Dec 132018
 

A conservative Latino’s view on politics…

The California Republican Party (CAGOP) has been losing this state exponentially since 2006. After the utter destruction in the 2018 midterms, publicly disgraced and scandal-ridden former Republican state vice-chair Kristin Olsen conveniently puts the blame on President Donald Trump. Ms. Olsen, a leader in the CAGOP, needs to look in the mirror.

At the lack of programs such as voter registration, not fielding challengers and properly funding them. Not challenging voter fraud. Not preparing for unethical, corrupt but legal “ballot harvesting” that makes voter fraud even easier. Most importantly, ignoring Californians and having a clear conservative message on what Democrats are doing and have done to hurt us all, especially the working-class and poor.

These issues combined with a constant betrayal of “RINO” (Republican in Name Only) politicians continually breaking constituent promises is why California’s a Democrat-controlled state. These are just a few of many CAGOP failures, yet Ms. Olsen blames Trump.

Ms. Olsen knows all this. She’s blaming Trump because he makes a convenient straw man to try to hide CAGOP failures since 2006. This once proud red-state is now deep-blue because Ms. Olsen and the Republican Party chose to ignore and lose touch with, “we the people.”

It’s unsurprising when a publicly humiliated, establishment, elitist blames Trump. Ironic because the CAGOP establishment kneels at the feet of donor masters to promote and bring us Democrat-lite. Instead of embracing the middle and working class and fighting to keep values that create opportunities for the poor and lower-income, she and CAGOP leadership let the Democrat Party successfully lie to constituents. Leading to Democrats creating higher taxes and fees, businesses fleeing the state and making it as difficult as humanly possible for small-business owners to survive. That sickens me. The current Republican Party leadership nauseates me. Ms. Olsen, your words disgust me.

Enough! Yes! Demographics are Changing!

All we’ve heard since 1986 is that demographics are changing. This simply means we have a new group of Americans we must take conservatism to. Instead, Republicans complain. Do you think liberalism is the only political ideology in Mexico? Guatemala? Honduras? Nicaragua? Panama? South America? NO, IT’S NOT! Ms. Olsen, you state, “It’s because the Republican Party has failed to adapt to changing demographics…” Yes, that’s the problem and you’re part of it!

Distancing the CAGOP to play the victim is pitiful. You and the CAGOP haven’t reached out to these communities with a conservative Republican message. It’s not just Latinos but Africans, Asians, Middle-Eastern groups, LGBT and any other group that seeks the “American Dream.” You only reach out to Californians registered Republican. It’s no wonder we keep losing because that’s a shrinking constituency.

On the flip side, Democrats are ready for all groups and especially immigrants. They approach through outreach programs and begin their indoctrination the moment they set foot in this country. Ms. Olsen, you ignore them and now – like a “pajama boy” – you complain and blame President Trump? Sadly, I’ve come to expect this from CAGOP leadership.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger

What steroids began shrinking, the California Unions finished by castrating then Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. Once done, Schwarzenegger kowtowed to his new leftist masters instead of doing the people’s will. He embraced and signed the California Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32)  that destroyed jobs and was a catalyst toward businesses fleeing the state.

He then promoted and helped pass Proposition 14, the Top-Two Primaries Amendment. The “Jungle Primaries” strengthened the power of the cash-rich unions, deep pocket special-interest groups and the wealthy elites – on both sides of the aisle. It did nothing but hurt the average Californian. Remember, the “Jungle Primaries” was a CAGOP creation by a donor master whose goal was to make the CAGOP center-left.

Let’s not forget, by the end of Schwarzenegger’s tenure, we were down 300,000 in voter registration. Since then, Ms. Olsen’s Republican Party has chosen to abandon registration efforts, dropping us to No. 3 in registered voters behind the Democrats and No Party Preference (NPP). However, according to Ms. Olsen and Schwarzenegger, this is Trump’s fault. The last I checked, Donald Trump became President in 2016, not 1986 or 2006.

Assembly Republican leader Chad Mayes (R-Yucca Valley)

More Recently? In 2017, eight Republicans led by former Assembly Republican leader Chad Mayes (R-Yucca Valley) and Assemblyman Rocky Chavez (R-Oceanside), voted for the wallet-busting bill, AB-398. Officially, the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006: market-based compliance mechanisms: fire prevention fees: sales and use tax manufacturing exemption, better known as the “cap and trade” bill. An already bad bill, they turned Schwarzenegger’s liberal legacy even more leftist!

These eight betrayed their conservative constituents. To make it worse, conservatives at the following convention, wanted to admonish them, but Ms. Olsen’s CAGOP establishment protected them. State leadership chose to protect Democrat Party and leftist values instead of defending Californians. Especially lower-income and poor constituents who can barely afford California’s cost of living. This, in turn, led to the devastating “gas tax” bill that is costing the average Californian nearly $800 more a year.

“…toxic, national brand of Republican politics.”

Ms. Olsen states, “The California Republican Party isn’t salvageable at this time. The Grand Old Party is dead – partly because it has failed to separate itself from today’s toxic, national brand of Republican politics.” A flat-out lie!

The CAGOP helped promote the same values of the national party. Epitomizing the national brand of bigger government, higher taxes, a growing deficit (see California pension tsunami) and crony capitalism. Ms. Olsen’s been a part of this CAGOP since 2010 while supporting the national brand. Now suddenly, it’s a toxic national brand, and Trump’s the root of the problem? Trump’s not the root of the problem; he’s the result of it because we grew tired of false promises the national party and CAGOP kept breaking.

Ms. Olsen, this is “the pot calling the kettle black.” It’s another try to shift blame from the CAGOP to Trump. You and your lot put us down this road by abandoning what made the Golden state great. When people think of our state, they now think of homelessness, public defecation, hypodermic needles and maps to avoid it. Let’s not forget sanctuary cities protecting criminals. The CAGOP is complicit. The depths Ms. Olsen goes to, to hide CAGOP failings have no shame.

Ms. Olsen states, “It is time for a New Way.” It’s not surprising to see her, Schwarzenegger and Mayes leading the “New Way” bowel movement. Another movement promoting liberal values that’ll keep Californians from achieving the “American Dream.”

“New Way,” A new NeverTrump Hate Group

When you enter the “New Way California” website, you’re greeted with, “IT’S TIME FOR A NEW WAY.” “JOIN US IF YOU THINK THE OLD WAY ISN’T WORKING”

Ms. Olsen, Mayes and Schwarzenegger believe, submissiveness to Democrat big union, big government and big liberal corporate interest in the name of bipartisanship is the “New Way.” Unless I’m mistaken, and I’m not, this “New Way” doctrine’s already in play with the current CAGOP. Legislative voting records prove this as do my examples.

This is another scam… excuse me, “New Way” by NeverTrump RINOs to remain in power and regain relevance. By blaming Trump, it’s a way to distance themselves from broken promises and all the problems they avoided or helped create. They state Trump doesn’t represent CAGOP values, but the “New Way” does?

I disagree and as a Californian for nearly 30 years, a proud conservative Latino and an American, Ms. Olsen’s comments and beliefs don’t ring true. Why? Well…

Some Trump Economic Accomplishments or Where Liberalism and Obama Failed

  • Black and Latino unemployment at a record low.
  • Black business ownership jumped 400 percent in one year.
  • Unemployment claims fell to a 45-year low.
  • Youth unemployment hit a 52-year low.
  • Trump shrunk government jobs by 16,000.
  • Construction jobs are up more than 300,000 compared to 2017.
  • There’re more Americans working than ever before.
  • Trump has consumer confidence at an 18-year high.

Some Trump Conservative Political Accomplishments

  • Trump secured the release of hostages in North Korea and Turkey.
  • Trump gave us two conservative judges for SCOTUS.
  • Trump nominated the first woman to head the CIA.
  • Trump nominated an openly gay man for ambassadorship of Germany.

These are just a fraction of Trump’s accomplishments. President Trump also has an approval rating of 51 percent, despite 90 percent negative mainstream media (MSM) coverage. Higher than former President Barrack Hussein Obama had at the same point in his presidency BUT with 90 percent positive MSM coverage!

Those accomplishments should be the goal of every state Republican Party yet Ms. Olsen refuses to embrace Trump’s accomplishments by cowering to the mainstream media and leftist narrative. That’s one reason we’re in this current state and one reason we have “President Trump.” The CAGOP refuses to fight and defend conservatism – the backbone and values of the Republican Party.

Florida and Georgia Defend Trump and Conservatism and WIN!

Florida Gov.-elect Ron DeSantis campaigned on conservatism while defending President Donald Trump. Touting Trump’s record for the economy and minorities while running against a black candidate, he earned a higher percentage of the black vote (18 percent) than anyone predicted or expected. This, despite race-hustling by his opponent, the Democrat Party, leftists and the MSM.

More black males (11 percent) voted for Georgia Gov.-elect Brian Kemp over a black candidate as well. Also, a race-hustler, this candidate had Obama and Oprah Winfrey campaign for her. Despite this, the message of conservatism backed by truth and fact won many Georgia minorities over. A shock to Democrats and the MSM that expects false narratives and dog whistles to win the day, it proves minorities grow tired of lies, demagoguery and false promises.

Like every other American, an opportunity to achieve the American Dream is all we want. When you defend the truth and use facts Ms. Olsen, you’ll be surprised at how Latinos, blacks and all minorities vote. You’ve just never tried and there lies the problem.

Some will say, these percentages still reflect a group that doesn’t believe in conservatism. Well, we must start somewhere Ms. Olsen. Instead of creating straw men, how about using your leadership position to begin fighting to achieve and grow these numbers. The problem may be; you’re not conservative, and you don’t want to fight for the Republican values you speak of.

Ironic, the party of Lincoln, the Grand Old Party. The party created to end slavery. The party that saw members make the supreme sacrifice. The party that led and helped women’s rights, including their right to vote. The party that led the way for the Civil Rights movement. The party that believed in the American Dream. The California Republican Party that’s now subservient to radical, leftist socialists who believe big government to control us is acceptable.

This has nothing to do with Trump, rather establishment cronies on the verge of losing everything. The little power you have is disintegrating. CAGOP campaign and election incompetence from years of impotence resulted in an epic meltdown of ineptitude by not seeing what the Democrats were doing with ballot harvesting. You and the CAGOP are now scrambling to hide your culpability in the 2018 midterms.

Twenty or 30 years ago, when elitists could control the narrative through the mainstream media, Ms. Olsen’s little article or tantrum as I see it, “My turn: GOP is dead in California. A new way must rise” would’ve worked in deceiving, “we the people.” No more. Finally, she states, “Republican principles used to be about helping other people.”

Ms. Olsen, they still do but the “New Way” doesn’t. The “New Way” is a highway to socialism and why you and your ilk will fail. The current CAGOP establishment ruling class lives off the backs of the people. It’s time for you to step aside and let fiscal, small government conservatives lead the CAGOP and bring back the vision that Abraham Lincoln spoke of and created. That Ronald Reagan implemented and restored. It’s time to give Californians a shot at the “American Dream.”

William Del Pilar is politically active, currently sitting on the Valley Center Community Planning Group (VCCPG). As an entrepreneur, Del Pilar drove his fantasy sports company to set the standard for analysis and news distribution, helping to commercialize the industry from 1997-2008.

Nov 182018
 

Please Note – I have endorsed Travis Allen for CAGOP Chairman, and will be authoring a series of posts about the CAGOP Chairman’s race in an attempt to inform my readers and CAGOP Delegates of the machinations of a Chairman’s Race.

In the aftermath of an electoral bloodbath, the dust is settling for the CA GOP and now new Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is looking to consolidate a base within his home State of California.

There is a term I have used to describe what is happening within the CAGOP – “Controlled Failure”. Who cares what happens, as long as we are in control. Welcome to an expose’ of two members of the shrinking oligarchy of Controlled Failure.

First – let me drop some knowledge on you related to Steve Frank, the elder statesman candidate who emailed me:

Just one correction in your blog.  I have NOT been involved in politics since 1968.  I started walking precincts for Nixon in 1960.  Was on the Nixon for Governors speakers bureau in 1962, was an office manager for Goldwater in 1964 and a regional Youth Chair for Reagan for Governor in 1966.  Del Becarro introduces me by the following, “Steve Frank has been around since before the Beatles….pause..the life form, not the singing group.”
 
I have been going to CRP conventions since July, 1966.
He did not correct me when I wrote that he is 74 years old. He was 58 in 2002 when I met him while he was working for Bill Simon. I think I remembered that correctly.
I was born in 1971, which means Steve Frank walked precincts for Nixon before your intrepid blogger, Andy Vidak, Jeff Denham, Travis Allen and Mimi Walters were born. This underscores the future versus past comments about Mr. Frank.
Your Intrepid Blogger was informed today that it looks like Former Congresswoman Mimi Walters is looking at some sort of post Congress career and not the CAGOP Chair. I was also made aware within the last 24 Hours that Jeff Denham is being talked about. Denham is also a former Congressman. Both lost re-election in 2018. This effort makes it clear that David Hadley, the current Vice-Chairman of the CAGOP has been unable to get off the ground for his Chairman’s Campaign.
Why were/are Mimi Walters and Jeff Denham being promoted as replacements for Hadley? Luis Buhler and Kevin McCarthy. Why not endorse Andy Vidak?
I was forwarded a “Draft Mimi Walters” email that had very familiar verbiage and sentence construction. I have a 95% level of confidence it was Luis Buhler. Buhler is a liberal Republican overlord. He was the top adviser to GOP Billionaire Donor Charles Munger. Buhler has few real friends within the CAGOP structure as most people simply tolerate him and loathe the power he gained due to Mr. Munger’s largess. This is the conclusion I have drawn from conversations with multiple people of all ideological stripes on condition of confidentiality.
Buhler and McCarthy are also reputed to be close. Top establishment GOP operatives like Jessica Patterson and David Stafford Reade are also close to both Buhler and McCarthy. There is nothing wrong with that and I am not alleging wrongdoing. What I am saying is that the operatives are used to earning some money doing the bidding of “GOP Leadership” at every convention and were set to do so working for David Hadley. Now they need a new client, and apparently, Andy Vidak ain’t it.
Buhler needs to retrench now that liberal Republican hero Catherine Baker has been unseated (I guess being a Northeastern style liberal Republican did not help, did it?) and Mr. Munger is withdrawing to other ventures. Cross-sect that with Kevin McCarthy who would have been Speaker of the House had the electoral drubbing of the House GOP Caucus not occurred in 2018. McCarthy is trying to control his surroundings and Buhler needs a new nexus of influence.
With Buhler writing Draft “Congressman X” emails, the dots are connected.
Also consider that my guy, Travis Allen will never be supported by Kevin McCarthy, Luis Buhler or their operatives. (Despite Mr. Allen having received a check or two from Mr. Munger)
Also consider that Kevin McCarthy despises Andy Vidak. Vidak endorsed a DA Candidate in Kern County that was running against the McCarthy Machine. It had also been put to me for several years that Vidak did not get along will with McCarthy’s crew in that area. McCarthy is alleged to have interfered with efforts to try and help save Vidak from the 2018 onslaught that unseated him.
Connie Conway? Team McCarthy has wanted to burn her house down for years. Worse, she is from Tulare County, which may as well be Mars in their eyes.
Now you get why Buhler and McCarthy have been attempting to “Draft Congressman X”. McCarthy is even alleged to have interfered and torpedoed efforts by high-profile wealthy Republicans to run for US Senate and/or Governor for fear he would be overshadowed by them. John Cox was not within that orbit and eventually McCarthy threw in because Cox making the runoff was thought to have been a boost for vulnerable Congressional Delegation Members.
Further, so you understand the stakes – when Buhler was at the zenith of his influence and the entire GOP Caucus was afraid of Munger dropping a gigantic independent expenditure against them (Remember, he spent $2MM attacking Rico Oller and $3MM attacking Prop 8 Author Andy Pugno at the behest of Buhler) – Buhler took aggressive action against several conservatives.
Buhler made it clear that merely talking to Jon Fleischman, Mike Schroeder and others would put you on the outs. Buhler is also alleged to have threatened people related to your intrepid blogger even going so far as to demand people disown me or else face retaliation. It is this web of control that should give everyone pause regardless of weather you like my guy Travis Allen or not.
Andy Vidak should have been a lights-out choice for the establishment, but they are trying to find another candidate with David Hadley being mortally wounded politically by the entry of Andy Vidak in to the Chairman’s Race.
In a world that has most rational GOP Activists looking for answers as to why we got slaughtered at the ballot box in 2018 – read this post through as many times as necessary. Then ask yourself why any sane people would be trying to control the results of upcoming CAGOP officer elections. Ask yourself who has been in control the last 10 years or longer within the CAGOP? Then ask yourself what results have they gotten? How have they behaved? Why do they deserve to stay in charge of the CAGOP?
My blog has gotten nearly 2.2 Million hits in 2018, that has been my protection from people like Luis Buhler. Your protection from people like him is to reject the backroom deals and the candidates churned out by the shrinking oligarchy of Controlled Failure that has been the CAGOP for years.
Travis Allen for CAGOP Chairman, break the chains of control. No more Controlled Failure.
Dec 062017
 

When there are big, public and messy fights in politics – I always ask who has what at stake and how big are the egos. I learned to my horror that Chad Mayes may have no equal in the ego department, at least in the sad shrinking GOP world in California.

While Assemblymembers (like Jay Obernolte and Kevin Kiley) are trying to raise money and recruit opponents to democrats, we have the underlying issue of a class of Republicans who refuse to get it.

Joe Justin is Chad Mayes Chief of Staff. He is a fantastic political operative and consultant. For as good as he is with campaigns, he is horrific with policy.

Joe is seen here posting a Mercury news article highlighting how the GOP punted before the last recess of the session as some sort of sign that his Narcissistic boss was going to live another day. The comment about keyboard cowboys is actually hysterical and sad at the same time when you pick it apart.

On one hand, he is correct about the hundreds of so-called activists that can’t get off Facebook long enough to get anything done. On the other hand, he is showing elitist contempt for the rank and file. Only someone down in the trenches should cast dispersion like this, not someone with $130K+ in salary and benefits off of the back of the taxpayers.

Again, this shows the complete disconnect. If those keyboard cowboys did not matter, Chad Mayes would still be Assembly Minority Leader and no one would know about his narcissistic rage at the end of his reign or his affair with Kristen Olsen.

The aforementioned Seren Taylor, the “policy” mastermind behind the Cap and Trade deal was indeed sacked by Chad Mayes’ replacement. Mr. Taylor landed in the office of, Chad Mayes. This is yet another indicator that being right and making sure the masses respect one’s authoritah has superseded any and all “polling data”. Seren Taylor should have been returned to New York as a result of the toxic damage he did to the GOP.

Speaking of polling data – your intrepid blogger finally got to see some of the fabled poll.

Of course it showed President Trump underwater everywhere in California. I laughed out loud as I recalled he was at 40% when he beat the most well-financed Presidential Campaign in history, the FBI, the NSA, the CIA, the Obama Admin, the UN, the media and everyone else arrayed to try and thwart the people labeled Keyboard Cowboys.

Apparently, enough people got from out in front of their computers to get the word out while Justin, Mayes and others were voting for / supporting / aiding and abetting Clinton.

What the poll did not prove was the connection between the lousy numbers for Republicans in general (not just President Trump) in California and selling out on the environment being the cure. Rather, what I saw was that in California, Republicans had nothing to offer and that is why their numbers were horrific. It is the exact opposite of the Bush-Romney-Moderate take your opponent’s issues away from them strategy… people really want something new.

Something new, like solutions, versus identity politics directed at one’s opponents. But, what we get is a daily lambasting from people whose egos will never recover from their own irrelevance being exposed by the 2016 election results.

IN the second set of tweets, it is clear that the Keyboard Cowboys were indeed a primary consideration in Chad Mayes’ Narcissistic Rage on the way out the door. Mr. Mayes needed to demonstrate he was still in charge. In so doing he proved their relevance.

Party be dammed, polling be dammed, Cap and Trade was about Chad Mayes. It is my belief that without the little people – the Keyboard Cowboys – that most all of the GOP Caucus would have been led over the cliff by Mayes. This is the toxic effect of group think based on a false premise.

20 years ago, I went to a campaign school run by Morton Blackwell. The first thing in it and every seminar like it since that I have been to is winning elections by contrasting yourself from your opponents. This has been the fight I have seen within the ranks of the GOP since I first became a delegate.

Nowadays, with the Moderates having been spent in to power by big money they’ve had it mostly their own way and the results have hastened the demise of Republican Registration numbers as people feel no affinity for a lukewarm GOP. Moderats want similarity to Democrats and Conservatives want Contrast.

Opposing the moderate paradigm means you are a White Nationalist. In some cases, it draws people in with 38 year old accusations that moderate Republican leaders take as gospel for political (see also control) reasons. Opposing this means people like Jeff Flake giving money to your democrat opponent,

In my life as an activist and campaign operative, I have heard an array of policy lies:

I was told Abortion was a loser, so there that went. (Today a majority of Americans identify as Pro-Life)

I was told family values was a loser and with the hypocrite parade in that field, there that went.

I was told we needed to soften sovereignty and immigration, some in GOP ranks squawked against it and were beaten down with Prop 187 and the “White Nationalist” label. ( Sanctuary Cities are opposed to the tune of 65% in most polls, bare majorities support the wall, numbers approaching 70% support stricter enforcement)

I was told we needed to “negotiate deals for a better future”. (see also bigger government, depending on how poll questions are asked, you can get some pretty large opposition to big government)

Now we are being told that we need to put a Republican label on the largest tax increase in California History. (Unless you disagree that “fees” are taxes, and then it is the largest fee increase and second largest tax increase in state history)

There is no plank in the GOP platform that the big money and folks like Joe Justin / Seren Taylor have not overturned.

There is no poll in the world, that if done honestly shows that massive tax increases and government increases in the name of anything will be popular. That is just absurd. There is also no poll that will ever give honest numbers about President Trump or real numbers about racism, immigration or the environment. All have been stigmatized and people are too intimidated to tell the pollster the truth. We all saw it with the public polls that predicted Hilary with 332 Electoral Votes.

Which gets me to my conclusion. I knew in Feb of 2016 that President Trump would be the GOP nominee. I could see in people’s eyes when I was at their doors and on the phone that Trump was going to win the Nevada Caucuses running away.

After the RNC Convention that Chad Mayes, Joe Justin and others criticized and lambasted, I also knew that then Candidate Trump was going to be all the Democrats could handle.

What Mayes, Justin, Kevin Spillaine, several Capitol Staffers and #nevertrump anonymous did not like was the uncontrollable nature of our now President (they made other excuses too). Seeing him decimate all the normal conventions of politics, such as a challenge to racism and immigration and the like was an extreme attack against the years of pent up pseudo relevance that they had.

I will be honest, I did not like President Trump either. But, having had a background in working in the real world, I understood what forging a deep emotional connection with potential insurance customers was all about. I saw President Trump doing that with voters and decided to pitch in and be part of the team while a lot around me did not.

Cap and Trade does not make a deep emotional connection with voters. It is not an issue that builds a movement. In fact, I’ve seen the moderate crew in the GOP try to re-package Gay Marriage, Abortion, Bonds, Budget sellouts and the like for years.

No one cares. They want change from the status quo. No amount of calling opponents to Republican Lite “White Nationalists” will change that.

It was when I started hearing President Trump’s message and seeing the reactions of real people to it that I started digging deep in to polls long enough to draw the conclusion in August that he was going to win. I had a dozen bets to prove it as well, as I put my money where my analysis of polling was. Until people like Seren Taylor and Joe Justin can put aside their personal (liberal) biases to see what connects, there is no polling data they could ever analyze correctly. I had to drop my own conservative filter as it pertained to President Trump.

In 2016, Joe Heck in Nevada ran away from Trump and lost. While the cause of Kelly Ayotte losing in NH may have been same day registration fraud, she was still susceptible to being beaten due to her public disdain for the now President. Rob Portman, Pat Toomey and others that held the President at Arm’s length and never disavowed him won. It is this sort of nuance that is missing from team Mayes analysis of political situations.

Brian Dahle is the new Sheriff. Can he turn this around? Can the CAGOP figure out a message that connects with voters on a deep, emotional level? Or, will we keep having the needless fights about how liberal we need to be? Unless the CAGOP can get honest and deliver something real that connects with people, they will slide in to oblivion.

Nov 022017
 

Some months ago, I was told of Chad Mayes saying, “Man I am so tired, I was at Bruno Mars last night…”

I suppose Chad Mayes is having a spectacular Mid-Life Crisis (google Narcissistic Rage for a clinical explanation). It has all the makings, an affair, fits of rage, a search for relevance and hearkening back to High School antics.

Now – you can join his Mid Life Crisis with the queen of Trump hate herself – Katy Perry. Nothing in politics happens by accident. Given that his staff, consultants and enablers are using social media on an almost daily basis to assert their authoritah over the rank-and-file Trump-supporting Republican base to remind them how wrong they are, you can draw no other conclusion that is a nexus for this event.

I am sure several of Chad Mayes’ enablers – see also donors, lobbyists, etc. will be there checks in hand to remind Chad of how right he was and how mean all those little people were for revolting.

If this is not enough – try this on for size. It is rumored and widely known in Sacramento that Anthony Rendon, the democrat Majority Leader (aka speaker) of the Assembly has given an order:

No credible democrat is to run against the Cap and Trade Republicans. If this is true, this is a serious boost to Marc Steinorth. It would also explain why Catherine Baker and Jordan Cunningham appear to have drawn no dem opposition. Since Rocky Chavez, Heath Flora, Devon Mathis and Chad Mayes are all in “safe” districts, a dem filing may not matter unless there are enough angry Republicans to vote for the real thing versus any of them. (Note: Devon Mathis will lose his primary to the Mayor of Viaslia, that is a prediction that we are solidifying and repeating)

With alleged polling showing every last one of these folks vulnerable to the right challenger in their area, it stands to reason why they would pledge allegiance to Rendon. It also informs us as to why Rendon has issued this edict (if indeed my two former dem legislators and one high-ranking union rep source are correct).

Then add the rumor I dropped last week about uncle moonbeam running a $5MM independent expenditure in support of the #capandtraitors and you have the full picture.

If you are part of the Cap and Trade Crew – you, too can join Chad Mayes to see Katy Perry to get away from Donald Trump, Republican Grassroots and bask in the glow of the burgeoning ecotopia known as California.

I will repeat my analogy that having Chad Mayes in Republican Leadership is like inviting Michael Jackson to your son’s slumber party. Someone is going to get violated repeatedly and given the pattern of Mr. Mayes (see also Narcissistic Rage) this pattern will continue until Gary Jeandron or Andrew Kotyuk dispatches him at the ballot box. Brian Dahle should remove him with extreme prejudice immediately and let the rest of us clean up the mess.

Oct 272017
 

The Chad Mayes rampage will have far-reaching effects for the GOP. He has been blathering to every media outlet that will listen about “New Republicans”, “New Approaches” and the other 20+ year old buzzwords often used by the platform destroyers. These public comments are de-stabilizing the already fractured and fear-riddled GOP Caucus. Chad Mayes is a bully and knows that he can get away with this sort of activity as the Assembly GOP Caucus refused to vacate the chair, preferring instead to allow Chad another two weeks as leader so he had an opportunity to retaliate even further against political foes.

Lost in all of this was Chad Mayes allowing three potentially vulnerable democrats – Jacqui Irwin (AD44), Sabrina Cervantes (AD60) and Sharon Quirk Silva (AD65) to get a free pass to duck or oppose his precious Cap and Trade bill. For this alone, Mayes should have been run out of leadership.

For reasons that elude me, Brian Dahle made Chad Mayes the Assistant leader. If this was the price for the votes that Chad Mayes still had loyal to him, perhaps Dahle should have supported Vince Fong. Having Chad Mayes on your leadership team is like inviting Michael Jackson to your son’s slumber party. Someone is going to get violated, repeatedly.

Assemblymember Devon Mathis (AD26), Marc Steinorth (AD40) and Chad Mayes (AD42) are all in serious trouble. AD26 and AD42 are considered “safe” Republican seats, but scandal and the right brand of BS from a democrat candidate could flip those seats as well.

I’ve been known to analyze political races in the past. I’ve been made aware that there are all kinds of polls running around in various areas. As a point of reference, I took several bets on Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. I had predicted that Trump would win with 300+ Electoral Votes back in August of 2016 – many know this fact.

It is my opinion that if the election were held today, a generic Republican candidate would primary defeat Devon Mathis. IF Marc Steinorth and Chad Mayes draw opponents with enough funding to get the message out, they will lose their primaries as well. Let me unpack this:

Devon Mathis’ opponent, the Mayor of Visalia, is scooping up endorsements once held by Mr. Mathis. Warren Gubler is going to unseat Devon Mathis. In 2012, an equally unpopular and unknown in her district incumbent, Beth Gaines had a serious primary opponent in Andy Pugno. Republican leadership called in $2MM in resources to save Gaines, including $1MM by former GOP Megadonor Charles Munger. Will Brian Dahle and crew do the same, pulling resources away from the targeted districts they need to get back to 27 Assemblymembers in order to save a leadership vote?

The thought process was that Andy Pugno needed to be stopped because they could not allow the precedent of an incumbent getting primaried. In the process, 4 other GOP Assemblymembers lost their seats due in no small part to the lack of resources and the GOP went under 27 (see also superminority) in 2013.

Devon Mathis’ campaign has basically legitimized the sexual assault allegations against him with the way they have botched the crisis communication. Mathis would have been in severe trouble even before that as I don’t need to see polling to know that Cap and Trade will take any Republican sell-out down 20%.

Chad Mayes, his chief of staff Joe Justin and others that were touting a poll showing Cap and Trade as a winner are about to get their comeuppance. Many are bragging about a $5MM or more independent expenditure coming in to save the Assembly GOP #capandtraitors led by none other than Governor Jerry Brown. The likelihood of that is about as accurate as this fabled poll. Why save Republican sell outs when they can be replaced with democrats? Why are Seren Taylor and Mr. Richardson still in place in the Assembly Caucus staff as it was their advice that these folks acted on with regard to supporting Cap and Trade?

These same folks are tweeting incessantly and using social media to attack President Trump and the Conservative Base of the GOP. They are so intransigent that they are indeed willing to drive the GOP down to 10-15 seats in the assembly just so that they don’t have to acknowledge that they may have been wrong on this issue and their handling of it.

This is why Chad Mayes is going to be a difficult target. His narcissism and need to be right are so deep that trying to kill him politically will be like trying to Kill Jason in Friday the 13th Part 1,247. Chad Mayes, once to political cream is applied to him will flare up again as a democrat in later elections, bank on it. He is still protesting his rightness to everyone who will listen.

Chad Mayes and Marc Steinorth have the two worst problems you can have as a Republican on the ballot, a sex scandal and a massive tax increase bill.

While the liberals within the GOP point to the “Bathroom Bill” in North Carolina as the reason Pat McCrory lost, real analysis shows that the 5% difference between McCrory and PRESIDENT Trump in North Carolina was due in part to blank Republican ballots over the massive tax increase McCrory presided over. If you don’t believe me, then switch your focus to Nevada. The GOP got slaughtered in Nevada because of GOP voter apathy over a GOP-led $2B tax increase in that state, the results were irrefutable. Cap and Trade could be 100 times that. (Note that word PRESIDENT is capitalized as a reminder to the readers that Mr. Trump is indeed the President of the United States)

But, Chad Mayes is right, just look at his social media (likely being maintained by Joe Justin) for the repeated lectures about his rightness.

Marc Steinorth is going to get defeated in 2018 as well. Unlike Mayes who is reputed to have never worn his wedding ring in Sacramento, never had a photo of his wife in his office, whose preferred partner was 41 years of age – Steinorth’s preferred partner is in her 20’s. She was also promoted once said affair is alleged to have begun. Ouch.

Take the -20 from Cap and Trade, and add -20 for the appearance of having an affair with a woman who could be your daughter and it is catastrophic.

While I personally salute Mr. Steinorth for having the temerity to call me regarding the reasons why he made that vote, all the fight and ability to face critics in the world will not save him from the wrath of the voters. As an aside, I heard mostly positive reports related to Steinorth in the capitol, until the pressure came to bear post cap and trade.

All the money that Chad Mayes is lauded for raising (which we now know is the 30 pieces of silver in return for the deals he is making) won’t save Mayes either. The only reason why Chad Mayes will run for re-election is that he is on a rampage to prove he is right. Once Mayes loses, he will leave the GOP and blame us all for his widespread trail of destruction.

Steinorth? Perhaps he retires and calls it good. Perhaps Republican leadership needs to run a poll in AD40 to learn the truth, I am going to bet if they use a polling firm (like say, Val Smith) that is not trying to rig a result (like saying Cap and Trade is a good thing), they will find out that Steinorth is underwater badly. My supposition is that Steinorth is 2-1 Unfav-Fav and his re-elect is in the 30’s. There is no way those numbers improve once the voters know about his top two negatives.

Mathis? Everyone knows he is dead on his feet – when will Republican Leadership break the news to him that he needs to pack it in? Again, run a poll. Amongst the small number that know him, he is likely 3 or 4-1 underwater. There is no way an informed universe is any better for Mathis.

Mayes? Everyone claims to know about polls that show Mayes is toast in an informed universe.

Will the Assembly GOP leadership be able to swallow the pill and cut bait? What happens if Heath Flora and Rocky Chavez draw opponents? I’d lay odds both of them are in similar trouble.

Perhaps we do need to drop to 21 seats or less in order for a lesson to be learned? Perhaps the lesson never will be learned. 20 years in this business has taught me to expect the worst and hope for the best.