There is a reason why I am predicting a loss of 4-6 seats in the legislature for the GOP (It could be as many as 8, by the way) and have been stating as such for several months. The current leadership of the CAGOP are failing miserably.
Frank: Massive Voter Registration Losses in California GOP Targeted Races
It is time to end the happy talk, the crowing about voter registration and by omitting the facts, district by district registration numbers. In the past few days, CRP Chair sent the following to Republicans:
“422,225 New Republicans registered since CAGOP Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson was elected in 2019
113,744 New Republicans registered since the last report in July 2020
289,473 New Republicans registered since the beginning of 2020”
Not mentioned: in spite of the lack of a California Republican Party voter registration program. Not mentioned: that as Chair she receives over a two-year period, $500,000 in salary, but the allocation for voter registration in the same period is $50,000—and most of that money is UNSPENT. The Board has set its priority and voter registration is NOT on the list.
MOST IMPORTANTLY SHE DOES NOT MENTION THAT IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD THE DEMOCRATS REGISTERED 1,500,000 NEW VOTERS! THAT IS THREE AND HALF TIMES THE NUMBER OF Republicans registered. This is the classic definition of failure that they unwisely drew attention to with a misleading email.
Elections are won district by district. So how did we do in the targeted, hard fought races around the State? Below is a list of ten targeted races. In EVERY one we had massive voter registration losses, from January 1. 2019 to the 60 day close, September 4, 2020.
Stephen Frank, Exclusive to the California Political News and Views, 10/5/20
The first step to recovery for an addict is to admit you have a problem. The California Republican Party, led by Chair Jessica Patterson is not ready for recovery. Instead of explaining why they do not have a voter registration program, they publish partial statistics—read it carefully, they never say that their programs are successful, just that while in office these people registered as Republican. Not mentioned in their propaganda is that during the same time period, January 1, 2019 to September 4, 2020, the Democrats registered 1.5 million NEW Democrats.
As we watch the returns on November 3, remember these numbers. We have lost two years of voter registration under the current Chair. Actually, the CRP stopped voter registration in March of 2013. (This is not a typo.) If 400,000 people registered as GOP’ers on their own, imagine how many more would do so if the CRP had a registration program!
Due to the massive registration losses in targeted races, we must spend more money to keep or win those seats.
This is what Politico wrote, using facts, not hiding them:
THEY’RE NUMBER TWO! — “California Republicans reclaim second-place status from independents,” by POLITICO’s Jeremy B. White: “Still, the party has lots of work to do. There are still fewer registered Republicans than there were between 2000 and 2012, although the party is rebounding from its 2016 nadir. … Democrats saw the largest overall gains since last cycle, adding some 1.6 million registered voters. Their edge over Republicans increased by some 1.3 million voters between 2016 and 2020.
“And the numbers could indicate a negative development for Republicans:more no-party-preference voters registering as Democrats . While Republican’s share of the electorate remained stable from 2018 to 2020, Democrats expanded their share as the proportion of party-less voters declined. … There are now 21.2 million registered voters, which is 84.7 percent of the eligible voter pool — the highest share in the last 68 years. It’s also some 3 million more registered voters than in 2016.”
Here are the real numbers, all from the web site of the California Secretary of State. Is this a winning hand?
21 Congressional District Valadao
2018 Dem 99,763 GOP 62,571 NPP 58,229
2020 Dem 110,367 GOP 68,664 NPP 57,949
Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019 4,611
25 Congressional District Garcia
2018 Dem 144,965 GOP 127, 900 NPP 100,137
2020 Dem 168,344 GOP 136,138 NPP 95,496
Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019: 15331
39 Congressional District Young Kim
2018 Dem 125,668 GOP 123,679 NPP 110,842
2020 Dem 149,989 GOP 166,251 NPP 102,767
Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019 14,735
45 Congressional District Raths
2018 Dem 128,450 GOP 157,929 NPP 121,613
2020 Dem 157,989 GOP 166,251 NPP 114,394
Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019 15,217
48 Congressional District Steel
2018 Dem 121,523 GOP 144,872 NPP—-110,842
2020 Dem 156,646 GOP 167,375 NPP—102,023
Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019 12,620
21st State Senate Wilk
2018 Dem 176,769 GOP 149,437 NPP 120,548
2020 Dem 208,289 GOP 166,384 NPP 117,003
Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019 14, 593
29 Senate District Chang
2018 Dem 163,812 GOP 144,318 NPP 129,043
2020 Dem 193,226 GOP 156,169 NPP 124,115
Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019 17,988
37 Senate District Moorlach
2018 Dem 168,586 GOP 196,990 NPP 156,260
2020 Dem 205,778 GOP 207,533 NPP 145,192
Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019 26,659
35 Assembly District Cunningham
2018 Dem 87,690 GOP 86,691 NPP 63,537
2020 Dem 100,413 GOP 91,534 NPP 56,901
Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019 7,480
55 Assembly District Chen
2018 Dem 79,363 GOP 85,278 NPP 70,340
2020 Dem 96,274 GOP 92,629 NPP 72,770
Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019 9,580
68 Assembly Choi
2018 Dem 80,493 GOP 95,468 NPP 74,978
2020 Dem 101,034 GOP 101,525 NPP 72,589
Dems net gain over GOP since January 1. 2019 14,474
There is not a single legislative district in California where we had a net gain over the Democrats.
What has the CRP done over the past two years? The first responsibility for a political party is to register voters. Also note that on the ballot, between Assembly, State Senate and Congress there are more than 25 races without a Republican on the November ballot. No voter registration, few candidates— the CAGOP leadership need to tell the truth and stop distracting us with misleading numbers that do not tell the full story. We are adults, we deserve the truth.
All of these numbers came from the Secretary of State’s web site. We deserve better than this? As I like to say, “Leaders Lead”—is this leadership?
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