I kid you not. Tyler Diep’s crew are claiming that Janet Nguyen will leave the GOP before he does.
This is the mantra I am hearing from the inside.
All I can tell you at this point is the Tyler Diep vs Janet Nguyen Race is going to be ugly. Neither are perfect Republicans by far.
What I can also tell you is that Tyler Diep has several issues that were not fully vetted as he did not draw a serious GOP opponent in 2018.
If you’ve read right on daily, then you know I have been all over Assemblyman Bill Brough in AD73, next door to AD72. Brough’s maladies are lengthy and it took 4 1/2 months of constant pounding in order to get Republican “Leadership” to just begin to deal with Brough. (Note: all the donor groups and party groups have since endorsed Laurie Davies over Brough)
Your intrepid blogger has been told by party insiders that the lack of discipline in the GOP Caucuses is having far reaching effects.
#1 Several members are alleged to have had meetings to negotiate leaving the GOP. Tyler Diep is just one of them. Names include Jordan Cunningham (remember has was to have been the third member of the defect caucus with Mayes and Maienschein), along with Tom Lackey, and Ling Ling Ling Chang. There are other names I’ve been told, but I tossed these three out as examples.
Why is Jordan Cunningham Getting Campaign Cash from the Teacher’s Union? Perhaps they know he will soon be a dem?
#2 It is every man for themselves inside the caucus. Note that Senator Brian Jones, in just his first year in the senate is trying to bolt to Congress. People like Philip Chen and Stephen Choi are out on respective islands.
#3 The CAGOP leadership have been held at bay by the Party Caucus leadership – while the consultants running the CAGOP operation have attempted to strangle the flow of information coming out, limiting access and attempting to control candidate recruitment. In their minds attempting to communicate with Travis Allen’s or Steve Frank’s supporters would only give them power. It is a sad 90’s era consultant paradigm of power and control… but it also explains
#4 Leadership / CAGOP people are attempting to tell candidates for office who to hire for their consultant and day-to-day managers. The implied threats if they use an “undesirable” are loss of endorsement and funding. I have firsthand knowledge in one race and secondhand knowledge in three more, I will be following up on this in a separate post.
#5 In SD23, it is alleged that Party “Leadership” applied pressure to both the San Bernardino GOP and Riverside GOP in order to get the endorsement of the pre-determined candidate of leadership. With the outcome determined, the containment of the behind the scenes action was broken thus forcing the drama to the surface. This is not a good look for a race that is going to be a difficult hold for the CAGOP.
Contrast SD23 to AD74 where the Party Leadership was unable to rally an endorsement of Diane Dixon as a handful of influencers expended themselves in blocking a party endorsement that will only forestall the inevitable outcome. More than one person on the ground in AD74 has indicated that Kelly Ernby has not acquitted herself well. That is actually sad as Ernby could be an excellent candidate with discipline and training.
The bottom line – it would take a miracle for the State Level GOP to get through 2020 with no losses of seats. AD74 and AD38 are winnable as a pick up, but other seats are on the tracks including AD55, AD68, AD74 (orange county) and AD75 (Voepel in SD County under the CA-50 Duncan Hunter Seat). Jordan Cunningham and Tom Lackey are also both extremely vulnerable. That is 6 incumbent Republicans with a significant chance of losing. AD-72 is a bonus 7th and despite the mantra – AD72 was in play with or without a Janet Nguyen vs Tyler Diep grudge match.
In the State Senate SD23 (Open Morrell), SD21 (Wilk), SD29 (Ling Ling Ling) and SD28 (Open Stone), SD37 (Moorlach) are all marginal and could be lost. That is 5 more Incumbent Republicans with a significant chance of losing.
Now, layer on top of the above list the very real chance that some of the members could jump parties even if they win.
With a dozen seats on the tracks you’d think “Leadership” would be more proactive and welcoming in order to bring in as much help as possible. Nope. It seems the risk of loss of control is overriding proven methods of real leadership and influence.
There are two constants – #1 It does not matter win or lose as long as “they” are in control. #2 the average legislator could care less if the GOP Caucus shrinks to 5 members as long as they are one of them. This is the brutal reality behind the “Oligarchy of Controlled Failure” I reference.
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