Jul 312019
 

Bob Elliott is 70. He will be 72 within weeks of taking office. Even with the advances of modern medicine and increasing longevity (until Obama took office that is), 70 is still 70.

CA-10 is a Targeted Seat that is Dem +3.6% in Registration with a whopping 24.6% Independent Vote. This will never be an easy seat for anyone that lives in it. This means that the incumbent congressman will be under pressure to be back in his district as often as possible. Can a 72 year old man endure the physical drain of flying 3300 miles and three time zones twice a week for months on end? I’m 48 and I shudder to think about that in my own circumstance.

Elliott also has limited resources in his campaign account – most are rollovers from his Supervisor or State Senate Account. Will Elliott be able to raise any more money or support or has he peaked?

Bob Elliott’s primary resume is his service as a San Joaquin County Supervisor. CA-10 lists only 25% of its’ voter universe in San Joaquin County.

Mr. Elliott also has a problem with the demographics of CA-10, CA-10 is 42% Latino. While Latinos are not guaranteed to discriminate against White Candidates, (see also Andy Vidak) consider that a disproportionate amount of Latinos are under 40 (heck, under 30). It has been my observation that people will vote for their father, but not their Grandfather making it a net negative for Mr. Elliott.

Even the lilly white AD-73 has a similar problem with 71 Year old Ed Sachs vetting a run against the embattled and scandal-marred Bill Brough. Unless Sachs has $1,000,000 to spend (and Ana Bryson did when she lost to Brough in the original tilt) or Bob Elliott has $1MM to make up for the glaring presentation weakness, it is a problem.

Elliott’s Facebook Page has 199 likes and he has yet to set up a website, thus suggesting that he may also not be tech savvy.

Ted Howze is 51. Thus, his age is less of an issue. Howze has also been a veterinarian in the district for many years which will give him connection to the voters in Stanislaus County (75% of the electorate).

Howze has 4+ times the resources as Mr. Elliott. It has been put to me that Mr. Howze has the ability to spend nearly limitless resources on his campaign. This will neutralize one of Josh Harder’s key strengths as Harder is almost 100% funded by PAC’s and Special Interests despite his pledge not to be beholden to them.

The third Republican candidate Marla Livengood, a lobbyist, somehow has less than $30,000 in her campaign. I am seriously not sure why she is still running for congress.

The tale of the tape in CA-10 is as follows:

Josh Harder democrat incumbent, age 35 puppet of Nancy Pelosi, Jarrod Nadler, Elijah Cummings – #1 Fundraiser of the vulnerable democrats.

CA-10: 42% Latino, Registration: 36.7% Dem, 33.1% Rep and a whopping 24.6% DTS.

Bob Elliott, has about $140K in the Bank, Age 70.

Ted Howze, has $675K in the Bank, Age 51.

Marla Livengood, has $30K in the Bank. Age 39.

This is one of the cases where the most conservative candidate (Howze) may well be the most viable candidate in the race. I think by any objective measure as a Republican that Ted Howze is the choice.

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