Federal Elections are pretty much islands unto themselves. While the CAGOP has a Federal Election account, the money there is typically used for Party Support operations and member communications. Thus, you typically don’t see stunts like putting $150K in to a D+20 District for a 4th place finisher.

There is actually some very good news coming out of these:

Despite having a well-funded challenger, Tom McClintock looks poised for a 58-60% margin in the fall. In CA-01 Doug LaMalfa’s opponent has more money but the result looks about the same. I am not a fan of either congressman, but voting for someone that will Rubber-Stamp #INPEACH and Nancy Pelosi is so objectionable that I’d vote for pretty much any Republican. Get a viable Republican challenge to either of these guys, then we can talk.

This is CA-10. #CA10 Josh Harder did not do well. When you add the dems together, it is basically a tie with the lesser known Republican Challenger Ted Howze. Note that the political bosses in the area ramroded an endorsement of the 5th Place Finisher and it remains to be seen if they will help Harder out of spite. CA-10 was down the list and suddenly became a top-tier race due to this result.

This is CA-21. #CA21 The Scandal-Riddled TJ Cox managed to catch lightening in a bottle when the rage-spending of Bloomberg and Steyer put thousands of operative on the ground harvesting ballots. Also note the presence of the “De La Fuente” people – they are a pair of nutbags that are serial candidates. They decided to muck up this race, good riddance.

Cox has a problem as the total Dem vote is 47.9%. Ouch. This is your #1 Race in California. David Valadao is a former Congressman and is an aggressive campaigner.

I am holding off on writing about #CA25 as there is a special election on May 14th that will be considered a harbinger of the fall.

This is CA-39. #CA39 This is another seat that was harvested out of Republican Hands in the 2018 Bloomberg-Steyer Rampage. This is going to be competitive for sure as Gil “Lotto Boy” Cisneros either was lazy or did not spend enough of his lottery winnings on trying to shore up his support.

This is CA-48. #CA48. This is the second most likely seat to return to the GOP after CA-21. The question will be to see if Michelle Steel has the killer instinct to bring this home. The former GOP Congressman had been in office for a lifetime and was taken down by bogus Russia-did-it charges. This District is also nominally Republican in registration so there is that.

Harley Rouda is a back-bencher rubber stamp with nothing significant to campaign on.

There are a couple of other seats worth mentioning:

CA-45 Greg Raths vs Katie Porter. I think people are writing this one off prematurely. I am aware that the NRCC is attempting to impose their will on that race why would they care if that race is out of reach?

CA-03 Tamika Hamilton vs John Garamendi. A lot has to go right, but in a wave election you could see the 75 year old fossil have some problems.

CA-07 Buzz Patterson vs the Fraud Doctor Ami Bera. Again, a lot has to go right.

CA-09 Tony Amador vs Jerry McDonkey. This might be a reach, given that Amador has rung four times before and never had a pot to piss in money-wise.

CA-49 Bryan Maryott vs Mike Levin. Similar to CA-03, A lot has to go right. With Bill Brough losing, the world down there has been turned on its’ ear.

In the case of the above five races, it is all about money. Can any of the R challengers raise any? (or will they even try?)

I left out CA-08 and CA-50 because they are Safe R seats and they will transition just fine. Anyone that thinks Devin Nunes is going to lose in CA-23 is smoking crack.

This is good news considering what a wasteland California is, however, if we do flip any of these seats – it will be because of National Republicans including President Trump who many consultants and members of State Leadership are trying to run away from.