With Ted Gaines blowing out Roger Niello in the SD-01 Primary, it will touch off a chain-reaction.
Ken Cooley the Democrat is a huge underdog in the district which is tilted 18 points in the GOP’s favor.
This means barring something utterly amazing – Gaines wins. This vacates the AD04 seat which will touch off a feeding frenzy. Here are the prospective suitors:
1. John Allard – has been preparing to run for Assembly for a couple years. He is a City Council Member in Roseville, the largest city in the district. Allard would likely be supported by Tom McClintock, Dan Logue and a host of local electeds. Allard is termed out of Roseville City Council in 2012.
2. Scott Yuill – recently re-elected in Rocklin to City Council. He has been heavily recruited by Doug LaMalfa who needs friends after the win by Ted Gaines – given that LaMalfa’s staff have been on a revenge mission against anyone that supported LaMalfa’s primary opponent, the need for a friend is acute. Biggest question is why would Yuill run after recently getting re-elected just days ago?
Yuill and Allard would be the front-runners – Yuill would be regarded as the more moderate of the two.
3. El Dorado County Supervisor Ray Nutting. Nutting represents only about 15,000 people. He is a conservative with a reputation for being an aggressive campaigner.
4. El Dorado County Supervisor Ron Briggs. Briggs and Nutting hate each other and the El Dorado County Sheriff’s race – won by Nutting’s candidate was a small county knock down drag out for the ages. Briggs will run if Nutting runs, specifically to deny him ElDorado County’s base, and setting up a re-match of the Sheriff’s race by proxy.
5. Auburn City Councilmember Mike Holmes. He would easily be the most moderate candidate in the field – recently supporting the Auburn Unified School District Parcel Tax Measure that failed.
6. Auburn City Councilmember Kevin Hanley – endorsed Tom McClintock over Doug Ose, distinguishing himself from almost every local elected in Placer County. Could compete with Allard for McClintock endorsement if he ran.
7. Auburn City Councilmember Keith Nesbitt. Another “Auburn Moderate”.
8. Michael Babich – ran against Tom McClintock in the 2010 Primary. Conservative University Professor with a small, yet loyal following.
9. Spencer Short – Lincoln City Councilmember whose name always pops up in higher office discussions. Regarded as a moderate – just lost a battle to institute a utility tax in Lincoln, his two endorsed candidates lost to two Tea Party Members and could be subject of a recall by said Tea Party.
10. Suzanne Jones. Ran for Congress in 2008, getting 5% of Vote in the Ose v McClintock epic battle. Ran for AD-05 in 2010, got around 11% of the vote. Ran for Placer County Board of Education fall 2010, won with 38% of the vote. (4,600 votes total)
11. Donald Wilson – head consultant for Senate Veteran’s Affairs Committee. We recently re-elected to Center Unified School District board with about 700 votes. (where’s his base?)
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