After reading Matt Rexroad’s comments about the results of re-distircting – I have determined the following:
1. The process was corrupt, but not as bad as if it had been done in Sacramento.
2. The GOP Registration is 30.9% statewide and falling, yet we have a fighting chance to maintain as much as 36% of the seats.
3. In-fighting within the CA GOP is as responsible for the results of these new lines as the commission was/is. This includes what many of you have been reading about on this blog for weeks. It is time to put a stop to it – which means:
4. “Leaders” within the GOP who avoid conflict at all costs, and others who are so self-focused that the facts are cast aside must also be dealt with or rehabilitated in to dynamic leaders. The GOP needs to stop waiting for the next Reagan while a generation of relative weaklings continue to shuffle the deck chairs on the titanic.
Assuming that these lines hold up after the flurry of lawsuits – here’s what I know at this time:
Ted Gaines is moving in to the new SD-01. The nexus for why Gaines / LaMalfa decided to team up in “attacking” the Placer Cent Com is certainly there as the two will be stuck with each other in the State Senate for 6 years. Placer County will represent a significant voting block for both of them.
LaMalfa has a clean shot at SD-04 for re-election in 2014.
Dan Logue has moved in to the new AD-01. He will get his third and final term from 2013-2014.
Jim Nielsen was a big winner – his nemesis Charlie Schaupp who came close (within 6,000 votes) to beating him in the 2010 Primary has been drawn out of that district. However, the nexus for the cheap shots against Dan Logue has effectively been removed as Nielsen and Logue will now live in different State Senate Seats – since Ted Gaines does not term out until 2020 and LaMalfa in 2018… that’s beyond eternity in Politics.
Beth Gaines – AD06. Only has to worry about John Allard, that is if her team can’t convince Allard to wait until 2016. Alyson Huber has already bailed out on running against Beth Gaines in a bungling filing for Congress.
Kevin Hanley – AD05, he is not a candidate yet. However, El Dorado County Supervisor Ray Nutting is. Nutting ran for Assembly against Rico Oller in 1998, and has wanted to serve in the Assembly since at least 10 years before that.
Wally Herger CD-01 – likely, Herger will retire in 2014. This would tee up LaMalfa for Congress on phase and set up the moderate Jim Nielsen vs a Conservative prop 14 cluster primary in 2014. Herger would support Nielsen.
Tom McClintock CD-04. Will Lungren stay in CD-07 now that it has been drawn to a D+1 registration district? Does Roger Niello run for CD-07?
The rumors are that someone is going to challenge Tom McClintock in the primary. They will get hammered as McClintock, despite his perceived flaws, enjoys huge popularity with the voters of both the old and new CD-04. (Which is the 2nd most lopsided Rep district in California)
What does Roger Niello run for next? He can win any of the marginal districts in Eastern Sacramento County – it should be interesting.