There are these things called daily reports. If you track them, you can watch the flow of the money. They are also an indicator of strength or weakness in a candidate.
Kevin Kiley has made several tactical errors in his campaign.
Sending out an email attacking the Roseville Chamber of Commerce PAC resulted in a $4700 Check to Brian Dahle.
Going to said PAC meeting, when the board of directors was inclined to endorse and then losing said endorsement on a 9-0 vote is another error.
Attacking the “Secret DMV Office” which is actually a constituent services office to try and gain brownie points is another. Said evil secret office is used by all 120 members of the legislature to get problems solved for people in their districts. It is clear that Kiley has never done that for the people in AD06. Why am I not surprised.
Side Note: When I helped get Brian Dahle elected to the Assembly in the first place, Kevin Kiley was still in Law School.
Picking a fight in an assembly committee in order to try and play victim after getting the expected outcome is still another. While it may look cool to a small number of voters to be stuck in the Beth Gaines office (along with attacking the DMV’s Constituent Services Office) – the reality to donors is that Kiley now looks like a eunuch.
Another strategic blunder has been the reputed pattern of Kiley letting people know he is annoyed with them when they don’t take the desired course of action.
Just Yesterday, $275,000 arrived in to an independent expenditure committee. The money came from another pac that is funded by the Prison Guards Union, The Realtors Union, the Independent Oil and Gas Producers Union, the Sempra Energy Union and the Chevron Union. I mean EVERYONE that donates to Brian Dahle is a union, right?
Yet another strategic blunder is telling people “I am the only True Republican in the race”. There are two problems with this statement, one is Brian Dahle’s record (A ratings from Conservative groups) and the second is Kiley’s personal history of dodging the Gay Rights and immigration issues (and endorsements in tough races).
Another blunder is embellishing his resume. This is so common among candidates, that it is all the way down the list of maladies. In Kiley’s case, he has almost nothing for a resume so it is an issue.
Your Intrepid Blogger decided to total up Publicly Reported contributions since Kiley’s humiliating 2nd place finish in March. (It was made humiliating by two more blunders from the young man, one was celebrating 28% of the vote and the other was claiming victory before the election was certified.) Brian Dahle is very close to $150,000 reported and Kiley is very close to $50,000 reported. Ouch.
It is a double ouch when you add in that Kevin Kiley is reputed to be in debt from the primary. It was clear that Kiley was playing for a first round knockout. Due to the extent of Mr. Kiley’s debt, it is likely that money he raised will net him little or anything in the General Election.
Perhaps this is why Mr. Kiley’s communications have been getting progressively more shrill in the last couple of weeks?
Several people close to Kiley told him to stay put in the Assembly. This attempt to better position himself for a run for Congress may prove to be a fatal blunder, as there are some people your intrepid blogger have talked to looking for a primary opponent for Kevin Kiley in 2020 should he lose in a month and have to run for re-election to AD06.
Kiley is one of the more talented members of the legislature, but he is allowed his ego and conniving to override any promise he has once shown. A recent post from California Political Review put it in to perspective:
It looks like almost every member of the Assembly and State Senate Caucus gave the California Republican Party a donation recently—most in the $1,000 category—but Assemblyman Frank Bigelow gave over $100,000, Chad Mayes gave over $40,000, Marie Waldron $60,000—Brian Dahle gave over $100,000—the Dahle opponent in the June run off for State Senate gave $0—Kevin Kiley.
This is the biggest blunder of all. Kiley decimated whatever goodwill he had by refusing to be a team player, cementing the all-for-himself perception some had of him. After the 2018 Primary when it was clear Ted Gaines was going to the Board of Equalization – Kiley gave no one a thing, instead hoarding his money for his State Senate Campaign. While some Republican members of the legislature are rewarding Kiley’s behavior, most are not. Still others (such as those evil third house donors) are responding in kind by unloading a bank vault against him.
This is not a crowded 2016 primary where Kiley had a million dollars from Bay Area liberals and tons of time to knock on doors. This is 2019 where the spotlight is squarely on him and Kiley is not weathering it well…
To be Continued…