Sep 252016

Let’s dive right in to some of the most recent polls as of 9/25/2016

The Washington Post / ABC poll showed Hillary Clinton with a 2 Point Lead. When you take a close look – the sample they chose shows that Barack Obama has a 55% approval rating. This is high by about 7-10 points.

Then you take a closer look at the partisan makeup of the poll: 33 Dem/23 R/36 I. Whoops. This is a poll with a dem +10 Sample and Hillary Clinton is only at +2. Now you know why her campaign has not been pushing polling numbers, only the media.

It gets better – take a look at McClatchy / Marist. Marist has historically been favorable to democrat candidates. This poll wants you to believe that democrats will outnumber Republicans by 5 points. 37-32 with 30% Independents.

This alone does not suggest how they got Clinton up to a 7 point lead.

Strong Dems go up a point to 26-20 over Strong Republicans. The poll wants us to also believe that 12% of Republicans are going to vote for Hillary Clinton. 22% of the sample are under 30 voters. That is awfully high on both accounts.

Take a look at the Morning Call poll in Pennsylvania that shows Hillary clinging to a 2 point lead – it is 47% Dem 39% Republican with only 10% Independent. Now you know why her campaign is in a panic.

Add in that 17% of the Sample was under 30 (2 points high) an only 24% was over 65 – you can see graphically that the pollsters are either deliberately under-sampling groups favorable to Donald Trump or they are stuck in some sort of a turnout model from 2008.

I also took a look at a series of state polls – Virginia, Colorado and Missouri as done by CBS.

IN Colorado – they used a +2 Dem Sample, while the state registration is almost even. They also limited older voters to only 18% of the sample. There is no historical precedent for that at all. Even with this manipulation – they only got Hillary Clinton a 1 point lead.

There was a consistent thread with all the CBS polls – “Strong Dems” outnumbered “Strong Republicans” by at least 6 points in each sample.

Virginia was +8 for Clinton according to the topline result.

Strong Dems outnumber Strong Republicans 26-17 in the sample. VA is almost evenly split – Strike 1

Only 15% of the sample was over 65. Strike 2

Dems outnumbered Republicans in the overall sample by 4 points – meaning that of the Republicans sampled 60% were considered “Soft R” voters. Only 13% were considered true independents. – Strike 3

Now you get an idea of how the media is manipulating the polling results. Be vigilant, nothing is as it seems.

P.S. I mentioned Missouri – it had Trump +9 with an equally as absurd sample, I bet he wins by 15 or more.

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