I’ve said it before and I will say it again, my political artillery can reach anywhere. Anyone thinking that my affinity for the outdoors and the land of Cranberries means you are somehow safe should think again!

As I have been engaged in some projects in California, I’ve been tracking a few political races and I figured this point about 3+ months from Primary day would be a good juncture to share a few thoughts.

#1 Placer County District Attorney Morgan Gire is incredible. I am surprised that the extreme left has not tried to run a drill against him. His recent actions to deal with a serial felon that Gavin Newsom paroled despite multiple life sentences is just the latest in a string of fantastic actions by that man. Several years ago when I wrote several posts about the internal machinations of the Placer County DA office (that led to Gire’s appointment) I was not paid at all, but my personal instincts said this was a righteous cause.

#2 Placer County Clerk-Recorder-Registrar Ryan Ronco is an example of how to do elections right.

#3 There is a supervisor race in Placer County that is heating up, Supervisorial District 2. This features Shanti Landon, the incumbent against Holly Andreatta, the challenge to her right from the Lincoln City Council. Some of you may remember the lawsuit (that was never formally filed) and the local media coverage of it, which was former Roseville Councilmember Scott Alvord coming after yours truly for things I wrote about him. “The things” were largely centered around Alvord running for Supervisor against Shanti Landon. Well, now four years later, Alvord has endorsed and campaigned for Landon’s re-election. My how the political sands shift. (Note: the Lawsuit was settled before it was filed and the facts of that case are still disputed)

I am not changing my allegiance to Landon, I am overall happy with the job she has done as a supervisor. I don’t see a reason to change.

#4 CA-05. There is a race there created by Prop 50 eliminating half of the remaining “Republican” Congressional Districts. CA-03 which is the home district to Kevin Kiley was re-drawn in such a way that Placer County is lumped in with some dark blue areas making the district D+8 lean. Kiley has reserved airtime in the Fresno media market (the heart of CA-05) that I am aware of even as he is still hedging publicly about what he is doing.

I am not a fan of either Kiley or McClintock. In short, I have always wondered if Kiley’s recently crafted conservative identity largely built on trashing Gavin Newsom was real or a self-promoting act. I still remember when he was helped in to the Assembly with a bunch of left-wing bay area (Charter School types) money and his endorsement of John Kasich in 2015 (the most liberal of the Republicans that ran for President that time out).

I’ve written extensively about McClintock’s award-winning personality and his refusal to govern.

Given that Speaker Johnson has done a fundraiser for McClintock recently and Kiley has recently made several votes against the agenda of President Trump, it is clear Kiley is tracking left for either a run against Dr. Mengele (Richard Pan) in the new CA-03 or has burnt his ships in an attempt to unseat Tom McClintock. Kiley is expected to announce his decision on Monday. He has parlayed his national presence and constant attacks against Gavin Newsom into a war chest of $2MM+

There are reasons to pick McClintock or Kiley in a head-to-head race, but I am glad I don’t have to make that call even though I have supported either one of these guy at times in their past efforts. It is clear that Team Trump / House Leadership has made a choice should there be a Kiley vs McClintock main fight card.

#5 CA-GUV. Steve Hilton vs Chad Bianco and a host of other candidates.

Does anyone actually think by the time the vote occurs in June that a Republican will make the top two, let alone both of the top two end up being Republicans? The polls showing Bianco and/or Hilton leading the whole field in the 13-15% range are very early and before all of the competing dems start unloading their limitless resources. you have billionaires and huge names running like Katie Porter, Xavier Becerra, Eric Swalwell, Matt Mahan (mayor of San Jose), and several former and current California Statewide elected officials. Mahan, interestingly is tracking to the center while and getting some attention the others are competing for the far left horizon.

Bianco may have finally reached $1MM raised. This is about $14M short of what’s needed to be viable. Bianco appears to be tracking to the left with comments about ICE as one example. I have a lot of history with Bianco, having played a major role in his Sheriff’s campaign. in 2018. (Bianco is the Sheriff of Riverside County, home to 2.5 Million people!) I have had very little contract with him in this current campaign and can only assume that some of his leftward lurch is at the behest of his campaign consultant who is a known left Republican.

Steve Hilton, on the other hand is about 5’6, bald and speaks with a thick English accent.. His main political work was being a staffer in the administration of an English Prime Minister (complete with the socially liberal positions that entails). Not sure how that plays, but even if it did – Hilton’s long term presence as a political pundit has not translated in to much, if any campaign cash.

Typical of anything Republican, there are several also-ran candidates with big dreams and stars in their eyes. Only one of those in my opinion has potential to break out and be a force, but only if that guy proves to be the real unicorn of self-funders. (aka, he actually drops the fabled $10MM in to his campaign)

The only real hope is that with all the democrat “names” in the race that there is some sort of split where 4-5 of them get 10-12% allowing Bianco and Hilton to slip in to the runoff with 15% a piece. While possible, I can get drunk enough to imagine that happening as the democrat high command will step in (as they always do) and designate someone as the choice to propel them in to the 30’s, thus ending the dream.

… and Trump / the GOP as a whole are in a mid-term election cycle, historically not a good time for the party in power.

All that said, the current political climate is unprecedented, in particular the near civil war over mass importation of voters ( I mean illegal immigration) and the efforts to clear them out of the country. Further, the rampant waste, fraud and corruption being revealed in all levels of government is appalling. California will be shown to be the worst of the lot. Anyone thinking it will matter in California elections should think again, the hatred of Trump by the left outweighs anything else.

As has been the case for the last 20 years, Republicans in CA need to focus on some geographic areas and several individual elections as subsets to try and pick off pieces of the super-majority party. Nationally, anyone that thinks they have a handle on how the mid-term election is going to go overall is out of their mind.

To be continued.