May 302016

SD04 Senator Jim Nielsen headlines the impressive list of state-level representatives that have stepped up for Bill Halldin.

“I trust hard-working, conservative business owner Bill Halldin to protect taxpayers from the Sacramento big spenders. Bill will work with me to stop the early release of criminals and to ensure consequences for those who continue victimizing our communities. I enthusiastically endorse Bill Halldin for State Assembly.”

Jim Nielsen, State Senator

Jim Nielsen is currently fighting attempts by Placer County Supervisor Jack Duran and others to turn Placer County in to a giant pot farm. (Speaking of Very Important Issues)

AD03 Assemblymember James Gallagher, whose District Borders AD06 to the North also joined AD05 Assemblymember Frank Bigelow whose District shares the largest border with AD06 of any Assembly District:

“Bill Halldin is a natural leader. We need leaders like Bill Halldin to join with me and the other conservative leaders in making the tough decisions in the State Assembly. Bill’s proven success at creating good paying, local jobs and owning a successful business for 17 years make him uniquely qualified to serve. I am proud to endorse Bill Halldin for Assembly.”

Frank Bigelow, Assemblymember

AD33 Assemblymember and assistant Republican Leader Jay Obernolte just joined the team recently. He said this:

“Bill Halldin will fight to create jobs and stop tax increases in the Assembly. Bill will bring to the Assembly the practical experience of running a business for 17 years and a deep commitment to public service. He will make a great representative for this district.”

Not to be outdone – well respected former State Senator Tim Leslie has endorsed Bill Halldin along with popular former Assemblymember Roger Niello:

Bill is a successful business owner, with deep knowledge and experience in our region. He is exactly the kind of leader we need in Sacramento to improve the business climate in this state and create jobs.”

Now – this is what it means when Republican Leaders are uniting behind a candidate for office.

No other candidate for AD06 has more than two state level endorsements. The above list includes 4 active members and 2 well-respected former members of the State Legislature.

May 262016

IMG_4238_2 (2)I have written before that I think young Mr. Kiley has potential. That time is not now as his youthful lack of discipline and campaign integrity are overshadowing his talent.

There are several reasons why Kevin Kiley’s seemingly bizarre campaign is making more sense now. All he has is Pete Wilson, who barely polls anymore.

Kevin Kiley is not a Deputy District Attorney, he is a former Deputy District Attorney. He is no longer on the state Payroll. This is deceptive. He is unemployed and his job is running for office, this is not a good place for a candidate to be in.

Kevin Kiley is 31 and 4 years removed from law school. This suggests that he is inexperienced in life, let alone business.

Kevin Kiley left the AD04/AD06 area for 12 years. He returned on or around May 14th 2015, and declared his candidacy on or about May 27, 2015. This suggests he moved back from the Bay Area specifically to run. In fact, he is renting the house he lives in.

Kevin Kiley has been overheard saying conflicting things depending on the group he is in. This is a classic case of either dishonesty or an undisciplined candidate. (A common failing of a first time candidate)

Kevin Kiley is a social liberal. He is anti-prop 8 and has criticized its’ author for writing and defending it

Kevin Kiley said in a Sacramento Bee Interview that the issues of Legalizing Weed, the Delta Tunnels and High Speed Rail are very unimportant to him. This suggests the influence of his Bay Area donors, where the Tunnels are a non issue, but legalizing Weed and HSR are popular. This is called trying to split the baby.

Kevin Kiley is funded by Bay Area Liberals. His donors include a who’s who of Obama bundlers and donors to the Democrat Party.

Kevin Kiley has little, if any support from inside #AD06. His mail has implied an endorsement of former Sheriff John McGuinness who has given quotes and photo opportunities to at least 3 of his opponents.

Kevin Kiley claims that more than half his donors are from inside #AD06. This is deceptive again as 77% of his money has come from outside the district, with the overwhelming majority of that from the above-mentioned Bay Area Liberals.

Because Mr. Kiley is young and inexperienced, when exposed to scrutiny, experienced political people understand he is not ready for the Assembly.

Kiley’s major endorsement, Pete Wilson, appears to have come as a result of his hiring the Son of Wilson’s long time legal counsel to be his campaign manager. The youngster was falling asleep in trailblazer training sessions.

Kiley’s other major endorsement has been revealed to be a fraud.

I have seen other evidence that his campaign is a classic “Potemkin Village Drill”. This is a term us old grizzled warriors use. He has been able to get away with this because of the crowded 11 person field.

True to form in a Republican election, all the candidates are fighting like hell to be unique. The pity is that several good people are wasting their money in a fruitless effort.

May 252016

IMG_3860Cristi Beckstead-Nelson had to go back in to her own pocket for $36,000 more dollars. This means she is spending $138k-ish of her Husband’s money on this campaign.

It is likely that she needed the money to complete her mail program – one such effort is pictured here next to Bill Halldin’s walk piece.

Nelson is clearly jealous of the endorsements that Mr. Halldin has amassed. I had briefly lampooned her look-at-me-I-am-important-too piece in a previous blog, but when put in raised relief, her 5th mailer becomes an exclamation point for the absurdity of the #AD06 Race.

Suicide Barbie has attacked everyone who has gotten endorsements and donations (yet, she is promoting an event with two of hers), this is usually a clear sign of the quintessential “Grassroots” campaign. No money, high hopes and a faceplant on election day.

Beckstead-Nelson on the other hand is clearly frustrated. She lashed out at only Bill Halldin at the feckless Placer GOP’s debate. It is clear from her countenance that she sees herself as superior to the rest of “those men” running.

The problem is – Andy Pugno has a history. (Good and Bad, mind you as he has enemies)

Kevin “Tropical Depression” Hanley has a long history of working in government and in Auburn. He was unable to gain traction in #AD06 because aside from Congressman McClintock – he has few connections to #AD06.

You’d think that Cristi Beckstead-Nelson would have an advantage over Pugno with his Sac County vs Placer Connections and high negatives. You’d think that she’d also have an advantage over a former Auburn Council-member who is renting a Condo in Roseville to run.

You’d think she’d have an advantage over a slick-talking San Francisco Lawyer with obama-bundler connections and a 12 year absence from Placer County?

Of all the candidates running, she has actually lived in the current AD06 the longest. But, few know her and the vast majority of those that do are via her Father or Husband.

She had to pay Ted Gaines for his endorsement. I proved this point multiple times in past blogs. It is likely that Bethypoo made a similar arrangement as well.

Then the mailer Cristi sent out when laid next to Bill’s walk piece basically sealed the commentary – Ms. Nelson must have made a snap decision to run without doing the necessary ground work or relationship building leading up to a run for major office. $138k of her husband’s money does not make up for that.

It is a brutal reality in politics – when you have to use a name different than your legal name to run for office, and when you meet with local government officials who don’t  know you from Adam – that should have been an obvious clue not to run.

Bill has the endorsements because relationships matter. Many of the other candidates resent him for it. This is another brutal reality in politics.

It is sad, really. She will have wasted $138k-ish of her husband’s money on a fool’s errand – she does not have the last name of Gaines in a special election to make up for her lack of qualifications for office. It is what it is.

May 242016

Kiley Parsing WordsOk – when you send out an email like this, It means a lot of things.

  1. You are short of help
  2. You are unsure of where you stand in the race and are not confident
  3. You are also trying to walk back erroneous and misleading claims you have made in the past.

I note that he has modified his claim of 150 volunteers. It appears that he has had to clarify his past statements that he got called on by stating that he has had 150 volunteers over the last year.

I have got bad news for Mr. Kiley. When he and his handful of current volunteers show up to walk half a neighborhood, we usually find out within 24 hours.

Bill’s volunteer list is over 400 people. We never claim that as that would be a misleading lie as at any one time, “Only” 70-100 of them are engaged in helping the campaign.

This is why this email is revealing to me.

I will re-state my past advice to young Mr. Kiley – spend the next 12 years developing relationships and then you will be able to get endorsements and support that you do not need to pay for.

May 242016

Here we are two weeks out, and we just found out who has a thick skin and who is not ready to hold office.

Young Mr. Kiley is starting to buckle under the pressure of having no real endorsements and seeing the dress falling off the proverbial campaign pig.

#1 Kiley sent out a bargain-basement 6.5×11 piece where he tried to rip-off Pugno’s talking points. Now – Young Mr. Kiley does not talk about Kamala Harris wanting to prosecute people for not believeing in the global warming God of the left. Why? Because he quoted left-wing talking points in his argument about the delta tunnels (which he deemed an unimportant issue) And – you do not see mention of the AB1266, Transgender Men-in-the-Girl’s Bathroom Bill because Mr. Kiley is a supporter of Gay Marriage and a critic of Pugno for writing Prop 8.

Kiley must be really nervous about one of the real conservatives in the race (Pugno) to rip off his talking points after attacking him for them! This is the sign of a young, undisciplined candidate.

Because Kiley has raised so much money from Bay Area Liberals, including Obama bundlers and Ready for Clinton Donors – he had enough money to try and copycat the other real conservative in the race, Bill Halldin’s past mailers.

Kiley did his own ballot cut out mailer. It is clear that Kiley’s Consultant Dave Gilliard is on tilt and is grasping at straws, or worse, Kiley is on tilt and demanded a copycat piece. If this was Gilliard’s idea – then this was designed to confuse voters. If it was Kiley’s idea – he has mail envy. I think it is more Gilliard and less Kiley.

Now turn to the back side of the mailer. Here is why I believe it is Dave Gilliard that is on tilt. I have seen Mr. Gilliard in past campaigns when he knows his candidate is losing attempt to confuse voters with mailers.

In the case of Pugno Vs Gaines in 2012, he sent out an outright lie against Pugno and against Peter Tateishi in 2012, he sent the infamous Emperor Hirohito piece that had strong racial overtones to it. Click the links – the Bee called the Gilliard authored mailer against Pugno an outright lie.

Wait. Look at back side of the Kiley Ballot Cut Out Mailer – beyond trying to confuse voters – it makes a direct attack on Charles Munger and the Spirit of Democracy PAC. Dave Gilliard is indeed on tilt and has IE Envy.

Kiley does not have the endorsements or local support – so he was forced to hire the son of Pete Wilson’s legal counsel and to pay Brandon Gisecki a lot of money for the California Republican Tax-raisers Association.

Now – Dave Gilliard has entered the ranks of the felony stupid. He and Kiley apparently decided it would be a great idea to attack a man with ton of money in the bank. Young Mr. Kiley has had a critical lapse in judgement, especially since he once sought the support of Mr. Munger. Even should Kiley succeed in making the runoff, he will not get supported, and worse, he may well get nuked.

In a less severe degree of stupidity, the woman who forgot her last name because her consultant likely told her to drop the hyphen in this district, Cristi Beckstead-Nelson showed up with an offering of her own.

After going in to her own pocket for another 38K, Beckstead-Nelson took her turn to try to confuse voters. #EPICFAIL

It is clear that the status-conscious Beckstead-Nelson who lives in Newcastle, not Granite Bay, wanted everyone to be impressed with her endorsement list. I call this mailer, the Cristi Nelson Hey I am someone too, mailer. She may have thought a clever youtube video and a manifestation of anger at a debate was a resurrection of her campaign… (BTW- I use a shotgun, as one shell leaves the same mark on the target, but I digress 😉 ) but the lackluster, uninspired effort overall has her headed in to a contest with Suicide Barbie for 7th place.

Both Kiley and Beckstead-Nelson want to be important and substantial, yet neither have the heritage in the area or the support. Both are clearly jealous of Bill Halldin’s endorsements and widespread support from the community and are struggling to gain traction. Let me offer them both a suggestion – in 12 years both will still be young enough for a good assembly run. Maybe getting involved in the South Placer Community for real for a decade (in Bill’s Case 15 years) and building relationships with people will give them a base from which to run.

Unfortunately, based on what I have seen from Nelson, if elected – she will do what Beth Gaines has done, get revenge on everyone that supported her opponent.

Up until these two mailers from Kiley, I figured he’d grow up given time. Dave Gilliard is an excellent political consultant, but his penchant for uber-dirty campaigns is usually fatal for a candidate that loses. Kevin Kiley is making a desperate swing to create confusion and by attacking / copycatting Pugno, Halldin and Charles Munger he is making the last-ditch effort to scorch the earth to get across the finish line.

I’ve worked many campaigns in the last 18 years and these sorts of breaks in discipline are usually a clear indicator that a campaign is on tilt.