Apr 282020
 

From a political satire piece that has way too much basis in reality:

The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its terror alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France’s white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country’s military capability.

Marie Waldron wrote a piece in the local patch, apparently at the same time as I was roasting her for her love of get out of jail free cards for felons.

Governor Newsom recently created the California Task Force on Business and Jobs Recovery to get the economy growing again as quickly and safely as possible. As Assembly Minority Leader and a small business owner, I was honored to be selected as a member of this critical team.

In between her tweets about “Criminal Justice Reform” – Ms. Waldron tweeted about how honored she was to be a part of Gavin Newsom’s wreck the economy the rest of the way team. It features Tom Steyer as the chairman – which is like asking Jack the Ripper to babysit.

Let me offer the feckless Permanent Minority Leader a suggestion. Leadership means coming up with your own plan to re-open California and demonstrating to the democrats there is a better way. It appears that re framing the message is not just a consultant-driven pipe dream, it is a suicide pact that the entire crew bought in to (save a few exceptions). Waldron’s recent social media efforts indicate that she is attempting to take democrat issues and remake them in some sort of Republican image.

I’ve seen 22 years of failure from party leaders and it appears our current batch have not learned a thing. Rather, they are doubling down on the become democrats to appeal to democrats approach:

While health and safety will come first, the 80-member Task Force will work toward quickly re-opening California’s economy. To accomplish this, the Governor has tapped a broad and experienced group that covers all geographic, business and non-profit sectors. Prominent leaders in business, labor, healthcare, academia and philanthropy are included. The task force Chair is Tom Steyer and includes ex-officio members of former governors Wilson, Davis, Schwarzenegger and Brown, other government officials, and prominent business leaders such as Apple CEO Tim Cook and Disney Executive Chairman Bob Iger. For the complete list, please visit: https://bit.ly/2xPyvEl

The Task Force will develop solutions that reflect the diverse communities that make up California. The recovery must be inclusive so every community, including rural and underserved areas, shares fully in the benefits. Our process will be robust, and we’ll be seeking insightful and practical solutions. Recommendations for reopening will be based on the Governor’s six criteria, available here: https://bit.ly/2S1B5hu

Do laypeople reading this piece by Marie Waldron know what an Ex-Officio Member of a Committee is?

You will also notice the poll-tested pander to diversity and inclusive language that is interspersed with mentions of prominent liberals. I can hardly wait to see our Republican leaders posing for pictures with a man (Tom Steyer) who has spent millions trying to run them (as in Republicans) out of office. Talk about Stockholm Syndrome!

The Coronavirus situation was a GOLDEN opportunity for Republican Leaders to distinguish themselves. Instead we get French Terror level Collaborate.

We held our first meeting last Wednesday. We will divide into 10 sub committees, including small business, technology, work-force and financial, and I am currently reviewing potential committee assignments.

Doesn’t that make you feel AWESOME! She is reviewing potential committee assignments. You can’t work. Your neighbors are getting arrested for going to the beach. You’re getting called a racist, nutjob, and are being physically assaulted over your political beliefs and your party leaders are reviewing potential committee assignments while the State of California has ground to a halt.

No solutions. Just committee assignments, liberal policy positions and loving on Tom Steyer and Gavin Newsom.

Apr 282020
 

Republican State Representative Darren Bailey from downstate Xenia filed a lawsuit last week challenging the governor’s authority to issue a stay-at-home order.

In a statement last week, Bailey said: “Enough is enough. I filed this lawsuit on behalf of myself and my constituents who are ready to go back to work and resume a normal life.”

Gov. Pritzker called out Bailey after a Clay County judge issued a restraining order against the governor’s stay at-home order, which has shut down businesses and caused economic hardships across the state. The judge’s temporary restraining order only covers the lawmaker individually.

The article is horribly biased and gave the governor of Illinois a ton of ink, along with taking cheap shots at President Trump. But, at least this legislator had the courage to sue JB Pritzker who has handled the crisis poorly and now has his hand stuck out for a bailout.

The legislator beat governor Pritzker in Court.

You’d think a lawsuit against Governor Newsom violating federal law giving out $75MM to illegal aliens would have drawn a sponsor? Nope. We’ve got to re-frame the message. Two Republican Assembly nominees stepped up.

You’d think a dictate telling people they can not protest at the capitol would cause a Republican legislator to stand up against it? Nope. You’d think the deliberately broken State background check system that denies eligible people Ammo purchases would draw a Republican legislator to be a plaintiff? Nope.

I guess the 1st, 14th and 2nd Amendments are subordinated to re-framing the message.

A gun shop owner (Ron Givens) and a Candidate for Congress Chris Bish whose district includes the Capitol did the heavy lifting in Givens vs Newsom.

Reading between the lines of conversations with insiders tells me that the Republican Legislators have been instructed by their consultants to stay away from anything remotely Trump. It is their opinion that these lawsuits against the State of California, Gavin Newsom, et. al. are all about Trump. More myopia from our “party leaders”. In my opinion this is a lame excuse for cowardice. 

So to those of you getting party communications asking for money – go give your money directly to Republican Candidates. Make sure you do research on the candidates to make sure they are not a Deanna Lorraine or a Joe Collins charlatan. Make sure you do the research to determine which candidates will actually sue a rogue governor or who won’t drink the Kool-Aid and put things like Prop 13 (the 2020 version) on the Ballot. Do not give to a PAC, ever (unless you are confident in the people running it). Look for the disclaimers on the emails to see who is asking for your money.

Our leadership in the California Republican Party and California Republican Legislative Caucuses may well be broken beyond repair. Yesterday, I lit up CAGOP Chair Jessica Patterson for failing to defend Mike Garcia and not calling out Christy Smith for her callous and absurd attack on his military service. The best she could do was this:

Leave it to my friend Allen J Wilson to explain to Madam Chairman how to respond

In the past, I lit up Marie Waldron the Assembly Permanent Minority Leader for supporting Get Out of Jail Free Cards for Prison Inmates. (see also re-framing the message)  Here she is again pretty much agreeing with Gavin Newsom’s mass release of prisoners. Also note her twitter account is full of supportive comments towards the governor and is offering nothing as an alternative to the one-party (now one-man) rule in the State of California. None of the Republican Leadership in the legislature are speaking out about the onerous “shelter at home” orders, the arrests of protesters, sting operations on business owners trying to pay their bills and the grotesque abuses of constitutional rights.

Free “our brothers and sisters” that are in jail – Marie Waldron

Remember, this is the same Marie Waldron that ran interference for both William “Bill” Brough and Tyler Diep. Both lost their primaries in clouds of scandal – including multiple credible issues related to sexual misconduct by Brough.

Instead, what I am treated to are insiders mocking the efforts of those suing the state for the abuse. I am becoming convinced that the impending destruction of the California Republican Party (beyond what has happened) is willful and deliberate.

We want to go back to work. The insiders mock our efforts.

We want honest leadership. The insiders try to defend incumbents at all costs.

We want criminals locked up. The insiders negotiate criminal punishment away.

We want to protest. The insiders mock our efforts.

We want clear values. The insiders “Re-frame the Message”

We want strong leadership. Instead what we got are leaders that refuse to call out the bad guys.

We love our President (96% National approval rating in the GOP). The insiders are convinced all their electoral troubles are his fault.

I am proud of my spot on the leadership blacklist. Someone has to call these people out. In addition to future posts detailing the disaster that is a volunteer training program, I am also going to offer solutions that someone serious about replacing Jessica Patterson should look at.

Apr 132020
 

Federal Elections are pretty much islands unto themselves. While the CAGOP has a Federal Election account, the money there is typically used for Party Support operations and member communications. Thus, you typically don’t see stunts like putting $150K in to a D+20 District for a 4th place finisher.

There is actually some very good news coming out of these:

Despite having a well-funded challenger, Tom McClintock looks poised for a 58-60% margin in the fall. In CA-01 Doug LaMalfa’s opponent has more money but the result looks about the same. I am not a fan of either congressman, but voting for someone that will Rubber-Stamp #INPEACH and Nancy Pelosi is so objectionable that I’d vote for pretty much any Republican. Get a viable Republican challenge to either of these guys, then we can talk.

This is CA-10. #CA10 Josh Harder did not do well. When you add the dems together, it is basically a tie with the lesser known Republican Challenger Ted Howze. Note that the political bosses in the area ramroded an endorsement of the 5th Place Finisher and it remains to be seen if they will help Harder out of spite. CA-10 was down the list and suddenly became a top-tier race due to this result.

This is CA-21. #CA21 The Scandal-Riddled TJ Cox managed to catch lightening in a bottle when the rage-spending of Bloomberg and Steyer put thousands of operative on the ground harvesting ballots. Also note the presence of the “De La Fuente” people – they are a pair of nutbags that are serial candidates. They decided to muck up this race, good riddance.

Cox has a problem as the total Dem vote is 47.9%. Ouch. This is your #1 Race in California. David Valadao is a former Congressman and is an aggressive campaigner.

I am holding off on writing about #CA25 as there is a special election on May 14th that will be considered a harbinger of the fall.

This is CA-39. #CA39 This is another seat that was harvested out of Republican Hands in the 2018 Bloomberg-Steyer Rampage. This is going to be competitive for sure as Gil “Lotto Boy” Cisneros either was lazy or did not spend enough of his lottery winnings on trying to shore up his support.

This is CA-48. #CA48. This is the second most likely seat to return to the GOP after CA-21. The question will be to see if Michelle Steel has the killer instinct to bring this home. The former GOP Congressman had been in office for a lifetime and was taken down by bogus Russia-did-it charges. This District is also nominally Republican in registration so there is that.

Harley Rouda is a back-bencher rubber stamp with nothing significant to campaign on.

There are a couple of other seats worth mentioning:

CA-45 Greg Raths vs Katie Porter. I think people are writing this one off prematurely. I am aware that the NRCC is attempting to impose their will on that race why would they care if that race is out of reach?

CA-03 Tamika Hamilton vs John Garamendi. A lot has to go right, but in a wave election you could see the 75 year old fossil have some problems.

CA-07 Buzz Patterson vs the Fraud Doctor Ami Bera. Again, a lot has to go right.

CA-09 Tony Amador vs Jerry McDonkey. This might be a reach, given that Amador has rung four times before and never had a pot to piss in money-wise.

CA-49 Bryan Maryott vs Mike Levin. Similar to CA-03, A lot has to go right. With Bill Brough losing, the world down there has been turned on its’ ear.

In the case of the above five races, it is all about money. Can any of the R challengers raise any? (or will they even try?)

I left out CA-08 and CA-50 because they are Safe R seats and they will transition just fine. Anyone that thinks Devin Nunes is going to lose in CA-23 is smoking crack.

This is good news considering what a wasteland California is, however, if we do flip any of these seats – it will be because of National Republicans including President Trump who many consultants and members of State Leadership are trying to run away from.

Apr 102020
 

In the Fall 9 out of 20 State Senate races will have no Republican on the Ballot. Ouch. IN the primary, we wrote about Senate Political Director Matt Klemin whose salary appears to be $152,000 a year. Klemin appears to be incompetent as evidenced by the decisions he made.

People’s exhibit A:

Klemin and Crew pumped $150,000 in to Jesus Andrade. He finished 4th.

IF you total up the votes, Dem Candidates won by about 9.5%. The district is D+20. This may well have been a lost opportunity as they cudgeled Bob Elliott out of the race and in walked Jim Ridenour. That fact that Andrade did so poorly means they failed once again to recruit a decent candidate regardless of the annoying Old White Guys.

Apparently, in the world of Matt Klemin and Senate GOP Leadership, Old White Guys need not apply:

When the counting started, Lloyd White was in first place. This suggests that the leadership line about being “Shut Out” of the runoff was a lie. When you add in that “leadership” directed a $1 Million Plus dependent expenditure in to SD23, only to have a relatively close outcome – it suggests that Rosilicie was not a good recruit and will struggle with name ID in the fall. Lloyd White was also attacked with about $500K of that money + Rosilicie was in first place for all the “Leadership” money.

I am not optimistic about SD23 in the fall. Usually controlled and pre-ordained elections blow up in the face of the control agents. In the case of the White vs Bogh primary I am privy to a fair amount of resentments from local activists about the seemingly pre-ordained endorsement processes. Given that the CAGOP (separately from Senate Leadership) appeared to ignore local activists in AD72, it bolsters the resentments.

In SD-29 and SD-37 we have a worse problem than in SD23:

Take a good look at these. Ouch. Remember, Stephen Choi at least can make a case that over 50% in AD68 voted GOP. Not the same here.

So, while Rosilicie was getting $1.5 Million poured in to her PRIMARY versus another Republican – LingLingLing Chang and John Moorlach got thrown under the Bus.

Now for one piece of good news:

Unlike LingLingLing and Moorlach – Wilk got some strong support from outside groups and “Leadership”

SD05 is a goner. It is a dem seat anyway, but it was the only spot with a remote chance.

SD23 is going to require more money than the “Leadership” will ever hope to have. Beyond my frustration with how “Leadership” once again tried to control things, it was going to be a tough hold to begin with.

SD21 I think Wilk will be ok, but that is a big if with the CA25 race slated to be a big dollar trainwreck. CA25 is overlaid onto SD21. With National Dems Ballot Harvesting, you have to wonder how much that spills over onto Scott Wilk.

SD29 and SD37 have high odds of being lost. Remember, there are national races all over Orange County and leftists will be on the ground like ants. Given that folks like Matt Klemin are making strategic decisions at the leadership level I am not optimistic that LingLingLing and John Moorlach survive their re-election.

The worst case is a loss of 4 seats, the best case is a loss of 1. Why $1,700,000 was spent on primaries trying to pick winners is beyond me. I wish they had that money now for their two Orange County Senators.

Apr 092020
 

This part ends up being good news for the GOP, if you call an expected loss of 0-1 Seats Net in the Assembly, good news. I had previously thought the loss was going to be 3-4. Here is how it changed:

Bye Tyler.

AD-01 Megan Dahle, despite having a challenger with $500K he burnt through she ended up with around 51% of the vote. She will hammer the dem by 17-20% in the fall. This primary challenge unlike AD72 and AD73, did not have any legitimate basis but was a vehicle for John Thomas to pilfer six figures in consulting fees. It also featured some fringe elements and rogue staffers with personal grudges – the typical stuff you see in an unfounded primary challenge.

AD-03 James Gallagher. Despite this district slipping to R+4, Gallagher got 65% of the vote. This tells me two things, Gallagher is popular and many of the NPP in that district are refuseniks because of Republicans like Arnold and Meg.

AD-05 Frank Bigelow – he drew no opponent.

AD-06 Kevin Kiley 58% of the vote. Despite this district being safe, Kiley under-performed some of his other colleagues in similar districts. AD-06 is 13% to the good for the GOP in registration similar to AD-34 where Vince Fong went over 70%

AD-12 Heath Flora 63.5% of the vote. Flora’s District is also sliding in registration like AD-03 but again Flora is active in his district and has a contingent of NPP similar to those further north in AD-03.

AD-23 Jim Patterson – he drew no opponent.

AD-26 Devon Mathis. With the non-scandals behind him he cruised to a 61.5% share of the vote. Hopefully, he gets left alone in the future.

AD-33 R vs R. With this district with slipping registration, it is safe for a term. This is Jay Obernolte’s district and he has set the bar high for engagement. It will be interesting to see if “Smitty” Smith can follow that model.

AD-34 Vincent Fong: 72% of the vote. Hat Tip.

AD-35 Cunningham, I figured he was looking at bolting the GOP as his district is alleged to be turning away from him. Uh no – Cunningham took 57% of the vote in the Primary. The Democrats would need thousands of ballot harvesters to overcome that margin. The population out there is too spread out. Cunningham by all accounts is a good dude but has gotten progressively more liberal with each successive term. Cunningham wins and has zero reason to bolt the GOP as his party label clearly is not a negative for him.

AD-36 Lackey #1 Lackey got 53% of the vote in this D+9 District. #2 He drew the sexually challenged Steve Fox as his opponent. Fox, who rented AD36 for one term could not keep his hands off of his staff nor control his foul mouth. Tom Lackey will hammer Steve Fox.

AD-38 (OPEN D) The Democrats did what the Republicans are famous for. A whole bunch of candidates got in the race and all fought with each other. This left the 5 democrats splitting the votes in almost prefect proportions. Since Republican Leadership seem to have a thing for playing in safe seats and primaries – how much money do they spend on AD38 now that it is R vs R? They spent nothing on it in the Primary. Some are quick to count out Lucie Volotzky, but she is basically starting in the same place as Suzette Martinez.

AD-42 Chad Mayes (D-Yucca Valley) vs Andrew Kotyuk R-San Jacinto. How much money does the “Third House” pour in to their golden boy Chad Mayes? They are going to spin this race as some sort of referendum on President Trump and the GOP – but they tried that in the Primary. They wasted money attacking Andrew Kotyuk and only ended up bringing Kotyuk up to second place. Remember what we wrote about the insider machinations leading up to this primary. Does GOP leadership and CAGOP follow through with real support for Kotyuk or does Marie Waldron want Mayes to win?

AD-55 Chen, Chen was considered vulnerable. Was. He thumped his primary opponent by 13 points. Phillip Chen is a rockstar.

AD-67 (OPEN SAFE R) Kelly Seyarto won the primary despite no financial help from leadership or the party. He has a dem for an opponent. Seyarto wins.

AD-68 Steven Choi. See Above. Choi is in serious trouble. Given that his district is overlaid with CA-45 where the Republican is expected to have a difficult time and SD-37 with John Moorlach who performed equally as poor, you can make bank that the democrats will have hundreds of harvesters on the ground there.

AD-71 Voepel. The Duncan Hunter Scandal and the faux Stolen Valor BS did not affect Voepel. He won by 22 points and will win by that or more in the fall.

AD-72 Diep. Bye Tyler. Janet Nguyen faces off with Democrat puppet Diedre Nguyen. That should be fun until Janet roasts Diedre over an open political rotisserie flame. Yes, this is far from a lock, but never bet against Janet Nguyen. This is a marginal R seat.

AD-73 Brough. Brough got crushed, finishing 4th. His defeat was huge for Republicans everywhere as his scandals would have been lead weight on Republicans statewide. Why “leadership” could not see this and why they interfered with efforts to run Bill out of the race is something I will write about for years. The only reason why we are not facing a massacre in the assembly has nothing to do with their decisions. Laurie Davies finished first and will face off with a Democrat. AD-73 is more safe than AD-71 or AD-06.

AD-74 D Cottie Petrie-Norris-Norris – Norris Got 52.3% of the vote in this R-Leaning District. It appears that the two main factions of the OCGOP decided they needed to have a primary fight. This leaves GOP candidate Diane Dixon with a $1 Million deficit to Norris-Norris and Norris finishing way higher than she should have because of the hard-hitting primary. Aside from AD-38, AD-74 was supposed to be the top target pickup. I am afraid the primary and the ineptitude of Assembly GOP Leadership may have torpedoed that. Diane is the Mayor of the Largest City in the District and does have means to raise some support. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

AD-75 Waldron +12.6. The feckless Assembly Permanent Minority leader’s margins have slid in each successive cycle.

We gain one with AD-38 and could lose AD-72 and AD-68. I don’t think we hold both 72 and 68 as there will be dem operatives from all over the country trying to save their moonbat empty shirts Katie, Lotto Boy and Harley.

Now for the sad news – here is a list of seats that within the last 2-6 years were considered competitive. Or worse, were held by a Republican in the last 2-6 years.

AD-08, Dem won by 16. Up until 3 years ago this seat actually had more Republicans by registration in it than dems

AD-21, Adam Gray drew no opponent despite an effort being run against him just 4 years ago

AD-31, once represented by Jim Gillmore, the dem won by 22%

AD-32, several Republicans took shots at this seat over the last decade but the incumbent dem won by 16%

AD-40, once represented by Marc Steinorth, the democrat just got 60% of the vote.

AD-44, once considered competitive with Rob McCoy 6 years ago, the democrat took 61% of the vote

AD-60, just in 2018 the Republican Billy Essayli came within a few thousand votes. Now the extreme left-wing activist democrat won by 8 points.

AD-61, in 2012, Charles Munger and Crew funded a Republican William Batey for this seat. His 15 point loss seems like a memory now that Ali Mazarei got hammered by 34%

AD-65 once held by Young Kim, the democrat incumbent won by 17%

AD-66 once held by David Hadley, the democrat incumbent won with 66% of the vote

AD-76, last cycle 5 Republicans filed allowing two democrats to make the runoff. Now the democrat incumbent won by 15 points.

AD-77 unlike Jordan Cunningham, Brain Maienschein actually bolted the GOP to save himself and was rewarded with a 15 point win. (Note, Cunningham also won by 15 as a Rep)

So even though we forestalled disaster on the Assembly side Look at the above list of seats once deemed competitive or actually represented by a Republican to tell the real story of the Oligarchy of Controlled Failure and the results of the top-down control.