AS of the writing of this blog, the Democrats Nationally have a 2 point registration advantage. Most all polls claim party ID is roughly Dem +4. Gallup says that 35% of Americans self-identify as Conservative versus 23% that self-identify as liberal.
Why is Rasmussen that has Trump tied 50% favorable to 50% unfavorable using a polling sample that has Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 7.5%
Why is Gallup, whose polls have consistently had Trump at a “Historically Low” number for a President this early in his term, using a Dem +10 Sample?
(Note – I have no links to Gallup and Rasmussen because both require a paid subscription to get the detailed numbers)
Why are both of the above short 5-10% of independent voters? Please note that Trump won independent voters by 8-12% points depending on which exit poll you trust.
Note that Gallup produced a Trump -10 number due to the oversampling of dems and undersampling of Republicans / Independents
This gets me to the Economist / YouGov Poll. This thing is a complete outrage. Its’ sample is 39-23 Dem vs Rep. Even with this extreme bias, they only had trump 46-49 underwater.
Quinnipiac used a 25% Republican 34% Democrat 33% Independent Sample – with the remaining 8% stating third party or refusing to state a preference. This is a qrotesque skew. That could make the sample as polluted as the Economist Poll. Please also note that Quinnipiac was a respected pollster – until they had Hillary Clinton winning Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. In all 5 cases, Quinnipiac was off by more than the margin for error. They also had Ohio and Iowa basically even despite Trump winning them both by 9.
The Marist Poll that has Trump under by 8% is worse. It is indeed the worst Sample I have ever seen.
Strong Democrats 22%
Not strong Democrats 12%
Democratic leaning independents 18%
Just Independents 8%
Republican leaning independents 14%
Not strong Republicans 9%
Strong Republicans 16%
When you include leaners – it is 52-39 in favor of the dems. Get how they did this?
Here is the bottom line – the Polling Industry will continue to lie for three very important reasons:
- They all blew the election badly with few exceptions. If they stopped being dishonest about the polling, it would be an admission of fault. Remember one of the laws of politics is to never, ever admit fault ever.
- They think that Donald Trump cares about their polling results and as such will stop with his agenda and change course.
- They believe that they can cower Republican US Senate (and other like Guv candidates) in to distancing themselves from Trump. <<< This is the main reason I believe they are doing this.
So keep it tuned here As I will continue dissecting #MUHPOLLS for the truth behind the BS.