Apr 292016
 

There was a reason why Kevin Kiley sandbagged his financial report so he could have a look at everyone else’s reports – he needed to try to stop the narrative that he is the Bay Area candidate.

Fact – 75% of Kiley’s MONEY came from outside the district. In his release, he claims that 2/3 of his donations are from inside the district. This is called Spin and is indicative of how lawyers attempt to manipulate audiences.

Young Mr. Kiley can not spin the fact that he is funded by the Bay Area. His report says clearly that an intermediary in the Bay Area brokered many of his contributions. It appears that he has deduced that this fact may be a problem in #AD06.

His campaign manager is the son of one of his Bay Area money connections.

His form 700 (economic interest statement) shows connections to more Bay Area interests.

Kiley is 31, single, never married, and has had 3 jobs in the 4 years since leaving Law School. The life experience #EPICFAIL is what it is.

If it was not for staged photos and volunteers that have not reached the age of consent yet, Kiley may have a legitimate campaign.

Apr 292016
 

Let’s go from the bottom up.

Suzanne Jones, has $2500 left. Has lent herself about $10k

Kevin Hanley, has a net $54k left. Has bought some radio and some mail. Has only raised about $20k from people not named Kevin Hanley.

The first real news is that Cristi Nelson raised about $23k TOTAL in 2016. After the reports cut off, Nelson’s Husband went to a couple vendors for another $10k which leaves Nelson with $106k in the bank, just enough to re-pay the $100k loan.

Andy Pugno has given himself $101k, and lent himself 100k + has gotten an additional $16,800 in loans from family. When you subtract his unpaid bills from his cash total, he has about $215k in the bank. Pugno is in debt to Tim Clark, who was hired by Rob Manafort to work for Donald Trump, $15k of the $47k in unpaid bills he reported.

If you are scoring at home: 10K Jones, 105K Hanley, 201K Pugno, 100K Nelson = 416K chipped in by Republican candidates on themselves.

Nelson has raised a little more than 105K, Hanley, 15K, Pugno about 25K and Jones about 10K for a total of $155K.

This is insane. Of The total $571k reported by the above, only 27% of it was raised, the remaining 73% was from their own pocket.

Now, to young Mr. Kiley. The reports showed that the $80k in out of district money he reported was raised for him by an intermediary. This matches the impression I had of his campaign and fundraising all along. In addition, the overwhelming majority of his money is from out of district.

Kiley has given himself $8400 out of his 238K raised. That is not an issue. The real issue is that over half of his money is from Bay Area donors.

Kiley’s campaign crew made sue to leave him with 100k in the bank for the psychological value of having six figures. This is also similar to the staged pictures and the super selective campaign activity designed to create an appearance. It remains to be seen if substance will follow.

Now to my guy, Bill Halldin.

He did not use an intermediary to raise his $230k. He did not come out of pocket for anything significant (maybe $2k) and he raised $230k in 6 less months than young Mr. Kiley.

Halldin reported $130k net in the bank. This puts him in a clear first place, especially since none of the money in his account is his own.

Kiley and Pugno have already sent their first mail pieces and the storm is landing now. Buckle up people.

Do not believe anyone’s press releases – here are the raw numbers

Candidate         TIME IN CAMPAIGN           Amount Raised                Amount of Own Money+Loans         Net Raised

Cristi Nelson    18 Months                              208k                                     100k                                                            108k

Andy Pugno     2 months                                260k                                     201K + 17K                                                 42k

Kevin Hanley  6 months                                 125k                                     105k                                                              20k

Kevin Kiley      11 months                                238k                                   8k                                                                   230k

Bill Halldin     6 months                                  230k                                   5k                                                                    225k

 

Kevin Kiley had to get outside help to draw even in the money race, something he can not keep up. Bill Halldin is the clear front-runner, because real donors equal real support. When you look closer, over 2/3 of his money is from inside the district. No hyperbole here, just facts.

Apr 282016
 

This update is 100% to inform the universe to tell them that likely Kiley is writing his press release because he can see everyone’s report but his own. The fine for being a day late is pretty minor, just a cost of doing business.

Update: Within an hour of this post going live, Kiley filed his report. Why did I have to swat him in order to get him to comply with the law? And, will this be a trend should he get elected? He would not be the only officeholder I’d be swatting periodically…

Apr 252016
 

Nelson EPICFAILWhen you get in to a campaign and it is not well thought out you #EPICFAIL routinely. Click the screenshot of the Campaign Facebook Page of Cristi Nelson.

#AD10 comprises all of Marin County and some of Sonoma County. Point Reyes National Seashore is in AD10. I could show Cristi Beckstead-Nelson some cool hiking spots in #AD10. Heck John Muir Redwoods and Golden Gate National Rec Area are also in #AD10. I’d get lost trying to campaign in that district.

Beckstead-Nelson forgot her own name apparently and has also forgotten what district she is running for. This 11 person race is getting more bizarre by the second.

For those of you that are still wondering about AD10 – check out a photo or two of it:

Autosave-File vom d-lab2/3 der AgfaPhoto GmbH

(Pictured – Point Reyes National Seashore near the main lighthouse)

Apr 252016
 

Donnelly-LogoI have written ad naseum about Tim Donnelly. He is a fraud. I have made a clear case to prove it. He makes conservatives look like frauds. I have been pretty clear about my disdain for a lot of conservative frauds in office – but Donnelly is in a league of his own.

In my opinion, Donnelly should be in jail for fraud along with Lauren Stephens, his pet Chiahuahua who is also running for Fresno County Supervisor.

In 2013 – Sharon Gilbert of the Examiner sounded the alarm about Tim Donnelly’s plans. She wrote clearly about a contemptible man she knew well:

Donnelly was telling people to vote for Paul Cook, not Gregg Imus. For many, that was perplexing. For those in the know, it was not surprising.

Donnelly’s rationale was simple. He did not like Cook as Cook was a moderate Republican and could walk across the aisle to cut a deal, something Donnelly was incapable of doing. But Cook was also up there in age and has had serious health issues. The thought was that Cook would be in Congress less than ten years and likely only three terms. At the end of three terms, if not sooner, Donnelly could pick off Cook.

Donnelly’s goal was, and is, to be the next CD8 representative. The voters of CD8 are conservative enough to elect a Tim Donnelly as their representative.

I believed Sharon then and Tim Donnelly’s disaster of a guv campaign made it clear that Gilbert had nailed his agenda.

Donnelly is a disaster personally. He owes a ton of people money and had to try to raise a few bucks as his radio show was not cutting the mustard. Lauren Stephens and Tim Donnelly hatched a plan to try a referendum against SB277 – the third referendum Tim Donnelly was involved in.

I wrote about the SB277 “effort” a few times. The bottom line – I believe that Tim Donnelly ripped donors off for as much as $70k. The reports from the effort made it clear that Donnelly did indeed rake in $25k for his radio show, but there was a lot more money unaccounted for. Read More about the SB277 Referendum Scam here and Read more about the SB277 Referendum Scam here.

Sharon Gilbert’s Second Post in 2013 (after former Donnelly Chief of Staff Gregg Imus was defeated for Congress by Paul Cook) was a brutal expose’ of several things I would learn about Tim Donnelly over the last three years both factually and via anecdotal evidence:

The next time Tim is in a public forum, here are some questions to ask him (and demand full answers):

  1. Why were you in possession of an illegal firearm in an airport?

  2. Are you allowed to legally register firearms in your name now? Is that a term of probation or are their other reasons? What are those reasons?

  3. Prior to the airport incident, why were you not allowed to have a firearm registered in your name?

  4. How many bankruptcies have you filed, either as an individual or as part of a company or partnership?

  5. How many properties did you or do you own that have gone into foreclosure? In what states?

  6. Have you been convicted of a felony?

  7. Have you been taken into protective custody for being a danger to yourself or to others? Have you been subjected to a 72-hour mental health hold?

  8. What is the story with the strippers? How much debt do you have due to your sexual addiction?

  9. Why did you refuse to endorse Gregg Imus for Congress?

  10. Why did you provide the photo of the Imus house in Maine to the Paul Cook campaign?

  11. What other information about Imus did you (or your wife or thru a friend) did you provide to the Cook campaign?

  12. Why did you privately tell some of your supporters to vote for Paul Cook?

  13. When you were at the border, did you ever make racist or threatening remarks?

  14. When you were at the border, were you ever in possession of a weapon you could not legally possess.

  15. Have you ever been declined to buy a firearm by a licensed Federal Firearms dealer? When (month and year)?

I personally asked Tim Donnelly if he had a police record, knowing that he had been arrested for a felony in Michigan that he plead down to a misdemeanor. He bald-faced lied to me about having any sort of police record. The media found the misdemeanor during his guv run, but never followed up to find out the rest of the story.

I am also familiar with Tim Donnelly’s personal life, including his habits and his massive personal debt. I only have stories from several people, one of whose businesses failed due in part to Donnelly’s actions. Given that Donnelly lied to me about his police record, and his bizarre personal behavior – I am inclined to believe the stories.

After seeing the scam he ran that screwed the mothers of California out of their chance to overturn the police-state vaccination law, nothing I hear about Donnelly surprises me.

It is my understanding that Paul Cook will demolish Tim Donnelly at the ballot box. Tim Donnelly belongs in an institution, not in any other office. Please, voters of CD08, make him go away.

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