to the good graces of the Senate / Assembly leadership to fetch his massive retainer. I had assumed, based on previous data that Trump’s crew had something to do with it. I still believe that to be partly true.
Several of the insiders I communicated with attempted to contest the notion that Trump is not the biggest problem for CAGOP Candidates. It is clear that the bias runs deep, even as several of these people were confirming key details of my previous post.
I also look at the sudden disinterest in having a fight over the Platform of the CAGOP. This is no accident and is a lot less simple than the insiders stepping away from a fight because of a fear it validates several conservative critics on the outside looking in. Some of the players in this fight have had a life dream of shredding the platform, they don’t simply stand down from a fight without some power being brought to bear. This is part of my basis for believing team trump had something to do with this.
David Carney, as I wrote previously is a deeply connected player from New Hampshire, who also has had extensive experience in Texas. Carney is alleged to advertise himself as a grassroots expert and has programs for Church Outreach for example. It has also been put to your intrepid blogger that Carney is having problems finding help from the insiders with the Grassroots plan. Again, this buttresses my criticism of the consultants eschewing grassroots and the systematic demolition of grassroots by the same consultants.
Carney has not, as of the posting of this blog, talked to all of the Republican Members of the legislature. This is key. I had written that discipline within the caucuses is shattered and it is every man for himself.
Think it through. The guy getting paid $25K a month by the legislative caucuses has not even talked to all the members yet! I am wondering how the current leadership expect to be able to pay the bills with this sort of participation.
Remember, Stephen Choi and Kevin Kiley both sat on over $400,000 in 2018 while their colleagues were getting slaughtered at the ballot box. People like Chad Mayes and Jordan Cunningham are frequently voting with the democrats on a variety of bad bills including tax increases. Josh Newman was recalled in favor of Ling Ling Ling Chang who is about is liberal as Catherine Baker is (see also a slew of bad votes), Ling Ling is on my most likely to lose list. Oh, and there are a few term-outs too.
But if you listen to insiders, its’ all Trump’s fault. Straw men are easier to beat on, don’t you know… David Carney could be channeling Jesus himself and he is going to get the same (or worse) result than the staffers that were terminated to make way to pay has ghastly retainer.
Somehow, Carney has to get this remaining group of people to take ownership of their failure and then to believe they can win again. He is going to need a PHD in Narcissism remediation and some assistance for his known short temper and stiff, gruff communication style. It is tough stuff dealing with a generation used to losing who can’t see their part in it.
P.S. At the same time Carney was hired, Nithin Matthew was also hired. One senior legislative staffer indicated the hire of the young man by the Caucus was shrouded in mystery. Nithin is a squish, but he is a good kid. I hope he succeeds at whatever mystery job he is doing. I also hope the shroud of mystery gets lifted as well…
To be continued…