Mar 102019
 

(Note – at least in 2019 Mr. Kiley has a few local endorsements.) However, this is an historical note that should be considered as people evaluate Mr. Kiley’s current mailings. This is a re-post from 06/06/2016

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Placer GOP Chairman Dennis Revell stood up. He basically called Dave Gillard and Kevin Kiley out for violating the California GOP trademark The soundbyte from Dave Gilliard was priceless as well. Well done, Dennis Revell, thank you for standing up for the integrity of the GOP.

The KFBK Story is linked:

Where was Kevin Kiley? Why did Gilliard have to respond himself?

(Remember, this was in 2016) The story also took on Gilliard and Kiley for their claims that Republican Party leaders are uniting behind Mr. Kiley. It is the only card they can play at this point, I get that – but it is still a lie as the party apparatus was split between Hanley and Halldin.

KFBK’s story covered both the deceptive use of the Republican Elephant and the messaging of Kiley’s mailers and Walk Pieces. The story concluded by reminding listeners that Kiley has not been endorsed by the GOP at any level… ‘

… which is another theme. Pete Wilson’s lawyer’s son works for Kiley, the California Republican Taxraisers Association is purchased and the Small Business Association also endorsed three other candidates. The GOP endorsement appears to not be available on amazon.com, or done in triplicate – therefore Mr. Kiley was unable to obtain a copy.

Dave Gilliard is an outstanding and effective Republican Consultant. This was not one of his finer moments. Young Mr. Kiley is not acting quite as confident these days in 2019

EL DORADO COUNTY REPUBLICAN PARTY CHAIRMAN WARNS VOTERS

OF MISLEADING MAILINGS BY ASSEMBLY CANDIDATE

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EL DORADO HILLS – El Dorado County Republican Party Chairman Dallas Sweeney today urged voters to disregard misleading campaign literature that implies that the Republican Party has endorsed a candidate in the State Assembly District 6 race.

 “The Republican Party has not endorsed any Republican candidate in this race,” Sweeney said. “None of the three county party committees that cover Assembly District 6 have made any endorsement or is urging voters to cast their ballots for any candidate. The state party has made no endorsement.”

 Mr. Sweeney’s comment comes after an Assembly candidate published mailers and handouts that use a Republican elephant logo and claim that ‘Republican Party leaders have endorsed’ one candidate and urged voters to cast their ballots for him.

 “These statements are misleading and the use of the Republican Party logo is an effort to confuse and mislead voters,” Mr. Sweeney said. “It’s regrettable that any candidate would mislead voters with these kinds of representations.”

 Assembly District 6 includes parts of Placer, Sacramento and El Dorado counties. There are eight Republican candidates competing in Tuesday’s election.

Mar 072019
 

It was 2016. A man I knew and respected had stepped up to run for Assembly when the local electeds were all passing on the deal. Bill Halldin knew he’d have an uphill battle for the AD06 Race. It was a Melee. 11 People filed.

Mikulaco’s Signs were a classic. Note that they were recycled from his Supervisor Race from 4 years prior

Kiley had been running for AD06 for about 6 months before most of the other top-line candidates entered. Cristi Nelson was the first in the race, she put a substantial amount of her own money in. She also tried to make moves to clear the field. That appeared to have the opposite effect.

Cristi Beckstead Nelson was joined by Suzanne Jones. There were two democrats, Z’Berg and perennial candidate Brian Caples. There was a bonus speed bump running as an NPP known as “Bo”. Then the tropical depression joined the race. We were also graced with have a “Mik” and a smile. Not to be outdone, Andy Pugno, the author of Prop 8 joined the race on the very last day of filing.

One of my favorite all time memes

Kevin Kiley was the x-factor the entire time.

Beckstead-Nelson was trying to run as Cristi Nelson, knowing the hyphenated name would not play well. (She never fixed her voter registration) It was also clear she sanitized her internet presence as it was terribly difficult to find information on her. She ultimately did well at the ballot box, largely because she was the only female with resources.

Kevin Hanley, inexplicably spent $130,000 of his own money and made about every rookie mistake possible. He called himself the Hurricane, I called him a Tropical Depression.

Bill Halldin, while having the endorsements that mattered, could not overcome his lack of name ID and the connections to the establishment in a Donald Trump dominated election. He was also later in to the race than most of the other combatants.

Kevin Kiley supported John Kasich, but the electorate did not know that. He looked like the Donald Trump of the AD06 Race.

The Ted Cruz of the race was Andy Pugno. Luis Buhler, the puppetmaster of Billionaire donor Charles T Munger Jr. hates Andy Pugno for writing proposition 8. It has been my 20+ year experience with him that he detests social conservatives, especially leaders who make an impact. It turns out that Pugno was the most viable opponent to Kevin Kiley. Buhler would play a key role.

Kiley’s strategy was simple. Since he had a huge head start on the other candidates, he camped out in Sun City Lincoln and Sun City Roseville. Both of these communities because of their turnout represented a disproportionate share of the vote. Kiley said that he knocked on 8,000 doors. It is clear at least 2/3 of those were in the Sun Cities as he won them both by large margins.

Kiley spent a lot of time in El Dorado County. Todd White, the current Chair of the ELDO GOP was helped in to office by Kiley. Kiley finished a close second to Brian Caples in El Dorado County. Most of what few endorsements Kiley had were from El Dorado County.

He also walked strategically targeted partial precincts. Similar to what Scott Alvord did when running for Roseville City Council in the fall of 2016, Kiley would walk the main thoroughfares of a precinct and place as many signs as he could along the high traffic side streets. It created an appearance of stronger support than he had.

Note the very simple message and thin content in 2016. I’d expect 2019 to be no different

Even in 2019, Kiley has spent more time in Universities (Ivy League at that) than his entire work history. He was able to milk the Deputy District Attorney Title to distinguish himself from the field. He also had Pete Wilson by virtue of one of the relationships he had developed in San Francisco.

In 2016, Kiley’s Campaign did the exact same thing they are doing in 2019. They are trying to create the appearance that Kiley is the top Republican Choice, with words implying party-wide support that is not present. It is not a half-bad strategy to try and get votes.

Unfortunately for Kiley in 2019, Rex Hime has Pete Wilson in his corner as Hime actually worked for Wilson.

Kevin Kiley is weak on the Immigration Issue, running from it in public several times. Yet, he has pivoted off of the Law and Order Issue to Immigration. Since the Republican Party Leadership in California believes President Trump to be toxic, I am not expecting any candidate to light Kiley up for his allegiance to the trump-hating John Kasich. They Should.

In 2016, Kiley had something like $300,000 bundled for him by a plethora of wealthy donors from the Bay Area. Some have donated to him again in 2019. One of the Donors ran a late, furious $500,000 independent expenditure in 2016 to support Mr. Kiley. This certainly affected the outcome.

In 2016, the aforementioned Luis Buhler directed $250K in to Bill Halldin before halting that effort with 3 weeks to go. At the same time, they dropped nearly $1,000,000 in attacking Andy Pugno with media and 9(!) pieces of mail. Amazing things happen when you are a zealot and have a wealthy benefactor in the case of Luis Buhler. I’ve written extensively about Buhler’s meddling in Republican Races, including spending millions on County Party Races attacking Conservatives.

It literally was the intervention of the 1%ers with unreal amounts of money that propelled Kiley in to the Assembly.

In 2019, there is no Luis Buhler spending Charles Munger’s money to hunt conservatives. Munger cut off the money in 2018. He only ran a smaller amount of money on behalf of former Assemblymember Catherine Baker who lost in 2018.

In 2019, it appears Kiley’s friends in the Bay Area are not giving him as much as they did in 2016. This dynamic must have been anticipated, which is why Mr. Kiley hoarded his money and refused to help colleagues in the 2018 shellacking. Brian Dahle started from near zero versus the $400k Kiley hoarded and has now drawn the score even.

It is also interesting to see the dynamic among Kiley and Dahle’s colleagues. Most have not endorsed, appearing to reward Kiley’s strategy of self-serving versus team play. I take notice of these things, because they aggregate to tell the story of the endemic lack of leadership in the CAGOP at large. What incentive is there to lead and be a team player when no good deed goes unpunished?

The lack of moral clarity leads us to our next installment in the Tour-De-Kiley. Just what does he believe?

Mar 052019
 

Yes – those eeeeeevil Prison Guards are dropping $50K in to Brian Dahle. Man, you’d think Michael Bloomberg had donated or something. (A bunch of his buddies donated to Kiley in 2016 BTW)

However, in the process of whining about the Prison Guards AKA the CCPOA, there is this small detail Young Mr. Kiley may have forgotten:

Kiley for Assembly 2018 – look it up.

I’ll give Mr. Kiley the benefit of the doubt for forgetting. Otherwise, it could be a case of being jealous because Brian’s is bigger than his is.

Mar 052019
 

In the intervening two years since Kevin Kiley got elected to AD06, your intrepid blogger has learned more about Young Mr. Kiley. It is however, like a mystery novel as each question answered breeds three more.

Quite a biography Mr. Kiley had in 2016.

Take a close look at a hit piece Andy Pugno did against Kevin Kiley in 2016. Every last point on it is true. We will explain as we unpack the Kevin Kiley experience. Note that Luis Buhler (who I wrote about extensively in the just concluded CAGOP Officer Elections) directed $1 Million attacking Andy Pugno in 2016, as 9 pieces of mail went out attacking Pugno. Pugno barely missed the runoff against Kiley. The PAC that attacked Pugno was funded by a wealthy liberal billionaire that spent tens of millions electing liberal Republicans in Conservative Districts.

Kevin Kiley is a lawyer. He is also Ivy League Educated. He graduated from Granite Bay High School and kids from that School form the bulk of his campaign volunteers. Your intrepid blogger has met former classmates of Young Mr. Kiley’s who basically told me they were not surprised at all to see Mr. Kiley seek elective office. It appears that this was a life goal of his.

It appears that sometime after Mr. Kiley completed his Ivy League education, he landed in San Francisco. Several of my GOP friends from out in the Bay Area know Mr. Kiley. It also appears that he had or made some connections to wealthy donors in that area as well.

it appears that in 2015, within Two Months of gaining employment in the California Attorney General’s Office (think Kamala Harris) Mr. Kiley set his plan in motion to run for office. Mr. Kiley never prosecuted a case, but was a “Deputy District Attorney” long enough to use the title on the ballot just a year after quitting that job (which he held less than 6 months) to become a full-time candidate. Hence Pugno’s claim of long-term unemployed rang true at the time.

When Kiley ran for Assembly in 2016, he was 31, single never married and did not own a home. Worse, he had about 4 years of employment history.

Now Kiley is 33 or 34, is still single never married and still does not own a home. He does however have 6 1/2 years of employment history (bonus).

A key thing to understand about Mr. Kiley as it appears he and Rex Hime had a bit of a legal battle over ballot titles. Kiley was barred from trying to deceive the voters a second time – being forced to use the generic term “Small Businessman” as opposed to Cattle Rancher. Hime was not allowed to use Taxpayer Advocate, instead using Small Business Advocate. (An interesting term for a lobbyist!)

It is the opinion of this Blogger that the OSE-Kiley Cattle Company is a pile of bovine excrement. If they actually sell some cattle and Mr. Kiley actually gets his hands dirty on a head of cattle, I will gladly change my opinion. In the words of Brian Dahle, “I actually sold 50 head of cattle, good luck to you!”

Dave Gillard, Kevin Kiley’s Campaign manager is a zen master at creating impressive sounding biographies for candidates with swiss cheese backgrounds. Turning Kevin Kiley in to a cattle rancher, specifically to try and combat the real life history of Brian Dahle is Pulitzer Prize level. I think it may be Gilliard’s finest work this side of Bethypoo and her sudden ownership of an Insurance Agency after years of domestic living.

If I ran for office, I’d hire Dave Gilliard. He’d probably turn me in to a Pastor while characterizing my past as working in the Chemistry field.

Kevin Kiley won his election in 2016 for a variety of reasons beyond his “resume”. They matter here in 2019 and are worth repeating in context of the 2 1/2 years hence. We’re going to dive in to the 2016 election as our expose’ on Kevin Kiley continues…

The 2016 Primary was epic. We may never see a hit 3 opponent hit piece ever again