I wrote previously that Dave Gilliard is a talented consultant that has some predicable patterns. He is managing Kevin Kiley’s doomed race for State Senate. Please note, I have helped Mr. Gilliard directly and indirectly in past campaigns so I know of which I speak. Sheriff Chad Bianco of Riverside County is a Gilliard Client for example.
I have seen several actions over the years by Mr. Gilliard that give me pause.
I watched in 2012 when Peter Tateishi was running against Barbara Ortega in the AD08 Primary when Gilliard sent mailers attacking Tateishi that were black and white making Tateishi out to look like Emporer Hirohito.
Later in Doug LaMalfa’s first Congressional Campaign, his now chief of staff Mark Spannagel was caught violating campaign finance law creating a website to attack the late Sam Aanestad. Dave Gilliard’s name was all over the machinations. (see a second article about it here)
In a subsequent election, Dave Gilliard was involved in a primary challenge campaign against a then Assemblymember Dan Logue – in order to bleed money out of Logue for an anticipated Logue Vs Nielsen State Senate race (sound familiar?). The Tehama GOP (firmly in the grasp of people in the influence of Gilliard) got burned for campaign finance violations similar to the California Republican Leadership Fund. (A second article can be found here.) Jim Nielsen was fined $23,000 as a result of this caper. Dave Gilliard is also his consultant.
When I say patterns, I have observed that Dave Gilliard when running a campaign has to be first out of the gate with a piece of mail. Sometimes, he will send that mailer 6 weeks before absentee ballots drop. Another predictable pattern is that when he knows his candidate is losing, he scorches the earth – almost as if to say If I can’t have it I am going to wreck it all on my way out the door.
Kevin Kiley admits to being a net $128k in the hole as of his latest report. $191k in debt – 63K in cash on hand = -128K. This means that Mr. Gilliard is in “on tilt” mode.
Having seen Gilliard’s clients get conveniently timed independent expenditures from organizations such as the Nomlaki Band of Pashkenta Indians, I know 100% Gilliard lives in grey areas. (Patterns again folks) I also know from insider conversations that Kevin Kiley tried every which way to try and attract independent expenditures on his behalf, as did Gilliard. How this does not violate coordination laws is beyond me, but it happened. Kiley is reputed to have yelled at and aggressively berated more than one insider that did not kiss his ring.
The set up is all there for Dave Gilliard to pull an 11th hour trick.
My gut tells me Dahle is leading Kiley but a lot of voters are up for grabs. It is clear that Mr. Gilliard knows more than I do with this regard.
I do not think Gilliard was anticipating the local media coverage of this trick. Until proven otherwise, and based on my years of watching patterns I am assuming the Northern California State Voter Project letter was done at the behest of Dave Gilliard. BTW – Gilliard has had his office raided by state authorities before – in the Bill Postmus scandal years ago.
Just four years ago, Gilliard sent mailers out on behalf of his client Senator Jeff Stone against Bonnie Garcia that looked both racist and sexist. Again, this mailer was done in the waning weeks of the campaign.
As of the writing of this blog – the mailer referenced by Fox 40 (see here), the local ABCBS affiliate (see here) and the NBCBS affiliate (see here) have featured people in Fair Oaks, El Dorado Hills and Rocklin (all are in AD06, Kiley’s district). As of the writing of this blog, not one person from OUTSIDE the AD-06 portion of Senate District one has received the mailer.
As of the writing of this blog – vote turnout in Assembly District 6 is trailing every other part of the district as a percentage. This means then that this mailer was designed to push Republicans to the polls in Assembly District 6 where Kiley has a decided advantage.
Given the history of late-in-race scorched-earth tactics I have seen, this is consistent with Dave Gilliard’s pattern, Given Kiley’s pattern of being willing to say or do anything to “win”, it is also possible this mailer was done with his full knowledge as well.
I am not sure if the news coverage will make it more or less effective. I am also not sure how much impact this has on the race. I will likely file an FPPC Complaint about it if some of these other people have not. I think Dave Gilliard has some explaining to do beyond a simple denial.
Kevin Kiley? He is admitting to being $128,000 net in the hole. It is likely that he is more than double that in debt as it is common to hide campaign debt in a variety of ways. (The most common is vendors providing services and dragging their heels on sending invoices for said services) Remember, Beth Gaines, another Dave Gilliard client in the past had a reputed $100,000 in “off the books” campaign debt for years. (This sort of behavior is not unique to Gilliard’s crew)
How does Kiley get re-elected in 2020 to AD-06? He is going to be extremely vulnerable, and is going to have far fewer friends to call on as well.