Commentary on Beth Gaines’ “Narrow” Win Last Night

 4th Assembly District Race, Beth Gaines  Comments Off on Commentary on Beth Gaines’ “Narrow” Win Last Night
May 042011
 

When I say narrow – I mean 10.8% in a lopsidedly Republican district. Click here – note that the write in votes do not count in the new Prop 14 elections, so the percentages on the SOS website are more accurate.

I spoke breifly with Steve Davey last night – he said that Ted never got higher than 59% in this district and he was expecting Beth to get 54. It was 54.2 in Placer, but 55.4% districtwide.

Here are some things I am thinking about:

1) Beth Gaines only won Placer by 8.4% – the Dems are going to look at this as a sign of weakness. Keep in mind that when I voted in my home precinct – only 61 people had voted out of 1350 (as four Precincts were consolidated in to one). That pathetic turnout always hurts the candidate who’s in the majority in said district.

2) Did the Nepotism thing play? I heard that even Beth’s supporters and staff were concerned about that effect.

3) Did the idiot labor unions actually help Beth by attacking her for opposing Tax increases? That was how I felt about the mailers when I saw them – it would be the equivalent of the Pro-Life people attacking a Dem nominee for getting endorsed by Planned Parenthood.

4) Redistricting. Gilliard thinks the district is going to be pretty similar – meaning that ElDorado County will still be there to carry the day (as it did last night by 15+% for Beth Gaines). Others think the district is going to shift to Placer+Nevada. If that shift occurrs – the district will get a lot more squishy and could be a target for the dems to try a “moderate” dem against Beth Gaines.

5) Where were the Placer Republicans in the General? I only saw Scott Yuill, Susan Rohan and myself there representing elected officeholders in Placer at Beth’s victory party last night. Beth Gaines is going to need to do some outreach for sure.

6) Placer is voting for Democrats. Some troublemakers will try to blame the Central Committee for this – sorry. For as much as I love McClintock – the Elk Grove attack worked, (McClintock does live in Placer now) and Beth Gaines being related to Ted Gaines is a similar dynamic. Rocky Rockholm was a flawed candidate who got beat by Jack Duran over one issue, Richard Pan beat Andy Pugno because of a $5million can of whoop—… Placer has had a lot of Republican Candidates with issues in recent years.

However, Doug LaMalfa won Placer by the usual margin you’d expect in his 2010 general as he was not related to another officeholder, lived in his district, didn’t have a plane ticket or $5 million being spent comparing him to Satan.

In the end – the Dems will try it again here if re-districting does not cause them to have to defend too many seats. However, it will be a different dynamic – Gaines et al will be an incumbent, and hopefully, She will have worked the district to develop good will.

Beth Gaines could also draw a prop 14 Republican primary challenger as well… they will have a hard time raising money as the “third house” favors incumbents.

Time will tell…

Late, Late, Late Independent Expenditure Hits Beth Gaines

 4th Assembly District Race, Beth Gaines  Comments Off on Late, Late, Late Independent Expenditure Hits Beth Gaines
Apr 282011
 

Why so late? Why at all in a district as lopsidedly Republican as this one?

The Opportunity Pac – a group that supports communists for public office decided to set fire to good money – but heck, that’s how democrats roll, right?

Two mailers hit today – one on the Double-Dip theme. (Wonder where they got that one from?)

The other is attacking Beth Gaines for signing the (GASP) No new taxes pledge. It is replete with the unreasonable charge (yawn) and the gutting public safety charge (yawn)…

All I can say is that the Dems must believe the polling data that shows people favor tax increases + sepnding cuts vs 100% spending cuts.

The only conclusion I can draw is that this is a set up to try and trim Beth’s margin of victory to set the stage for a Dem run at this seat in 2012.

Why else would they waste $30K this late in the game.

Make sure you vote on May 3rd, Ok?

FROM PLACER GOP: HELP BETH GAINES!

 4th Assembly District Race, Beth Gaines  Comments Off on FROM PLACER GOP: HELP BETH GAINES!
Apr 282011
 

Do you want a left-wing labor union moonbat in the Assembly from Placer County? I didn’t think so, either – below are details on how you can help Beth Gaines get elected to ensure that Placer County continues to be represented by someone who shares OUR values.

Republican Party of Placer County Logo
URGENT NOTICE FOR REPUBLICANS Beth Gaines for Assembly Needs Your Help! 
Gaines LogoOur Headquarters is Open and Working!

Please Sign Up to Phone Bank Or Volunteer at the Headquarters

During the Final Weeks to Support

Beth Gaines, the Only Republican Running  

For the 4th Assembly District Special Election

1700 Eureka Rd. Suite 170

Roseville, CA95661  

To RSVP a time to help email: [email protected]

or Call 916-626-9495

Beth Gaines AD-04 Campaign Update

 4th Assembly District Race, Beth Gaines  Comments Off on Beth Gaines AD-04 Campaign Update
Apr 242011
 

The Auburn Journal highlighted Dennis Campanelle’s “Campaign“. Knowing them – they are probably upset that Campanelle did not answer the bell.

The partisan Democrats in AD04 gave Campy enough votes to finish first in the “General” election in March.

Beth Gaines outraised John Allard by about $100K, largely due to the strength of name recognition and having a Husband already in the legislature. That same name ID helped her finish second despite a spirited campaign by John Allard.

Gaines, for her part has not simply decided to try and coast in to office in this lopsidedly Republican district…

She has sent two peices of mail – the second of which hit yesterday. It featured three Republican County Chairman lauding her Republican bona-fides and featured the Republican Party Endorsement. (No mention of CRA, though)

I am plesantly suprised to see Gaines’ campaign following through in the General election with Signs being placed and still sending mailers out. It is way too common in safe GOP districts for the Republican candidate to haul it all in after winning the Primary.

It will be interesting to see how the Gaines’ govern once both are in office.

CRA Endorses Beth Gaines

 4th Assembly District Race, Beth Gaines  Comments Off on CRA Endorses Beth Gaines
Mar 182011
 

By a 27-0 Vote of the CRA’s board of directors – the CRA has voted to endorse Beth Gaines for Assembly.

Please remember – this action is necessary because Prop 14 has eliminated the primary and the nomination process.

This is a fitting backdrop for the upcoming fight at the California Republican Party convention over how the GOP will determine nominees post Prop-14.