Jul 292011

AD01 – Has no incumbent and basically starts east and north of Auburn and goes to the Nevada border in Placer. The population center is Shasta County. So, look for someone from that area – Shasta is known as a home to a lot of more “Moderate” Republicans, so there could be an interesting Primary depending on which candidates emerge. (aka some gun-toter from Lassen etc. jumps in with some money) AD01 has some of the poorest areas in the state in it – areas destroyed by the insane environmental policies of California that have killed logging and mining.

AD05 takes in Auburn and some area west of Auburn and meanders south in the mountainous region of Central California. This could be a natural for Kevin Hanley – long rumored to be looking at an Assembly run. Kevin is a Conservative – but is far from a bomb-thrower. The district may be the most Conservative Assembly District in the State.

AD06 is Beth Gaines new home. It is South Placer – stopping at the Newcastle / Penryn / North Lincoln area to its’ east. It also includes Fair Oaks, Folsom, Orangevale and El Dorado Hills. This is an R +20 seat and the makeup of the area may portend to a primary challenger against Beth Gaines – who did not have a strong showing in Placer County 2011 against a Democrat that did not campaign. However – if anyone takes Beth Gaines lightly, they have another thing coming. If a Democrat decides to take a run at this district, I will enjoy shredding them on this blog.

SD04 – This is all of Placer minus Roseville and un-incorporated western Placer County. It extends from Tehama County all the way down to Carmichael – in a gerrymander only a politician could love. This also pits Ted Gaines against Doug LaMalfa – unless Ted Gaines moves. In my opinion, Doug LaMalfa is entrenched and Ted Gaines will have an uphill battle at best to deal with him in a primary.

SD01 – This is the other 80% of Placer and extends all the way to the Oregon Border. It takes in Siskiyou, Shasta, a slice of Butte and all the tiny counties that share borders with the State of Nevada until it hits its’ southern end in Placer. Like AD01 – there is no incumbent, so who will move to run there? Rumor has it that Ted Gaines is looking at houses in Granite Bay or Rocklin…

CD01- Herger. Takes in about 20% of the land mass of Placer, but about 7% of the population and extends all the way to Oregon Border. If Herger gets a primary challenge, I will be surprised. If Herger retires at this point, I will be surprised.

CD-04 McClintock – takes in 90+% of Placer’s population and stays mountainous to the south. This is a 46+% Republican District and is very conservative. Rumors of primary opponents abound, but can a moderate like Denham or a Moderate-Conservative like Lungren take out McClintock in a primary?

None live in CD-04 so who cares about the residency crap.

These new lines are just as absurd as the old lines were. Prop 11 changed nothing at all.

As a side note – nothing happens to the balance of power on the Placer GOP Cent Com as the ex-officios are in place until after the June Primary.

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