Oct 232018

Politics is and always will be an insider game. President Trump is a glaring exception to this rule, but the sausage factory is in full grind.

Ted Gaines appears to have successfully shopped for his next office – getting a seat in the now useless Board of Equalization. By the time Ted Gaines is termed out, he will have been in public office for over 30 years. His lasting legacy is ineffectiveness, luck, insider connections and a trail of bodies left on his way to getting his wife a seat at the trough.

When Ted Gaines was a State Senator- he was able to threaten donors to keep them from backing other candidates. He has no such leverage now, once the election is over on Nov 6th, he is a lame duck (vs just lame) and will not be able to threaten people in to supporting Beth Gaines like he did in 2011.

Beth Gaines – She’s BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK. The world-famous Assembly-member who could not debate on the floor of the Assembly, who had to vote against her own amendment on the floor (because she could not write the amendment correctly) is looking to bring another six-figure check in to the Gaines dynasty.

Bethypoo has had a State Senate Account open for over 2 years. She has not raised a whole lot in to it. However, it is rumored that an indian tribe is going to fund her campaign. (There are ways to deal with contribution limits apparently)

Should Bethypoo run, this will be the 5th(!) move the Gaines will have had to make to facilitate runs for office. The last move to El Dorado Hills, yielded a disastrous 20 point drubbing for a County Supervisor Seat.

Next up at the SD01 trough is Kevin Kiley. Kiley is sitting on $400,000 that he is allegedly not sharing with other members or Assembly Candidates. It is usual and customary for incumbent members to write out max-out checks in “Target Races”. It appears that Kiley has not done so, thus clearly signaling that he is running for SD01. He could transfer all of his money to a State Senate Account. Kiley and the Gaines have the same campaign manager – it will be interesting to see how that works out.

It is also clear to me that Mr. Kiley has his eyes on a Seat in Congress eventually. This would be the #1 reason for him to leave a Safe Assembly Seat for the State Senate – to expand his name ID and reach for a Congressional District that is smaller than the Senate District he’d occupy.

Expect to see the same Bay-Area liberal democrats that supported Kiley’s Assembly Run (The Charter Schools Association) pour and bundle money for him. Kiley, who endorsed John Kasich for President appears to have some serious connections to the Bay Area money.

Then we have Rex Hime. Rex is a developer type. I’ve heard his name for many years. He works for a “Third House” group as a board-member / executive. His calling stakeholders has caused his secret to leak out to your intrepid blogger.

Hime has attempted to keep his candidacy a secret, while wrapping up endorsements of local electeds.

Unike Bethypoo or Kiley, it appears that Hime has no wealthy suitors, liberal millionaires or Indian tribes looking to bankroll him. Hime appears to be fairly conservative but his problem is he is a big, old white guy (like your Intrepid Blogger). According to my limited research, Hime will not be a self-funding candidate.

With Kiley and Bethypoo in the SD01 Race, it will be interesting to see how Hime is able to fund his race. Having seen firsthand the fight that Bill Halldin had in a similar dynamic in 2016 AD06 Race, the pattern looks awfully familiar.

So there you have it folks, the HMS GOP North State Titanic is getting ready to set sail…

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