Jul 212019

IF you are a CAGOP Insider, you get the delegate only emails. The most recent one contained a fascinating sentence:

While fundraising numbers are preliminary, I am proud and excited to share that Senator Shannon Grove, Assemblywoman Marie Waldron and I have received millions of dollars in commitments. At HQ, staff has begun implementing a state-of-the-art grassroots engagement system and has substantially augmented our communications capabilities.

Let the two sentences sink in. The second sentence explains why I have received about triple the number of spam phone calls in the last month.

It is anticipated that the CAGOP’s Federal Election Commission filing will be appearing on the FEC website within the next few hours. It still shows the $26,000 net cash on hand as of 5-31. When I received the email on Thursday, it was clear that the results on this report were going to be poor and the email was sent as reassurance.

Who committed what to whom? How much has Jessica Patterson raised? How much have the two leaders raised? Are they doing the one-ask (aka splitting the money in thirds between Assembly, Senate and the CAGOP)?

Having worked on countless campaigns, I know when I hear the word Commitments I know that means at best $.25 on the Dollar, usually you collect about 10% of the commitments.

We were told that Travis Allen could not raise a thing. Now we are being told commitments are just as good as money in the bank. I’ve got whiplash. I sure hope I have to correct this blog later to show that those Commitments were more real than any past campaign or effort I’ve ever worked on. Otherwise, the key argument against Travis Allen for CAGOP Chair (or Steve Frank for that matter) was irrelevant at best or at worst was a bald-faced lie.

There was a Conservative Convention in Fresno that just concluded yesterday 7-20-2019. It was well attended. The focus appeared to be grassroots organizing. I will be waiting to see how many people that were in attendance are willing to actually man phone banks and walk precincts – or will they continue facebook and standing on overpasses?

David Carney was in attendance, we’ve written about him. Insiders have challenged my assertion that he was brought to CA by the Trump people. I am now of the belief that his presence in CA was more due to the failed efforts of the CAGOP Caucuses in the past and less due to anything Trump. Carney, to his credit is attempting to meet with every group of people he can in an effort to bring peace and unity. Now, this nexus is what caused me to misread his primary purpose as attempting to deal with the infestation of “Never Trumpers” in the ranks of CAGOP insiders. That appears to be secondary and related to election and campaign activity.

The Conservative Convention was seeking to recruit and motivate people to run for local Party Central Committee. It remains to be seen if Luis Buhler is going to be able to marshal any resources in 2020, or if any of the other consultants / staffers will be able to in order to try and control local party committees. Again, it remains to be seen how many of the attenders to the Conservative Convention are willing to put in the work required to get on the ballot and win election to Party Committee – let alone accomplish anything once in place.

It is clear that CAGOP leaders are trying to stay clear of as many fights as possible. These include most party leaders not commenting on the latest media attempt to smear the President over his tweets related to the extremists congressmen in the Democrat Party. Some Trump-Hating Consultants willingly allowed themselves to be used by the media and the deranged Kristen Olsen also used her shrinking platform to vent her spleen – but for as desperately as these people want to restore their own relevance at Trump’s expense, the party leaders did not validate them by joining them.

At the same time, Party leaders have been remiss to talk about the burgeoning Duncan Hunter Jr. Scandal or the exploding Bill Brough Scandal. Based on insider sources requesting confidentiality Jessica Patterson, Madam Chairman of the CAGOP has deferred to the local party committees to deal with those situations. I am not sure I agree with this approach.

I do not envy Jessica Patterson’s position at all. I also think David Carney would be a fool not to have buyer’s remorse over taking the job he took. Both of them have a difficult road to tow trying to fight against the trends in California. For the record, I want them both to succeed and I write this expecting nothing in return for the goodwill. If the CAGOP succeeds we all win. I sell plenty of insurance to pay my bills and will have a few campaigns to help eventually.

As an aside, President Trump is doing well in 45 out of the 50 states and is not the albatross the trump-haters that have decimated the CAGOP over the last 20 years think he is. It is also clear Carney’s presence has muted the Trump-Haters that are close enough to the CAGOP apparatus to cause issues.

Lastly, speaking of David Carney and Jessica Patterson – the CAGOP Platform Drafting Committee meets on 7-27. Deborah Wilder, a liberal Republican with personal ambition is the chair of said committee. She is also known to be close to Luis Buhler and David Reade (who was her paid consultant for her Secretary Race) will Wilder preside over a left-wing fantasy-land of watered down democrat values with a Republican label? Or will the drafting committee (comprised of liberals, consultants and staffers mostly) produce a document that is only slightly different than the current platform? Carney and Patterson most certainly do not want an all-out war over the platform.

This said, both are being careful about public comments leaving considerable doubt as to where they stand on much of anything. The moments of truth are coming shortly. Bill Brough’s meltdown could affect 2-3 Congressional and one State Senate election race. Duncan Hunter could cause problems for his 6 remaining colleagues in California – in fact, if the national media does what they are famous for, they could use Hunter to cover up for all kinds of dems. Eventually, Patterson, Carney and others are going to be forced out in to the open on these things Brough, Hunter and the ultimate resolution of the Platform. Eventually, commitments are going to dissolve or turn in to real money.

Eventually, the Conservative Convention is going to have to demonstrate that they are more than a political rally. Can they organize? Produce any real volunteers? Raise anything other than token amounts of money? Get anyone elected? Help the CAGOP win something?

These are just some of the things your intrepid blogger is tracking.

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  5 Responses to “CAGOP Update: Commitments VS. Money. Conservative Convention. Silence on Scandal? Platform Destruction Set for 7-27”

  1. CAGOP cash balance in state account on June 30, 2019 is $778,205. In 2017 it was $1,744,732, and in 2015 it was $2,067,596. Source: Cal-Access forms 460s.

  2. I fear that the Never-Trumpers and far liberal money Republicans will destroy the party. Republicans are not watered-down Democrats, we do not stand for the same values as the Democrats and once our tenets are changed…rank and file Republicans will leave the party.

    Jessica Patterson &, Peter Kuo must speak out or just remain talking heads for the so called elitist trying to run the party. Travis Allen and Steve Frank had the rank & file behind them, people willing to work with and for them…yet money won out and always as a lost for the party.

    We seem to have many leaders but they don’t want to put in the time to do the footwork. No wonder we have given the state to Democrats..they have worked hard to control the state. It is a shame that we do not train folks who run for office…they must understand that name recognition does not come with one race…and commitment is in the long haul, possibly over a few years…

  3. While we’re at it Mr Grcar, let’s share ALL the fundraising numbers. You failed to mention the Federal report filed last Saturday.

    The following numbers are from line 11d for the July Federal filing for 2019 cover the previous month with historical numbers mentioned covering 2013, 2015 and 2017.

    $166,787 raised in June. MORE than ANY June figures for the last three cycles in the odd year.

    1,239,967 raised YTD in an odd-year. MORE than any YTD for the last three cycles at end of June.

    How much did you raise for your Assembly campaign last year? Not even enough to qualify as a committee so you of all folks should understand the challenges of fundraising. For you newcomers, that’s less than $2,000.

    I’d say that chairman Patterson is doing just fine in this department.

    While there’s never enough money in our business, remember it’s only mid-way through the odd year. It’s long way to the primary and subsequently November 2020.

  4. Tom – The CAGOP has a net $98K in the Federal Account. Most of the money raised this year was from Brulte. The Dems have 15 times as much in the bank. And, of course the primary is in March, not June which pushes the time horizon up.

  5. I went to the California Conservative Conference and I am going to run for the Central Committee. So they have at least one real volunteer from the conference. Any suggestions to help me win would be greatly appreciated. Thanks, Aaron.

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