There is only one thing I see coming this fall – Anti Incumbent Fervor

by | Jun 25, 2026 | 2026 Elections | 7 comments

Washington may want to prepare itself for a difficult conversation with the American people.

The message voters are sending ahead of this fall’s midterm elections is becoming increasingly clear:

They’re tired of the people currently in charge.

Not just one party.

Not just one chamber.

Not just one politician.

Congress itself.

The latest polling suggests that voters are in a deeply anti-incumbent mood, one that resembles the frustration seen during previous political wave elections. More importantly, the anger appears to be directed at the institution rather than any single political figure.

Voters Want Change

According to the survey, 63 percent of likely voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for someone other than the incumbent in their race this year.

Among them, 34 percent say they are very likely to vote against the incumbent.

Only 18 percent say they are unlikely to vote for a challenger, while another 18 percent remain undecided.

Those are not numbers that make sitting officeholders sleep well at night.

Incumbents traditionally enjoy substantial advantages:

  • name recognition,
  • fundraising networks,
  • established political organizations,
  • and the visibility that comes with holding office.

Yet despite those advantages, a significant majority of voters are actively looking for alternatives.

That tells us something important.

This is not simply dissatisfaction with individual politicians.

It is dissatisfaction with the status quo.

A Familiar Political Mood

The findings closely mirror public sentiment from 2018, when 65 percent of voters indicated they were likely to vote against incumbents.

History shows that when voters begin looking for change across the board, elections can become unpredictable very quickly.

What makes this year’s environment noteworthy is that frustration appears to be widespread and bipartisan.

Americans may disagree on policy.

They may disagree on candidates.

They may disagree on solutions.

But many appear to agree on one thing:

Congress is not working the way it should.

If They Could, Many Would Start Over

Perhaps the most revealing finding in the survey involves a hypothetical question.

If voters had the opportunity to remove every member of Congress and start over, would they?

A majority answered yes.

Fifty-five percent of voters say they would vote to get rid of the entire Congress and start over.

Only 22 percent would keep the current Congress in place.

Another 22 percent remain unsure.

Think about that for a moment.

More than half the country would be willing to dismiss every senator and representative in Washington and begin again from scratch.

That level of frustration is difficult to ignore.

Why Are Voters So Frustrated?

The reasons are not difficult to understand.

Americans have watched years of:

  • partisan gridlock,
  • growing federal debt,
  • rising living costs,
  • endless investigations,
  • political theater,
  • and legislative stalemate.

Many voters increasingly believe Congress spends more time arguing than governing.

Whether the issue is immigration, spending, public safety, energy policy, healthcare, or election integrity, voters often feel Washington talks about problems far more than it solves them.

That perception creates fertile ground for anti-incumbent sentiment.

Not Quite a Record, But Still Significant

The current number is lower than the all-time high reached in 2013, when a staggering 78 percent of voters wanted to replace the entire Congress.

Still, 55 percent remains an extraordinarily high level of dissatisfaction.

Most elected officials would struggle to survive performance reviews with approval numbers like these.

Yet Congress continues to operate under conditions that would be unacceptable in virtually any other profession.

That reality is not lost on voters.

The Midterm Warning

For incumbents seeking reelection this fall, the lesson is straightforward.

Voters are not necessarily looking for perfection.

They are looking for results.

The traditional advantages of incumbency may not be enough in an environment where voters increasingly view experience as part of the problem rather than part of the solution.

Political labels may matter less this year than public frustration.

And frustration is a powerful motivator at the ballot box.

The Bottom Line

The latest polling suggests the country is entering the midterm election season with a strong anti-incumbent mood.

A majority of voters are considering challengers.

A majority would replace Congress entirely if given the opportunity.

And many Americans appear increasingly convinced that Washington has become disconnected from the concerns of ordinary citizens.

Whether that frustration produces a political wave remains to be seen.

But one thing is clear:

When voters begin talking about replacing everyone, incumbents should start paying attention.

7 Comments

  1. lolol oh my, was this brought on by the NY massacre??

    SOME voters want changes….not in California. We still want shiny objects. Ergo, why hilton is the nominee.

    8088 votes I got…………wow for me!! who cares for you folks, right? I did FAR better than you twits ever imagined I ever could; stood on stage with less than stellar candidates YOU people pushed onto the public. To see what again?
    A blue wave massacre in November. Simple math, shows us the story.

    You wanted changes?? I offered them up…….you wanted solutions? I offered them up. What I DID NOT offer up, was my soul, integrity nor morales to be considered up for sale.

    I was not controllable. I would not yield to political-know-it-alls. I would not support consultants. I would not ‘play nice nice in the sand box’ with people who don’t give 2-shits about California. I was not enamored by carl demaio nor impressed by generally anyone or anything in the Republican party. Why should I be? What have they DONE, in 30 years, besides lose?

    Nothing.

    You forced ol chad down our throats, and look what happened to him. HA!! Told you, he’d never move past 13% in numbers. He barely won his own COUNTY, with less than 13% in the 2022 election.
    hliton was and still is, forced down our throats, why? What has HE got that made it past the so called, “Republican smell test” when candidates are vetted?

    Nothing.

    Oh, for now, it’s the DEM establishment that’s worried. Socialists taking over! COMMIES amongst us!!! What’s it all mean?
    Absolutely, nothing.

    YOUNG people don’t care about commies, or socialists or isms………..they WANT things to be different.
    Old labels, you and I understand….these folks? They could care less.
    What they DO see, are older, entrenched both party rejects pretending to care and lead our Nation, to what end?
    The party elites only.

    So, the next time someone suggests to you: “you should run for…….(insert THEIR choice for you) office to make changes”……

    tell that person to EFF OFF…………….and DO YOU.
    They don’t know jack diddly. Usually, they never ran nor will they ever run, for anything major.
    Jealousy sucks, and they embrace it.

    You think it’s rough now? Wait till TRUMP bows out in 2028. TRUMP REJECTION will be the national mood of the day, Democrats will cease on it, and Republican’s? They’ll still have their fingers in their collective BUM, waiting for something to change………………beyond their age and Central Committee titles they swap religiously.

    Dam Shame.

  2. Just so you know, I, like many, have crunched the numbers in those northern CD races. Unless something shakes up the voter pool, we will lose CD1. I hope I am wrong on CD1 and Gallagher finds the votes he needs…but don’t see in in the primary numbers. C2…Dems will keep. CD3 if the Dems keep or improve their primary numbers, since Ibera is a sitting member of Congress, he will win by 7-9 points. The numbers are not there. CD4 is already lost. We will need to hold our noses and vote for Thompson…Jones if elected will be there for decades…Thompson is long in the tooth and will likely retire soon. McClintock will hold in CD5 for the GOP, CD6 Kiley dumped on the GOP he will have no chance against Pan and lose by 5-6 points…The numbers support the Dems. If we have a great GOTV we might flip one or two….but I don’t see help coming from the CRP or NRCC.

  3. Trump just (July 09, 2026) fired all three remaining Election Assistance Commision members. Now let us sit back and watch Gavin Newsom squirm even more. The incumbents should ALL be worried now. As most know, the success rate of unseating an incumbent is very low.

    Who exactly was Newsom talking about when he said California would arrest anyone seizing ballots (as if anyone does that, right?) before County officials have counted them? And I thought there were already laws on the books making this a felony? Why come out and act tough? Distraction. Look up what is on the record, not what he says in press conferences-always borrowing Trump tactics but it smells like a bad imitation of real meat. The clock is ticking loudly in the Golden State. Both parties should be very worried about the midterms of 2026 and beyond. The only question left to ponder is what kind of distraction will they pull? Wildfire(arson)? Terrorism? Illness? Fake sexual assault allegations? Power outages? Internet outages? A new novel virus? Fake aliens?

    California was never blue.

    And Lynyrd, please keep yourself in the arena. Many do actually hear you and respect that you didn’t sell your soul. I bet you lost a lot of “friends” maintaining your integrity.

  4. “Remember the $24 billion in homeless money Gavin Newscum supposedly “lost”?

    No, it wasn’t. It was funneled to some of the most profitable organizations on the planet: NGOs.

    Democrats gave an NGO $23 million.

    The NGO used it to buy:

    A mansion in Los Angeles
    A $125,000 Land Rover
    A second home in Greece

    How was it exposed?

    Bill Essayli
    United States Attorney for the Central District of California.

    He has identified 12 more NGOs across California that are under investigation for similar fraud.

    This is how U.S. NGOs have amassed $14.2 trillion in assets—an amount equal to roughly half of the U.S. national debt.”

    https://x.com/Real_RobN/status/2075273955599122851?s=20

  5. “The federal government admitted that the machines are not legally certified to be used and there are no longer EAC commissioners to accredit labs to test systems for certification to replace the illegal ones, sooooooo…..let’s all finish this chess game and remove the machines!”

    What do the County Election managers do now? Go ahead and use the machines anyway that cannot be legitimately certified? Or take a stand, abide by federal law, and “risk” a cushy government job? What would you readers do?

  6. Your move Bronco.

  7. “After Election Day, Placer County Elections conducts a random hand count of a certain percentage of precincts and all the ballots cast in those precincts. The precincts for this hand count are randomly selected the day after Election Day so that the votes are known before the random draw is performed.”

    Random. Interesting use of the word-twice. “Known before the random draw” is interesting too.

    So much cope and defensiveness from Placer County. Why? Who actually wrote all this garbage? Who approved it? I bet you aren’t allowed to know. Go ahead and call them; you’ll hit a roadblock and be treated like a terrorist that has no right to question government. Guess we need to focus more on what Safeway is open in Tahoe? Shame on you Gusty!

    Placer County uses Dominion BTW. What does the word Dominion mean? You can say it’s Liberty, but we all know there is no liberty in any voting machine company. Any organization with a name like “liberty” or “patriot” is usually diametrically opposed to the real definition of the word-known age old communism tactic. Time for Placer whistleblowers (in ALL County Departments) to come out of the shadows. We have your backs-if you have ours. County Counsel? Counsel? Anyone there? Placer government is bloated beyond all recognition. Look up highest paid Placer County employees. I bet you will be astonished at who it is and what they are paid in our money. Do we really need them?

    https://www.placercountyelections.gov/liberty-vote/

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