Anyone who has been in politics for any length of time knows politics is an ego game. When you add buckets of big donor money, you get a frustratingly bizarre metric that people outside struggle to understand.

I’ve also watched a simultaneous social media driven degradation of volunteer politics to the point where it has been rendered useless and ineffective.

This is why you need to look below the surface of what happened yesterday and the news reports to understand the underlying meaning of what happened.

The Media only reported there were 10 (out of 25) votes to “Vacate the Chair”. What they did not report is that there were as many as 8 Abstentions (some say 2). Other outlets reported 11-14. AS we get more information, the media did not even report the motion correctly, it was a motion to CONSIDER Vacating or hold the election later. Hold the election later carried. This is clear evidence that liberal media supports Chad Mayes.

The motion to vacate requires an “absolute majority” of 13 in order to carry. This means that an abstention is like voting no.

So, why abstain? It is to send a message that you do not support Chad Mayes for Assembly Minority Leader, yet oppose a “coup”. (Remember, this is their thinking, not mine)

Now do the math. No matter what there are more than 13 when you total up the Yes votes and abstentions.

There was no obligation to schedule a leadership vote for next Tue. If Chad Mayes was secure in his position, then they would have just driven on.

The question becomes, is it Jay Obernolte? Is it Melissa Melendez? Or will it be Vince Fong (who reportedly joined other Mayes opponents in abstaining)? Or will Chad think that the result of yesterday means he still has the votes to stay put?

The donors and “Third House” community reputedly love Chad Mayes and this metric was one of his strongest anchors to power. I’ve been told that repeatedly by several people and some of his hardest defenders tell me that the only function of a Permanent Minority Leader is raising money and Mayes does that well.

Knowing the breed as I do, they were trying to split the baby and figure out some way to let Mr. Mayes down easy, because it is clear he won’t resign (see also my psychoanalysis of him). The Republican leadership avoid conflict at all costs syndrome is at play here once again. They don’t want to shoot him politically.

In the backdrop of this – Kings and Calaveras County Joined in the call for resignation. Also in the backdrop of all of this, the wishes of the party and grassroots seemed to be subordinated to the desire to maintain the sick dynamic of Sacramento. We’ve learned that the members of the legislature do not fear the county parties, the state party or the grassroots.

While it is clear to me that Mr. Mayes is done as Permanent Minority Leader next week, it is also clear to me that the Party itself is no longer effective.

I wrote a 5-post series entitled “Burning Down the California Republican Party”, it was a primer on effective leadership and grassroots organizing.

Feedback I received from deep inside the building indicated that the members received few, if any phone calls. The overwhelming majority of the communication was email, with still more via facebook. We may as well have been standing on street corners waiving campaign signs and attending a meaningless rally at the capitol.

While I am irritated at people like Phillip Chen and Kevin Kiley for reputedly abstaining rather than voting to vacate the chair (or whatever actual motion was made), after a night to sleep on it, I am not angry. I get it. I get their reasoning, and I understand the team failure that necessitated their decision in their mind. I personally would swing the sword (imagine that). I do believe that those two along with a few others will vote for leadership change next week.

Were the Grassroots more effective, we’d have toppled Chad Mayes outright last night and would not be in a position were we have to sustain an attack for another 7 days in order to ensure that Chad Mayes is not pulling another dirty trick. (deceptive tweets, lying to party officials, lying to constituents, shutting down official email accounts, bullying volunteers, throwing Melendez in the Dog House, running a drill to avoid leadership votes in caucus and the like…)

Think it through folks. If we don’t learn a lesson for ourselves (aka us little people) out of this mess, we will succeed in de-throning Chad Mayes, but will be in the same morass that we were in before our ineffectiveness and their lack of fear of us contributed to their decision to run Cap and Trade in the first place.