Apr 252019
 

There are these things called daily reports. If you track them, you can watch the flow of the money. They are also an indicator of strength or weakness in a candidate.

Kevin Kiley has made several tactical errors in his campaign.

Sending out an email attacking the Roseville Chamber of Commerce PAC resulted in a $4700 Check to Brian Dahle.

Going to said PAC meeting, when the board of directors was inclined to endorse and then losing said endorsement on a 9-0 vote is another error.

Attacking the “Secret DMV Office” which is actually a constituent services office to try and gain brownie points is another. Said evil secret office is used by all 120 members of the legislature to get problems solved for people in their districts. It is clear that Kiley has never done that for the people in AD06. Why am I not surprised.

Side Note: When I helped get Brian Dahle elected to the Assembly in the first place, Kevin Kiley was still in Law School.

Picking a fight in an assembly committee in order to try and play victim after getting the expected outcome is still another. While it may look cool to a small number of voters to be stuck in the Beth Gaines office (along with attacking the DMV’s Constituent Services Office) – the reality to donors is that Kiley now looks like a eunuch.

Another strategic blunder has been the reputed pattern of Kiley letting people know he is annoyed with them when they don’t take the desired course of action.

Just Yesterday, $275,000 arrived in to an independent expenditure committee. The money came from another pac that is funded by the Prison Guards Union, The Realtors Union, the Independent Oil and Gas Producers Union, the Sempra Energy Union and the Chevron Union. I mean EVERYONE that donates to Brian Dahle is a union, right?

Yet another strategic blunder is telling people “I am the only True Republican in the race”. There are two problems with this statement, one is Brian Dahle’s record (A ratings from Conservative groups) and the second is Kiley’s personal history of dodging the Gay Rights and immigration issues (and endorsements in tough races).

Another blunder is embellishing his resume. This is so common among candidates, that it is all the way down the list of maladies. In Kiley’s case, he has almost nothing for a resume so it is an issue.

Your Intrepid Blogger decided to total up Publicly Reported contributions since Kiley’s humiliating 2nd place finish in March. (It was made humiliating by two more blunders from the young man, one was celebrating 28% of the vote and the other was claiming victory before the election was certified.) Brian Dahle is very close to $150,000 reported and Kiley is very close to $50,000 reported. Ouch.

It is a double ouch when you add in that Kevin Kiley is reputed to be in debt from the primary. It was clear that Kiley was playing for a first round knockout. Due to the extent of Mr. Kiley’s debt, it is likely that money he raised will net him little or anything in the General Election.

Perhaps this is why Mr. Kiley’s communications have been getting progressively more shrill in the last couple of weeks?

Several people close to Kiley told him to stay put in the Assembly. This attempt to better position himself for a run for Congress may prove to be a fatal blunder, as there are some people your intrepid blogger have talked to looking for a primary opponent for Kevin Kiley in 2020 should he lose in a month and have to run for re-election to AD06.

Kiley is one of the more talented members of the legislature, but he is allowed his ego and conniving to override any promise he has once shown. A recent post from California Political Review put it in to perspective:

It looks like almost  every member of the Assembly and State Senate Caucus gave the California Republican Party a donation recently—most in the $1,000 category—but Assemblyman Frank Bigelow gave over $100,000, Chad Mayes gave over $40,000, Marie Waldron $60,000—Brian Dahle gave over $100,000—the Dahle opponent in the June run off for State Senate gave $0—Kevin Kiley.

This is the biggest blunder of all. Kiley decimated whatever goodwill he had by refusing to be a team player, cementing the all-for-himself perception some had of him. After the 2018 Primary when it was clear Ted Gaines was going to the Board of Equalization – Kiley gave no one a thing, instead hoarding his money for his State Senate Campaign. While some Republican members of the legislature are rewarding Kiley’s behavior, most are not. Still others (such as those evil third house donors) are responding in kind by unloading a bank vault against him.

This is not a crowded 2016 primary where Kiley had a million dollars from Bay Area liberals and tons of time to knock on doors. This is 2019 where the spotlight is squarely on him and Kiley is not weathering it well…

To be Continued…

Apr 102019
 

Ouch. This is one group that was regarded as being in the bag. Roseville is the largest city in AD-06 and directs a lot of policy in South Placer. While Roseville is not in SD-01, it’s decisions have tremendous sway as Roseville has nearly 40% of the population of Placer County.

This is known as a bad beat when you lose something this significant in your own backyard. Perhaps the Roseville Chamber of Commerce understands Kevin Kiley’s Cattle Company is a fraud engineered for a ballot title or background embellishment. Being an Ivy League Lawyer with more years in school than in the workforce is a tough product to sell.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Roseville Area Business PAC Endorses Brian Dahle for State Senate

ROSEVILLE – The Roseville Area Business Political Action Committee has unanimously endorsed Assemblyman Brian Dahle for California State Senate in the June special election to fill a vacancy created by former Sen. Ted Gaines’s election to the State Board of Equalization.

Assemblyman Dahle currently represents Assembly District 1, which extends from eastern Placer County to the Oregon border, including nine counties.

“Brian Dahle brings extensive knowledge and experience in business and government to represent Senate District 1 in Sacramento,” said Jeff Ronten, Chairman of the Roseville Business PAC. “Working along with our current Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, we believe these two leaders together bring excellent skills to best represent our members and our area.”

‘The PAC is an independent but affiliated entity of the Roseville Area Chamber of Commerce. Senate District 1 includes 11 counties from El Dorado County to the Oregon border, including most of Placer County.

Nothing to see here move along now…

A third-generation farmer operating his own small business, Assemblyman Dahle has served in the Assembly for more than six years and previously served 16 years as a County Supervisor. He served from 2017 to 2018 as the Assembly Republican Leader and is a past chairman of the Rural County Representatives of California. Brian and his wife, Megan, live in the rural community of Bieber and have three children – Chase, Reagan, and Roslyn.

Kevin is not having a good time these days.

Apr 052019
 
We are winning! If current trends continue we will finish in first by several hundred votes!

Then along came Shasta County.

Click here to see the results for yourself.

There is a reason why your intrepid blogger mocked Kevin Kiley for claiming victory – not only because he did not finish first, but 27.9% of the vote is nothing to crow about in any election at any time. It just makes Kevin look like Baghdad Bob.

It is going to be a long two months.

Mar 272019
 

Kevin Kiley hoarded $480,000 in his campaign account, while Brian Dahle raised and spent $1 Million trying to help his colleagues survive the 2018 election. Kiley had $200,000 more in the bank as recently as 6 weeks ago, yet at best managed a tie with Brian Dahle.

Brian Dahle is married with Children and has thousands of acres of ranch land. Kevin Kiley is single, never married and started a fake Cattle Company with Doug Ose (IMO), specifically to fabricate a background.

Brian Dahle owns a Gun. Kiley does not. Dahle owns a Home, Kiley does not. But Kiley stayed at a Holiday Inn Express once.

STOP STOP STOP Everyone!, I won. I am invincible.

If I got 28% of the vote, I would not be claiming victory. It comes across as arrogant and an attempt to overcompensate. The correct way? Hey! We’re in the runoff against “(insert hyperbole here)”.

So why is it not surprising that the ambitious Kiley is already making calls to people just hours after election night? It is not. It is not bad strategy, but does indeed underscore the differences between the candidates – Kiley is ambitious and seeks a lifetime in office (namely Congress) and Brian Dahle is a citizen legislator with a real business and family.

While Dahle was on his ranch in 2016-2019, Kiley was out campaigning. It appears to this blogger that Mr. Kiley has chosen a political career over a family.

Perhaps the above reasons are why Rex Hime has signaled clear support for Brian Dahle?

Perhaps your intrepid blogger is not alone in disdain for the calculated scheme? If you still have doubts after our series in the Primary – take a look at his email claiming victory. Take a look at the emails he sent out of his state assembly account promoting the special election.

Again, I ask where do the voters of SD-01 or AD-06 factor in to this? Similar to Ted Gaines, who I have hammered for years, it appears that Kiley has locked in to the same pattern. Shop till you drop for another office. At least Kiley will not have to sell a house to office-shop.

Speaking of Calculating, Note that at least the Placer GOP and El Dorado GOP Central Committees were not aware that Kevin Kiley’s proxy ended up in the hands of Kevin Eastman (a Jim Nielsen staffer), making him a Jessica Patterson Supporter. Two cent com members I spoke to were quite surprised to learn that Kevin Kiley did make a choice in the Chairman’s race despite trying to be clever and not endorse. It is this sort of pattern that works in the short-term, but not long term. I was told that Dahle’s support of Patterson was a factor in those two GOP Cent Coms endorsing Kiley. It looks like they were both lied to – I worked for Travis Allen, I know who supported who. No one representing Placer County supported Travis Allen, including Congressman McClintock and Assemblyman Kevin Kiley.

Three things Kiley does not own – land, a gun or a dog

Now that Kiley is in the runoff – will the fake cattle company, sending mailers about being the “endorsed candidate”, etc. resonate? Or will the brutal reality about his lack of life experience and work history – including his 2016 ballot title of “Deputy Attorney General” come in to clearer focus? It was clear that tying Kiley to Kamala Harris was devastating, a fair shot given that he centered his 2016 campaign around his work for the AG’s office.

This is why Kiley has to fake a resume. Dahle’s family and his ranch / equipment. (Three more things Mr. Kiley does not have)

As I type this, Kevin Kiley is nervously making phone calls to all of the supporters of Rex Hime. Kiley intuitively knows he is in trouble as his clear campaign strategy was to play for the runoff against the wicka-loving Silke Pfluger. Now Kiley is in the fight of his young ambitious political life.

We watched Kevin Kiley come unscrewed in the last four weeks as he was starting to buckle under the weight of the scrutiny over his background (or lack thereof). The fact that some cent com members did not know about his double-dealing on the CAGOP Chairman’s race shows there is still work to be done.

Perhaps Kiley’s donations from Yelp!, Google and Facebook should be talked about, beyond the coven of Bay Area Antoino Villariagosa supporters who also donated to Mr. Kiley?

Perhaps the fact that Rex Hime picked up almost all the local government endorsements on the natural in Placer County (instead of Kiley) needs to be discussed?

The runoff is going to be quick, brutal and intense. Kiley has to defend a record of trying to avoid the tough issues and having little or no resume. He has to defend the resume he has. He is also going to have to make the case to the establishment, most of whom disdain him, that he is their option over Brian Dahle.

Then, what does Kiley do in an attempt to woo the handful of Democrats that will vote in the runoff? He is after all the “Endorsed” Republican Candidate who enviously pointed out the Prison Guards and Realtor’s Unions helping Brian Dahle with expenditures in the primary.

The problem for Young Mr. Kiley is that he can’t get to Brian Dahle’s right. While he may be younger and prettier than Dahle, he does not have a family to post photos of. (Let alone a House or a Gun)

I’ve been 100% clear about my issues with Mr. Kiley. He made poor choices. He has not been forthright. He has been selfish. He continues to try and create a false narrative about himself. I can’t trust him to legislate and govern without self-interest. Neither can you.

Mar 202019
 

The laundry list of votes Kiley skipped would not matter as much, were it not part of a larger pattern. Skipping tough decisions is consistent with Kiley’s failure to endorse Jessica Patterson (while his proxy ended up in the hands of Sam Spencer, a legislative staffer).

I’ve come to the belief that Kiley is too smart and calculating for his own good. This causes him to overthink his decisions getting caught squarely in the middle or being conspicuously absent. The following are four examples:

AB 3250 (Judiciary Committee) – Kiley Not Voting

Provides for technical clean-up of SB 179 (Atkins) which provided for non-binary gender recognition on state documents.  Assembly Vote: 65-9, p. 6910, 8/29/18.  Signed

AB 2439 (Eduardo Garcia) –Kiley Aye (NOT AWOL)

Honors LGBTQ veterans by establishing the LGBT Veterans Memorial at Desert Memorial Park in Cathedral City as the official state LGBT Veterans Memorial.  Assembly Vote: 65-0, p. 6143, 8/6/18.  Signed

AB 677 (David Chiu) – Kiley Not Voting

Expands the list of state agencies and local educational agencies that are required to collect voluntarily provided information about sexual orientation and gender identity to include government agencies that deal with education and employment.  Assembly Vote: 63-10, p. 3132, 9/11/17.  Signed

AB 2153 (Thurmond) – Kiley Not Voting

Requires all public schools to annually provide in-service training to teachers on school site and community resources available for the support of LGBTQ students.  Assembly Vote: 58-14, p. 6850, 8/29/18.  Vetoed

Kevin Kiley is rightly getting hammered for his parsed words and dodging taking tough stands. We should have known what to expect after the 2016 Assembly Campaign where he was effectively able to get away with taking as few stands as possible.

Again – refer to the 2016 mailer from Andy Pugno where he hammered Kiley for avoiding two key issues
Then Halldin slammed Kiley over two other issues he avoided.

Who is Kevin Kiley? What does he stand for? Those are both serious questions.

To be continued.