Jun 042011

Update: I have been told that there will be lawsuits over the lines based on the voting rights act. In a nutshell, that act mandates that counties with percentages of Black or Latino population over a certain amount have to have the ability to elect a Black or Latino representative under some sort of formula. I am over-simplifying, but it sounds like another anti-discrimination law that achieves its’ end with further discrimination. Heaven only knows what a judge will do – I mention this is Kings and Yuba County are subject to that law and are being talked about.

Right now, 6. Soon, 7 – at least that’s what the “visualization” maps being handed out last week show.

For purposes of the Placer County GOP Central Committee – this means 7 ex-officio appointees instead of 6. Wally Herger would become the newest member of the Placer delegation.

How does this work? It looks like the committee is taking the communities of interest thing seriously as they are looking to carve out all of the Tahoe Basin in to the far-northern districts.

If I am Herger – I am not liking trading in Yuba/Sutter for Nevada County + Lake Tahoe. That Congressional District is far more competitive as Herger as not done much to work his district in recent years and Butte / Nevada County turned Blue in 2008.

If I am Doug LaMalfa – I still get to mess with things in Placer County – but only as a representative of 1/2 of the Placer 5th Supervisorial District. This will allow LaMalfa to maintain the appointment of a Pro-Choice, No-on-Prop 8 Moderate to the Placer GOP Central Committee.

The rest of LaMalfa’s Senate District gets quite a bit different as well – and I think it gets less Republican, but only by a few points. It would have everything from Nevada County North to the Border over to the I-5 Counties. That district would also have the Tahoe Basin only from ElDorado and Placer County. Finally, it would pick up half of Yolo County.

This district will become far more competitive for Dan Logue if he ends up running against Jim Nielsen for State Senate – if LaMalfa moves up for the expected retirement of Wally Herger. The interesting thing is that I can’t tell if the Senate District would pick up the part of Yolo that Nielsen actually lives in or not…

If I am Ted Gaines – my district has not been finished yet. Since Sssssteve Davey (couldn’t help myself Steve…) is working on Re-Districting for the GOP side I am sure they have it in tow. My best guess is that 30-40% of the district still resides in Sac County. Ted Keeps Placer minus Tahoe and ElDo minus Tahoe – and Amador/Calaveras/Alpine. From there, I don’t know if they will creep it down in to Toulomne, Mariposa, Mono county, etc.

If I am Beth Gaines – I have a lot of fence-mending and working to do. Beth will end up with a very compact, very compact Assembly District. All maps show her without her security blanket in ElDorado County. The most plausible scenario is that Beth will have a district centered around Roseville.

Roseville, Rocklin, Lincoln, Granite Bay, Orangevale, Antelope, NW Folsom and parts in between on the map is what it looks like Beth Gaines will be served up for the new lines. Beth Gaines did not do well in Placer County and with this district could draw one hell of a Democrat Challenge. (Maybe Big Daddy Jack Duran? – who I’d enjoy whaling the tar out of)

McClintock – big winner. Gets all of Placer minus Tahoe, all of ElDorado minus Tahoe and gets Calaveras, Amador, Toulumne, Mariposa, Madera, Rural Fresno County for a District over 50% GOP Registration. He can enjoy 10 more years in Congress at least.

The third Assembly District that gets some of Placer? Not sure whose it will be. It looks like Auburn – the boundary of the Tahoe Basin will be combined with ElDorado minus ElDorado Hills and Tahoe and counties south to form an Assembly District in the mountains.

I have heard that in Southern California that the number of assembly districts in LA County goes from 28 down to 21 – the carefully crafted Dem Assembly / Senate and Loretta Sanchez Congressional District in Orange County just got eviscerated.

Expect Lawsuits – it seems to be what people do when they don’t get their way in Politics… from the CRA all the way to Legislative Districts.


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