Apr 292016
 

Let’s go from the bottom up.

Suzanne Jones, has $2500 left. Has lent herself about $10k

Kevin Hanley, has a net $54k left. Has bought some radio and some mail. Has only raised about $20k from people not named Kevin Hanley.

The first real news is that Cristi Nelson raised about $23k TOTAL in 2016. After the reports cut off, Nelson’s Husband went to a couple vendors for another $10k which leaves Nelson with $106k in the bank, just enough to re-pay the $100k loan.

Andy Pugno has given himself $101k, and lent himself 100k + has gotten an additional $16,800 in loans from family. When you subtract his unpaid bills from his cash total, he has about $215k in the bank. Pugno is in debt to Tim Clark, who was hired by Rob Manafort to work for Donald Trump, $15k of the $47k in unpaid bills he reported.

If you are scoring at home: 10K Jones, 105K Hanley, 201K Pugno, 100K Nelson = 416K chipped in by Republican candidates on themselves.

Nelson has raised a little more than 105K, Hanley, 15K, Pugno about 25K and Jones about 10K for a total of $155K.

This is insane. Of The total $571k reported by the above, only 27% of it was raised, the remaining 73% was from their own pocket.

Now, to young Mr. Kiley. The reports showed that the $80k in out of district money he reported was raised for him by an intermediary. This matches the impression I had of his campaign and fundraising all along. In addition, the overwhelming majority of his money is from out of district.

Kiley has given himself $8400 out of his 238K raised. That is not an issue. The real issue is that over half of his money is from Bay Area donors.

Kiley’s campaign crew made sue to leave him with 100k in the bank for the psychological value of having six figures. This is also similar to the staged pictures and the super selective campaign activity designed to create an appearance. It remains to be seen if substance will follow.

Now to my guy, Bill Halldin.

He did not use an intermediary to raise his $230k. He did not come out of pocket for anything significant (maybe $2k) and he raised $230k in 6 less months than young Mr. Kiley.

Halldin reported $130k net in the bank. This puts him in a clear first place, especially since none of the money in his account is his own.

Kiley and Pugno have already sent their first mail pieces and the storm is landing now. Buckle up people.

Do not believe anyone’s press releases – here are the raw numbers

Candidate         TIME IN CAMPAIGN           Amount Raised                Amount of Own Money+Loans         Net Raised

Cristi Nelson    18 Months                              208k                                     100k                                                            108k

Andy Pugno     2 months                                260k                                     201K + 17K                                                 42k

Kevin Hanley  6 months                                 125k                                     105k                                                              20k

Kevin Kiley      11 months                                238k                                   8k                                                                   230k

Bill Halldin     6 months                                  230k                                   5k                                                                    225k

 

Kevin Kiley had to get outside help to draw even in the money race, something he can not keep up. Bill Halldin is the clear front-runner, because real donors equal real support. When you look closer, over 2/3 of his money is from inside the district. No hyperbole here, just facts.

Apr 252016
 

Nelson EPICFAILWhen you get in to a campaign and it is not well thought out you #EPICFAIL routinely. Click the screenshot of the Campaign Facebook Page of Cristi Nelson.

#AD10 comprises all of Marin County and some of Sonoma County. Point Reyes National Seashore is in AD10. I could show Cristi Beckstead-Nelson some cool hiking spots in #AD10. Heck John Muir Redwoods and Golden Gate National Rec Area are also in #AD10. I’d get lost trying to campaign in that district.

Beckstead-Nelson forgot her own name apparently and has also forgotten what district she is running for. This 11 person race is getting more bizarre by the second.

For those of you that are still wondering about AD10 – check out a photo or two of it:

Autosave-File vom d-lab2/3 der AgfaPhoto GmbH

(Pictured – Point Reyes National Seashore near the main lighthouse)

Apr 232016
 

Please note – I am helping Bill Halldin and was proud to have been involved in helping him from almost the day he decided to run for AD06. This blog post is written from a 30,000 foot view as best I can despite my personal interest in electing Bill Halldin to the Assembly.

Where do we stand right now in the #AD06 race?

Andy Pugno – everyone acknowledges that he has a name ID advantage. Apparently, Andy Pugno and his campaign consultant Tim Clark (who was also hired by Rob Manafort to work for Donald Trump in California) were convinced enough that Mr. Clark had been working behind the scenes to try to set Pugno up for a run.

In addition – Tim Clark or Andy Pugno himself believe that his chances are so good that Mr. Pugno just contributed $200,000 more to his own campaign. Pugno can not recover this money, unlike the first $100,000. I will be curious to see how that money was spent at the end of the day. I am also curious to see how Tim Clark can run the entire state for Donald Trump while helping Pugno.

All this said, had I not been involved helping Bill Halldin from Day One – I’d have certainly been involved in Andy Pugno’s campaign. Pugno remains my second choice in #AD06.

Kevin Kiley – a young trial lawyer who supports Gay Marriage and has publicly attacked Andy Pugno for writing Proposition 8, has reported $80,700 in contributions since the 24-hour period opened. Only $6500 is from the Sacramento Area. It is safe to say that this young socially liberal trial lawyer is funded by Bay Area Liberals (and donors from New York and Washington DC).

Kiley has had limited campaign activity and has made interesting decisions on spending and content appears to be running to the center in the primary by touting the endorsement of a GOP-Destroying former Governor. Kiley has also signaled that he is going to attack Bill Halldin as he has been running his mouth liberally inside the district.

Cristi Beckstead-Nelson – her campaign appears to be running out of steam. She has had events that have generated little or no interest, other than placing some extremely large banners on roadsides has had little campaign activity. Beckstead-Nelson is how she is listed in county records and her voter registration, yet she is running from her legal name in her campaign. Beckstead-Nelson is also a social liberal.

Beckstead-Nelson’s campaign appears to be running out of steam. She has reported only $6800 in large checks in all of 2016. She also appears to have spent a lot of her own money and may never recoup the $100k she is on pace to lose.

Kevin “Hurricane” Hanley – has chipped in $105,000 of his own money. Aside from Halldin and Pugno, Hanley is the only other candidate running or AD06 I consider qualified and able to do the job. That said, Hanley’s campaign is headed nowhere and I sincerely hope he does not spend all of his own money.

Outside interests have polled. It appears that they are about ready to come in and make their presence known. What they do is anyone’s guess… Which gets me to Bill Halldin…

Having seen this from the inside – Halldin has a huge donor list that is likely larger than all of his opponents combined. The reports that will be public soon will show this. Secondly, these people are also helping the campaign all over the district.

Halldin, who is an unabashed Social Conservative, has managed to get the support and endorsement of people from across the spectrum of politics.

Halldin earned the following endorsements in the last two weeks: Doug Ose, Roger Niello, Congressman Doug LaMalfa, Senator Jim Nielsen, Assembly-Members James Gallagher and Frank Bigelow – representing a cross-section of the GOP and showing serious power for his candidacy.

This is going to aggregate and will make Halldin competitive with anyone running in this 11 candidate mess.

My analysis will stop here as the insanity will begin to hit people’s mailboxes soon. It is time for me to grab my Trump hat and some breakfast… gotta go get some precincts covered. Make #AD06 Great Again…

Apr 192016
 

Today, Bill Halldin became the undisputed front-runner of the #AD06 Mess. He bagged the most coveted endorsements left to get in this tussle. Jim Nielsen, Doug LaMalfa, James Gallagher and Frank Bigelow – all partisan electeds, represents a gigantic reset button in the race.

This is a message that despite the efforts of Cristi Beckstead-Nelson, Kevin Kiley and others to try and get institutional donor support – they failed where Bill Halldin Succeeded.

Cristi Beckstead-Nelson announced another law enforcement endorsement that was likely lined up by her family for her. To the best of my knowledge, the group involved did not even interview the other candidates.

Her fellow social liberal, Kevin Kiley sent out a retread email with previously announced endorsements.

Not to be outdone – Kevin Hurricane Hanley sent out a pay attention to me email announcing nothing. He called himself Hurricane Hanley, this is not me giving him a nickname. The email was also in third person like Rickey Henderson used to refer to himself in.

Kevin Kiley threw a temper tantrum in his email. The performances by the above three candidates were clear indicators of “endorsement envy” and I am expecting all of them to start attacking Bill Halldin asap… especially Young Mr. Kiley who has been raising tons of money from the Bay Area under false pretenses.

By virtue of evidence I have gathered, I have determined that Kiley is a skilled Liar. His ivy league law school training has indeed been misused.

When Young Mr. Kiley is in #AD06 – he claims he has raised most of his money from here. When you check the Secretary of State Website, you see that all of the 24 hour reports have been from outside the district… with most from the Bay Area.

Kiley signaled his future line of attack with a colossal lie in writing:

One of Kiley’s opponents, Bill Halldin, is the only GOP legislative candidate in the state endorsed by the California Teachers Association union, setting up a stark contrast with Kiley on issues relating to teacher tenure reform.

“I am committed to teacher tenure reform, higher standards in the classroom and the expansion of charter schools and parental choice in education,” said Kiley.

Kevin Kiley lied. Brian Dahle (AD01), Jay Obernolte (AD33) and Jordan Cunningham (AD35), all Republicans, were endorsed by CTA. Dahle and Obernolte are regarded as Conservatives.

The truth is only Halldin and another minor candidate returned the questionnaire. If you read the questionnaire, you’d realize that Halldin is a Conservative and anything but a Teacher’s Union lackey.

Kevin Kiley lied to donors as well both about the questionnaire and his involvement with the CTA – that story will be told later – but Young Mr. Kiley has staked the future of his campaign on attempting to drive the education lies home.

He has made it clear to people that he is coming after Bill Halldin as he has repeated the above lies about Halldin amongst other gross misrepresentations about his campaign and personal views to people around the district.

I am expecting him to repeat the above education-related lies in his mail.

Kiley’s temper tantrum has been informative as to what his strategy is going to be – aided and abetted by Bay Area donors. These sorts of undisciplined gaffes are what you expect from a 31 year old 4 years and 3 jobs out of law school.

Apr 152016
 

CRISTI EPIC FAILAs Cristi Beckstead-Nelson and Kevin Kiley are preparing to attack their opponents with negative mail, their recent #EPICFAIL’s tell us a possible reason why they are getting to the attack stage as they are starting to address the brutal reality that they are losing traction. (or, never had it)

Beckstead-Nelson has an event that actually has a host committee with more than 4 people on it. (In this case, it is 8) It features another politician on tilt, Ted Gaines at the lead. As you recall, Cristi Beckstead-Nelson donated $2500 to Ted Gaines on 10/6/2015 and then Ted Gaines endorsed on 10/13/2015. I also take note of the wine glasses…

Take a closer look. This is slightly better than the triple 0 precinct walk “event” from last week. This event has no confirmed participants but does have three “interests”. Wait, I thought Cristi Beckstead-Nelson had more FB likes than any of her opponents? When you buy likes, you don’t get real people. #EPICFAIL.

Kiley Wilson ScreenshotNot to be outdone, Trial Lawyer and former far-left liberal democrat Kamala Harris employee Kevin Kiley took a break from pandering to bay area liberals to roll out the Pete Wilson endorsement. Perhaps the former governor was impressed by Kiley attacking Andy Pugno for writing Prop 8 at that event?

My intel shows clearly that young Mr. Kiley is preparing to attack Bill Halldin and Andy Pugno. This is normal stuff in political races and is the only hope the 31 year old single never-married socially liberal Kiley has of trying to slip in to the fall runoff.

The former governor was no conservative himself. In fact, his name is still a net negative around here. I mention this as I am betting that Mr Kiley’s campaign handlers make sparse use of this endorsement as it basically represents a public coming out as a liberal. (both Kiley and Nelson liberally refer to themselves as Conservatives despite their own word and deed)

The #EPICFAIL part of this is the picture young Mr. Kiley selected of Mr. Wilson. Kiley was in kindergarten when this picture was taken. This kind of pours Miracle Grow on Kiley’s primary weakness. (well one of them, anyway)

For those of you scoring at home, that would be that he is 31, single never married and has had three jobs in the 4 years he has been out of law school. You’d think that with a resume thinner than Cristi Nelson / Beth Gaines that young Mr. Kiley would not want to amplify that.

Yes, folks #AD06 is going to be a mess… and your mailboxes are going to start detonating very soon.