Most major California Newspapers will not write about internal polls, but Politico will. The most recent installment of that is the Antonio Villaraigosa Poll designed to make him look like a better challenger to Gavin Newsome.
By now, the early polling in the 2018 gubernatorial race is fairly consistent: Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom is out in front, followed by a Republican (John Cox or, if he runs, San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer), then every other Democrat in the race or mulling it. For former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, the goal is to persuade potential donors and party activists that he is a strong No. 3.
His campaign last week released an internal poll by The Feldman Group, Inc., that puts Villaraigosa’s support at 20 percent — behind both Newsom (26 percent) and Cox (22 percent). That’s a tighter margin than in public polls (IGS last week had Villaraigosa at 11 percent). But Villaraigosa is betting on a different turnout model in the primary. The campaign is counting on the possibility that Latino voters who have not turned out in previous gubernatorial primaries will turn out in 2018, motivated in part by President Donald Trump.
So, Villariagosa had to inflate latino turnout in order to get a better result for himself. Just how much? His own polling summary shows that they went fishing for latino voters an inflated them to 23% of the electorate in a non-Presidential year election by looking for people that may have voted once in the last 4 elections, or something like that.
The overall sample was not released, calling the whole summary in to question.
It has the usual pablum about how much people hate trump and how much Californians want more social justice (you know, like 52 Billion dollar tax increases, broken dams and the like).
What all polls lack mention of is the following: If John Cox is the only Republican in the running, he makes the Top Two. If another credible Republican files, they might as well endorse Antonio Villariagosa. Antonio Suave own pol lhas proven, the only way Antonio can get in the runoff is if he takes Gavin anytwosome Newsome down a couple notches and there is one Strong Republican on the ballot. Cox has dropped a million dollars in to his campaign on his way to still more.
It is also very interesting that none of the dems are polling the sanctuary state, the $52 Billion Dollar Tax Increase and any of the other extreme left wing issues on the floor of the State Legislature today. Actually, it is not.
If the populous in general gets the least bit informed of what the democrats did to them with their supermajority, Gavin Newsome will be returned to his Mansion in Marin County in pieces, as would Antoino Suave to his Mansion in Central LA.
Lastly, Antonio Suave says that the math dictates that you need to get to 33% in order to make the runoff. That in and of itself should have told him NOT to release this internal poll. 26 is a lot closer to 33 than 20 is, especially when there are all kinds of pigs running to the political buffet table. With Cox staked to 22% of the vote in a turnout environment over sampled with minorities, the chances of a D vs D runoff are not as good as pundits would expect.
If John Cox is the only funded, credible Republican that files, we have a great chance to break the top-two curse and actually be able to have a real contest of values in the fall of 2018. I hope this is not lost on the rest of the interested parties within the CAGOP.
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