Jul 212015

How many of you remember Prince Potemkin’s deception of Catherine the Great? The prince knew his fiefdom was a disaster. He set up an elaborate ruse to fool the Czar in to thinking everything was ok.

Potemkin staged a series of displays (think 1700’s here) in order to give the appearance that his fiefdom was the best in the Russian Empire.

Facebook allows people to do similar things – used effectively, it can project an image. However, in the world of politics, observers are used to being deceived, lied to, snowed, fed straw-men and otherwise spun.

This means then that smart political operatives are cynical and observant. The really smart operatives also understand that most people want to avoid conflict and would rather do nothing than act – especially in the face of controversy.

The combination of the two mean that effective political operatives who are personally corrupt, or are clinical are extremely deadly because few if anyone will stand up to them.

This is why scams are common in politics.

Some screenshots that made their way to me included some nuggets about the voracity of the SB277 campaign.

I also know that the proponents are responding to this blog in real time.

I also know that they have little or no resources and are counting on a naive volunteer base to continue to solicit more funds.

Witness, “We have 100,000 petitions” in one comment. (psst, you need 380,000 valid signatures to qualify)

“We have had a number of questions about the number of petitions we are allowed to give out to individuals…”

There is no legal limit on the number of petitions that can be handed out. Donnelly knows this. Lauren Stephens knows this. This means that they are out of money and are having to ration petitions.

Every initiative / referendum campaign I have been involved in gives out petitions liberally to anyone that wants them… so seeing comments about the campaign needing to monitor all the petitions in real time suggests that they are indeed short of resources.

“Our goal is to turn in 400,000” – this is what you say when you know your effort is lackluster in order to lower expectations. This is similar behavior to past referendum campaigns that have failed spectacularly. Any seasoned campaign operative would understand that you need 1.5 times at least turned in to get the job done. If you are completely dependent upon volunteers, you should shoot for 1.8 times as the error rate amongst non-professionals is extremely high.

I believe the reasons why they are short of resources are that they are completely dependent upon the tea party for their support. Witness the banter on their campaign pages on social media.

Where are the democrats? There were several that voted against the bill. Where are the independents? Why is there no effort to broaden the base?

I believe another reason why they are short of money is that Tim Donnelly is reputed to be receiving advertising revenue for his fledgling radio show from the campaign. This is also alleged to be the reason why Mr. Donnelly was prevented from touring the USA with Donald Trump vis-a-vis, the Trump anti-illegal-immigration tour. (Trump did indeed invite Donnelly to participate)

I learned when investigating Tim Donnelly in 2014 that he is severely in debt. He is also reputed to be in debt to several former constituents of his assembly district. This suggests why he is pushing this ruse as far as he is – even the most attention starved would-be radio stars have limits.

Related to the referendum effort itself, it gets better – if you peruse the “official” SB277 referendum pages… besides seeing that a majority of the support is from out of state, you will see chatter about visiting the DMV, the Social Security Offices, Welfare Offices, etc.

Anyone that knows how to run an effort would tell you that doing any of the above could land you in hot water as the government workers would likely call the cops on you. Why is Lauren Stephens suggesting this? Was this some sort of a post in order to look legitimate?

So then, ask yourself is this thing real? If it is not real, then what other nexus is there for Tim Donnelly and Lauren Stephens other than personal aggrandizement and financial gain?

Meantime, other people that really care about the issue are finding out the brutal reality of the situation:

1. Donnelly is toxic, no one wants to be a part of anything he is headlining.

2. Donnelly is mistreating people that do not do 100% of what he wants them to

3. Lauren Stephens has been scorching the earth behind herself. (the sad fact is that she may be completely unaware of it)

4. Many would-be Donors are using Tim Donnelly as a Judas goat in order to not participate.

5. The supporters of the effort are continuing their paranoid conspiracies against Republican legislators.

No amount of pictures of the same boxes of petitions are going to change the reality. The SB277 referendum appears to be a scam and little more than a way for Tim Donnelly and Lauren Stephens to pay their bills. They need to come clean about what is being done with whatever money they have raised.

When I wrote that they could not afford to print petitions, I meant it. Printing 100,000 petitions (if indeed that assertion is the truth) in order to cover themselves publicly does not cut it. You need 380,000 signatures, you need 3-5 times that many petitions. With 60 days to go and with Mr. Donnelly and Ms. Stephens scorching the earth – the breaking point where it becomes impossible is coming quickly.

Will this charade be worth it to them? Or, worse do they really believe they can win given what they are doing?

Jul 132015

Remember when I excoriated Karen England and Company over the AB1266 Referendum? Apparently, they have learned their lesson – partially.

After running what many believed was another fundraiser to Capitol Resource Institute, the thing got legs and damn near qualified.

After leaving California and trying to reinvent herself in Nevada – England got eviscerated in Nevada and appears to be back in California once again trying to run an AB1266 Initiative.

They are still obsessing over the “Bathroom Bill” aspect of the deal – which in a far-left state like California will not resonate the way the fairness in youth sports argument would. Far be it from me to criticize the superior intellects of Ms. England and co.

I think AB1266 is evil. I agree with any effort to overturn it and think those that voted in favor of it have violated the public trust they were elected to serve.

While I detest Karen England – I will endorse the concept of overturning AB1266. I can not and will not aid anything that directly or indirectly benefits the Capitol Resource Institute. I am not alone in that sentiment, which is why I believe that effort will fail.

However, I have been told that England has real professional help. (I wish it included a therapist, but I digress) This could ensure a legitimate effort that has potential to succeed. England has to win this or she is done. I am amazed at her psychotic persistence and how many political lives she appears to have.

This is quite different than the doomed SB277 referendum. It was borne out of the paranoid fantasy of a deranged non-Republican activist in Fresno.

She managed to get one of the most toxic figures in California Politics to front the effort. So far, they lack the funds to even be able to print the petitions if they get a title and summary from the AG’s office this week.

The individual behind the SB277 effort will seek to blame this blogger and the other individual who attempted to file a referendum for the failure of her effort.

However, her own behavior and what she did to more people than just us, along with Tim Donnelly will seal its’ doom.

The Bottom Line is that legislators on both sides will not be involved with anything Tim Donnelly – and Donnelly knows this.

The Bottom Line is that donors have used Donnelly as a Judas Goat in order to refuse to act, or they have used the age-old excuse of “Not getting in the middle of a fight” as an excuse.

So – while the petitioner satisfied her inner desire to get even with “the other guy”, she has succeeded in screwing the parents of California out of a chance for justice. Meantime, Tim Donnelly got another 15 minutes to delude himself he is important.

Man, California is screwed up.

P.S. as a total irony – Then Assemblymember Tim Donnelly was the lone vote in favor of the Confederate Battle Flag while running for governor in 2014. In light of current events, something about a broken clock and something about having no political awareness…

May 052014

The California Assembly on Monday passed legislation that would ban the state from selling or displaying the Confederate flag, or any similar image, with Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Donnelly casting the sole vote in opposition.

Donnelly, of Twin Peaks near Lake Arrowhead, said the bill violated the 1st Amendment and “would silence free speech.’’

“We shouldn’t be here picking the kind of speech that we like. I abhor racism but the concept that in a country that was founded on the right of free speech … that we are going to ban certain types of speech is antithetical to the 1st Amendment,” Donnelly said on the floor of the Assembly.

“I am not standing here defending the symbol,’’ he said. “I am standing here defending the principle that the 1st Amendment should apply in all state buildings, of all places,’’

The legislation passed 72 to 1 and now heads to  the state Senate for consideration.

Credit: LA Times

Tim Donnelly is a month away from Primary Day and he attempts to earn media by supporting the confederate flag in the name of liberty? #facepalm

If Tim could not support this bill – he should have gone to the bathroom and skipped the vote.

When you add this to the hysteria being promoted by some of his supporters accusing Neel Kashkari (a Hindu) of supporting Sharia Law, and the bombastic statements about the borders included:

“I am a descendant of Jim Bowie, who died at the Alamo,” Donnelly, then a leader in the Minuteman border-patrol group, said at a rally in Temecula that year. “It is rumored that he took a dozen Mexican soldiers to their deaths before they finally killed him. How many of you will rise up and take his place on that wall?”


This looks really, really bad on the state stage.

“There is a growing insurgency, right here in Los Angeles,” he said. “…We need to begin to root out the insurgency in cities like Los Angeles, Chicago and New York, just as we are doing in Baghdad, Samarra and Tikrit, 9,000 miles away.

And 8 years later, Tim Donnelly votes in favor of the confederate flag.

Jerry Brown has $15 million to spend. I wonder what he would do with some of that money were Donnelly to be the nominee for the GOP?

I support Neel Kashkari because I care about the future of the GOP and what kind of message we will be sending to the soon to be majority of California’s population.

Apr 282014

John Hrabe at the Cal Newsroom just blew up Tim Donnelly.

In contrast to his carefully-crafted image as a supporter of free market capitalism and individual liberty, Donnelly’s position on redevelopment not only puts him at odds with the Tea Party, but makes him with the most “socialist” candidate in the area of property rights.

And – this is just the start of the column.

Then add the muscle that Neel Kashkari added to today:

Mitt Romney and Darrell Issa endorse Neel Kashkari

The Mitt Romney endorsement matters a ton to me, this is a big deal. I really believed in and believe in Mitt Romney and hope he runs for President again in 2016.

I am starting to wonder if suddenly we have a race here.

Apr 262014

As you all know, the CRA endorsed Tim Donnelly. I am also a Vice President of CRA. I write this as an individual, not representing the CRA.

Neel Kashkari is the only other GOP candidate with money, he is a social liberal who I have met in person. I like Neel as a person, he is an articulate man and very engaging.

Tim Donnelly is earnest and very socially awkward. Donnelly has been busting his tail campaigning the old fashioned way. Donnelly has an empassioned army, many from the fringes of the political movement who have found a rally point.

I have told many people that I am torn.

I have serious reservations about Donnelly with regard to whether he helps or hurts the GOP as a whole at the top of the ticket.

The media hates Tim Donnelly. They have investigated him thoroughly. The best they have come up with is a teenage altercation and a video in 2006 where Tim Donnelly is making some very strong statements about the borders and immigration.

The video in 2006 is what concerns me the most. I know Tim Donnelly is not a racist. However, there are tons of low-information voters and Jerry Brown has $20 million to spend. It is this dynamic that concerns me – especially in swing, majority dem districts in Central California and a few districts in the south with significant latino populations that we need to win / maintain.

If it was a purely ideological decision, I’d be chugging Donnelly Kool-Aid by the gallon.

Then, I look at the departure of Jennifer Kerns.

I look at the gun in the airport incident, and even before that some of the grumblings in the capitol about Tim Donnelly being a lone-ranger.

Is a lone-ranger that got caught with a gun in the airport good for the GOP? What about the Video from 2006?

Then, I look at the departure of Alex Vassar and the grumblings in the Capitol about the circumstances surrounding it.

Then the FPPC Complaint filed against Tim Donnelly does not look so ridiculous after all.

Is Tim Donnelly running for liberty to establish a self-exemption from the rules?

Then, recently – I found out that Tim Donnelly has been paying a deadbeat dad with a record as long as my arm of legal trouble for campaign work.

Actually, the payments went to his wife – because it appears any money Rodney Stanhope gets will be garnished to pay back child support or tax liens.

One page 287 of the 2013 Donnelly report is a payment of $781.20 to Sara Pace Stanhope and on Page 144 of the 3-17-2014 Donnelly report is a payment of $1554.81 to Space Promotions, a company set up in Sarah’s name that past payments for Rodney’s political work have been made to.

There is a pattern here. It keeps getting worse, not better. I am wondering what’s next.

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