I will start with a snippet about Steve Hilton. I am actually pleasantly surprised at the performance of his campaign. All the signs I am seeing indicate that he is getting as much traction as you can expect for a candidate starting out against a 23% registration deficit and a media infrastructure that is a political brothel for his opponent. Will Hilton break 40%? I think it is plausible, given that Brian Dahle, with a lot less money got 41%+, it should be interesting to see the final result.

Similarly, there are some naysayers that think the Republicans may lose seats in the legislature. In SD40 where Carl DeMaio spent Kristie Bruce-Lane into the runoff, the question is simple… is DeMaio going to spend her into office? It is basically on him, especially after the Leadership Coup in the Assembly he was a major factor in. DeMaio has something like $33million in the bank for his various organizations.

Speaking of which, can the DeMaio created PAC to support the voter ID initiative get that thing passed? It is similar to my comment about SD40, given DeMaio’s pattern I have no guess as to weather or not he spends any / let alone enough money on both causes. They are both his though.

While all the insiders I talk to have opinions about Assemblyman Josh Hoover, Leticia Castillo and Jeff Gonzalez and their re-election bids… those three are inexorably tied to the new leadership (and DeMaio) in the Assembly. What happens to those three?

I’d like to see the GOP hold serve in the legislature, but changing leaders in August before a mid-term election seems insane and destructive (regardless of your feelings about the principals involved). The funding mechanism for this election cycle was set in place by the now previous leadership – now what?

Which leads me to a not-so-obvious consequence of the Assembly Leadership Debacle. Dom Belza vs Jamie Johansson for AD03. If you’d have asked me 3 months ago who the favorite is, I’d have said Belza.

But then, stuff happens. Like the last two campaign emails from Belza are missing the usual consultant contact info on them. Damn near every insider I have talked to indicated that Belza is no longer working with Dave Gilliard as of some point in August. That is not something a winning candidate does (kind of like changing Assembly leaders in August).

I looked at the world-famous 24 hour reports and I don’t see the PAC money Belza was collecting in gobs in the spring repeating itself now. While Belza got the endorsement of the far-left Nurses Union recently, that’s been about it from the “Third House” (see also swamp) lately.

Has the “Third House” withdrawn AD03 from their Radar? Has the Assembly Leadership drama spilled over to this R vs R runoff in terms of planned support drying up and going elsewhere? Belza was loyal to the former leadership of the Assembly. It is unclear where Johansson would fall.

The June Primary third place finisher Andrew Coolidge (a viable candidate in his own right) endorsed Johansson. Belza failed to reach 50+1% in the primary despite his huge financial advantage. Even though you can’t win outright in a Prop 14 legislative election, Belza should have swamped (see what I did there?) his opponents. Coolidge + Johansson got more votes combined than Belza did, but that and $6 can get you a cup of commiebuck’s coffee.

Is the lack of fundraising because James Gallagher is in Washington DC now? I’ve been told repeatedly Belza does not communicate well or interact well in public. I don’t know Mr. Belza – but I am asking questions because what I see is not an indication of a strong campaign. Anyone with more insight can reach out to me of course.

Does Johansson beat Belza? who the hell knows. But I am seeing the same exact pattern of the crazed Tenessa Audette when she was in the runoff against Heather Hadwick in 2024’s AD01 runoff. Hadwick had difficulty raising money against a split in the district. Audette was running around to Republican groups twisting arms until the Shasta GOP took their 6th vote to finally get the 80% needed to get the state GOP endorsement. Then Hadwick blew Audette out. (It is my belief that the coerced party endorsement was a major factor in the group that spent money on AD-01 coming into the district in late support of Hadwick)

Then there is the “Major Endorsement Alert” – Yuba GOP edition. It features a decades old logo template from Gilliard campaigns past. Well, your intrepid blogger has communicated with human sources on the ground there and the Yuba GOP expelled a member allegedly with no notice the night of the endorsement. Regardless of the reasons for said expulsion or timing, expelling someone before a contentious endorsement smells. Then the vote came down, with the Chair Johanna Lassaga breaking the deadlock to create the 2/3. Classic Central Committee politics, the world famous one-vote endorsement.

While I have not endorsed in AD-03 and am not getting paid by any of the players out there, I am reserving the right to always call BS.

I am old enough to remember when the establishment guys warned us activist CRA types we’d live to regret creating a party endorsement process because it would cause internal fights that splinter organizations. Given the post Prop 14 world, we are kind of stuck having to do something, but your intrepid blogger will have plenty to write about with regard to party endorsements for the rest of my natural life.

Which also gets me to the Butte GOP. You can’t endorse at the state party level without getting Counties representing 80% of the population to endorse. This means you can’t get the AD03 State GOP endorsement without Butte County as it is about 1/3 of the population of AD03 (30+%).

The Chair of the Butte GOP, Terri DuBose has been put through a meatgrinder. It is my belief that the rumors being spread about her originated from the Belza camp (not the official campaign). As well DuBose has been getting a blizzard of calls / etc. from the same few people (that I believe are party to the rumors) demanding an endorsement in AD03. The Butte GOP voted and could not get 2/3, unlike Shasta’s GOP circa 2024, Butte is not going to take 6 votes. They took 2 and it is cooked. (Which is the way any endorsement process anywhere should be: Try, Do-Over and Done)

For those of you that read this blog, you will realize that Terri DuBose was a staffer for the Late Doug LaMalfa (who incidentally supported Jamie Johansson). Yup, I am defending a former staffer of Doug LaMalfa. Welcome to politics 101. What’s wrong is wrong. While a lot of the Butte situation is hearsay, it bears mention as this sort of slime is the rule in a hotly contested race.

My advice to the Belza camp is move on and go run your race, leave the party people alone. Ya’ll have some money in the bank and some support, use it wisely. Obsessing over the Butte GOP is not one of those things.

Coerced endorsements don’t win elections. Ask Tenessa Audette about that.

The aforementioned Audette surfaced in my information gathering recently, and once I have all the info on that, I will be writing about it. Suffice to say, it is my belief that she meddled in a party event up north. Based on what I am learning, Audette has far bigger problems than meddling in local GOP events.

Finally, for your dose of Placer… someone who needs a few doses of happy pills has come across my radar again. Just when I thought that we were done with Marjorie Taylor Greene, her ghost apparently lives on in Lincoln. Holly Andreatta, who lost 71-28 in her ill-fated campaign for Placer County Supervisor is running for re-election to the Lincoln City Council.

Andreatta has issues, like spreading her love all over the county identifying ever-changing boogie-people as the reason why she got shellacked in June. Andreatta lost her own home City Council District by 18% in that June election disaster as well. Any sane, rational person would evaluate the situation and say whoops, “I better change my approach here”.

So allow your intrepid blogger to state it in terms even Holly Andreatta can understand, a candidate can’t lose an election by 43% without the active participation of the candidate that lost by 43% doing their part to drive that margin up. But what political observers know about Placer County’s MTG is she has the same level of self-awareness as her spirit politician does. (See also zero)

Basically in that coming council election Holly Andreatta is running against herself, yikes. Which one wins?

The Teacher’s Union is attempting to take over some School Districts, and hold onto the Eureka USD. The level of activity is high across the county. The good news is some of the dem/union recruits are terrible candidates, and many of the GOP incumbents actually have good to excellent relationships with the union. A deeper analysis shows a rampage by one guy in some places throwing candidates on the ballot and the union’s focus being on specific seats in specific areas. The common thread appears to be about the approach to issues versus the issues themselves.

Were I in office (which I never will be), I’d get to know every collective bargaining unit and have dialogue with them. I’ve learned over the years that respect actually goes a long way – even in the more hyper-partisan world we live in now.

Yep, the political world is so haywire that your intrepid blogger is giving advice on how to govern. Two months to go folks and your intrepid blogger is acquiring targets.