May 172014

Welcome CREPAC (the Realtors), the Dentists PAC, JobsPAC (The Cal Chamber), the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians and another $950k from Mr. Munger to the dance.

They join the Charter Schools Association and Fair Pac – who donated earlier.

This puts the total at $2.1 million – with about $1.9 million coming from Charles himself.

There have been token expenditures in several Safe D seats:

AD4, AD7, AD9… these appear aimed at keeping a republican out of the November runoff as there are two republicans on the ballot.

AD04 Dustin Call is purportedly pro-choice and supports SSM. He recently was hired by Jim Nielsen. AD07 Oliver Ponce is perceived as a moderate as well.

If no GOP candidate makes the runoff – the one with the most votes is the convention delegate.

The most significant spend of the above three has been on AD09 candidate Tim GORSULOWSKY – this is ironic as the critics of Munger think he only helps liberals. Gorzo is pretty Conservative. AD09 is a dem district and this appears to be an indirect way to help Jim Cooper, locked in a knock-down drag out primary with an extreme leftist. The idea is by boosting Gorzo, it puts him in the runoff ensuring the more moderate Dem Cooper of a victory in November. I know Cooper, he is not a moderate – so his opponent must be insane.

There has been a significant spend on behalf of Jonathan Madison in AD22. There are two reps on the ballot in that tilt. Not sure why – this is a district on the peninsula in San Mateo County. My supposition is that Madison may be more to the liking of leadership out there.

5/18/2014 Update : The second Republican, Mark Gilham has run before, is known in the area and is also a pastor at a small church in San Mateo County. Jonathan Madison is 25 years old and no one knows much about his background except that he worked in Congress somewhere.

In AD24 Diane Gabl is one of two Republicans on the Ballot. Unlike with Madison – the spend here has been for slate cards only. This looks purely like picking the nominee.

There is massive money going in to Catherine Baker – the only Republican on the ballot in the winnable AD16. This is a righteous spend and I wish all of Munger’s largesse in Politics was spent like this. Baker has broad support across the GOP spectrum.

AD44 – at least $300k is going in to Mario DeLa Piedra. This is also a righteous spend. Yes, there is a much more conservative opponent in the race – who has no endorsements, no money and has never really run a serious campaign. This seat is an absolute must hold for the GOP as the incumbent, Jeff Gorrell is running for Congress. Please note, DeLa Piedra is not a liberal, either.

5/18/2014 Update: Rob McCoy the other candidate is a Pastor, as listed in his ballot designation. This could be significant  as the candidate opposed in AD22 is also a pastor and I will be tracking to see if this is a pattern or a coincidence.

SD28 – it looks like nearly $400k at this point in to Bonnie Garcia. I am conflicted on this race as Garcia is as liberal as Abel Maldonado by record. Some tell me she voted her district when she was in the assembly as it was always about 10 points underwater. The opponent, Jeff Stone has serious ethics issues that the dems could exploit if he was the nominee. True to form in a safe GOP race, there is a quixotic third leg that has no chance at all.

AD73- Anna Bryson. She is the most liberal of the four republicans running. As of this post, Munger has produced two pieces of mail and $37k worth of polling. This explains a lot of the pings I was getting from the district. Bryson’s husband and Charles are college buddies and it was widely expected that Munger was going to intervene here.

There are wild conspiracy theories about what is going on. Above represents my best guesses as to the nexus of the IE’s in these races.

Here is what I believe is the case

1. There is a bias toward minority candidates with this PAC. Mr. Munger is also a prime funder of GrowElect. This is a Republican organization centered around electing latino Republicans. It stands to reason that Munger would lean that way.

2. The AD16 race makes perfect sense, this is Munger’s backyard. As does his support of Mr. Madison, whose name is familiar to me within GOP circles.

3. Frustrating as it is, the AD73 race makes sense as well because of the connection to Anna Bryson’s husband.

We will see what happens next…

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