Nov 022017
 

Some months ago, I was told of Chad Mayes saying, “Man I am so tired, I was at Bruno Mars last night…”

I suppose Chad Mayes is having a spectacular Mid-Life Crisis (google Narcissistic Rage for a clinical explanation). It has all the makings, an affair, fits of rage, a search for relevance and hearkening back to High School antics.

Now – you can join his Mid Life Crisis with the queen of Trump hate herself – Katy Perry. Nothing in politics happens by accident. Given that his staff, consultants and enablers are using social media on an almost daily basis to assert their authoritah over the rank-and-file Trump-supporting Republican base to remind them how wrong they are, you can draw no other conclusion that is a nexus for this event.

I am sure several of Chad Mayes’ enablers – see also donors, lobbyists, etc. will be there checks in hand to remind Chad of how right he was and how mean all those little people were for revolting.

If this is not enough – try this on for size. It is rumored and widely known in Sacramento that Anthony Rendon, the democrat Majority Leader (aka speaker) of the Assembly has given an order:

No credible democrat is to run against the Cap and Trade Republicans. If this is true, this is a serious boost to Marc Steinorth. It would also explain why Catherine Baker and Jordan Cunningham appear to have drawn no dem opposition. Since Rocky Chavez, Heath Flora, Devon Mathis and Chad Mayes are all in “safe” districts, a dem filing may not matter unless there are enough angry Republicans to vote for the real thing versus any of them. (Note: Devon Mathis will lose his primary to the Mayor of Viaslia, that is a prediction that we are solidifying and repeating)

With alleged polling showing every last one of these folks vulnerable to the right challenger in their area, it stands to reason why they would pledge allegiance to Rendon. It also informs us as to why Rendon has issued this edict (if indeed my two former dem legislators and one high-ranking union rep source are correct).

Then add the rumor I dropped last week about uncle moonbeam running a $5MM independent expenditure in support of the #capandtraitors and you have the full picture.

If you are part of the Cap and Trade Crew – you, too can join Chad Mayes to see Katy Perry to get away from Donald Trump, Republican Grassroots and bask in the glow of the burgeoning ecotopia known as California.

I will repeat my analogy that having Chad Mayes in Republican Leadership is like inviting Michael Jackson to your son’s slumber party. Someone is going to get violated repeatedly and given the pattern of Mr. Mayes (see also Narcissistic Rage) this pattern will continue until Gary Jeandron or Andrew Kotyuk dispatches him at the ballot box. Brian Dahle should remove him with extreme prejudice immediately and let the rest of us clean up the mess.

Oct 272017
 

The Chad Mayes rampage will have far-reaching effects for the GOP. He has been blathering to every media outlet that will listen about “New Republicans”, “New Approaches” and the other 20+ year old buzzwords often used by the platform destroyers. These public comments are de-stabilizing the already fractured and fear-riddled GOP Caucus. Chad Mayes is a bully and knows that he can get away with this sort of activity as the Assembly GOP Caucus refused to vacate the chair, preferring instead to allow Chad another two weeks as leader so he had an opportunity to retaliate even further against political foes.

Lost in all of this was Chad Mayes allowing three potentially vulnerable democrats – Jacqui Irwin (AD44), Sabrina Cervantes (AD60) and Sharon Quirk Silva (AD65) to get a free pass to duck or oppose his precious Cap and Trade bill. For this alone, Mayes should have been run out of leadership.

For reasons that elude me, Brian Dahle made Chad Mayes the Assistant leader. If this was the price for the votes that Chad Mayes still had loyal to him, perhaps Dahle should have supported Vince Fong. Having Chad Mayes on your leadership team is like inviting Michael Jackson to your son’s slumber party. Someone is going to get violated, repeatedly.

Assemblymember Devon Mathis (AD26), Marc Steinorth (AD40) and Chad Mayes (AD42) are all in serious trouble. AD26 and AD42 are considered “safe” Republican seats, but scandal and the right brand of BS from a democrat candidate could flip those seats as well.

I’ve been known to analyze political races in the past. I’ve been made aware that there are all kinds of polls running around in various areas. As a point of reference, I took several bets on Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. I had predicted that Trump would win with 300+ Electoral Votes back in August of 2016 – many know this fact.

It is my opinion that if the election were held today, a generic Republican candidate would primary defeat Devon Mathis. IF Marc Steinorth and Chad Mayes draw opponents with enough funding to get the message out, they will lose their primaries as well. Let me unpack this:

Devon Mathis’ opponent, the Mayor of Visalia, is scooping up endorsements once held by Mr. Mathis. Warren Gubler is going to unseat Devon Mathis. In 2012, an equally unpopular and unknown in her district incumbent, Beth Gaines had a serious primary opponent in Andy Pugno. Republican leadership called in $2MM in resources to save Gaines, including $1MM by former GOP Megadonor Charles Munger. Will Brian Dahle and crew do the same, pulling resources away from the targeted districts they need to get back to 27 Assemblymembers in order to save a leadership vote?

The thought process was that Andy Pugno needed to be stopped because they could not allow the precedent of an incumbent getting primaried. In the process, 4 other GOP Assemblymembers lost their seats due in no small part to the lack of resources and the GOP went under 27 (see also superminority) in 2013.

Devon Mathis’ campaign has basically legitimized the sexual assault allegations against him with the way they have botched the crisis communication. Mathis would have been in severe trouble even before that as I don’t need to see polling to know that Cap and Trade will take any Republican sell-out down 20%.

Chad Mayes, his chief of staff Joe Justin and others that were touting a poll showing Cap and Trade as a winner are about to get their comeuppance. Many are bragging about a $5MM or more independent expenditure coming in to save the Assembly GOP #capandtraitors led by none other than Governor Jerry Brown. The likelihood of that is about as accurate as this fabled poll. Why save Republican sell outs when they can be replaced with democrats? Why are Seren Taylor and Mr. Richardson still in place in the Assembly Caucus staff as it was their advice that these folks acted on with regard to supporting Cap and Trade?

These same folks are tweeting incessantly and using social media to attack President Trump and the Conservative Base of the GOP. They are so intransigent that they are indeed willing to drive the GOP down to 10-15 seats in the assembly just so that they don’t have to acknowledge that they may have been wrong on this issue and their handling of it.

This is why Chad Mayes is going to be a difficult target. His narcissism and need to be right are so deep that trying to kill him politically will be like trying to Kill Jason in Friday the 13th Part 1,247. Chad Mayes, once to political cream is applied to him will flare up again as a democrat in later elections, bank on it. He is still protesting his rightness to everyone who will listen.

Chad Mayes and Marc Steinorth have the two worst problems you can have as a Republican on the ballot, a sex scandal and a massive tax increase bill.

While the liberals within the GOP point to the “Bathroom Bill” in North Carolina as the reason Pat McCrory lost, real analysis shows that the 5% difference between McCrory and PRESIDENT Trump in North Carolina was due in part to blank Republican ballots over the massive tax increase McCrory presided over. If you don’t believe me, then switch your focus to Nevada. The GOP got slaughtered in Nevada because of GOP voter apathy over a GOP-led $2B tax increase in that state, the results were irrefutable. Cap and Trade could be 100 times that. (Note that word PRESIDENT is capitalized as a reminder to the readers that Mr. Trump is indeed the President of the United States)

But, Chad Mayes is right, just look at his social media (likely being maintained by Joe Justin) for the repeated lectures about his rightness.

Marc Steinorth is going to get defeated in 2018 as well. Unlike Mayes who is reputed to have never worn his wedding ring in Sacramento, never had a photo of his wife in his office, whose preferred partner was 41 years of age – Steinorth’s preferred partner is in her 20’s. She was also promoted once said affair is alleged to have begun. Ouch.

Take the -20 from Cap and Trade, and add -20 for the appearance of having an affair with a woman who could be your daughter and it is catastrophic.

While I personally salute Mr. Steinorth for having the temerity to call me regarding the reasons why he made that vote, all the fight and ability to face critics in the world will not save him from the wrath of the voters. As an aside, I heard mostly positive reports related to Steinorth in the capitol, until the pressure came to bear post cap and trade.

All the money that Chad Mayes is lauded for raising (which we now know is the 30 pieces of silver in return for the deals he is making) won’t save Mayes either. The only reason why Chad Mayes will run for re-election is that he is on a rampage to prove he is right. Once Mayes loses, he will leave the GOP and blame us all for his widespread trail of destruction.

Steinorth? Perhaps he retires and calls it good. Perhaps Republican leadership needs to run a poll in AD40 to learn the truth, I am going to bet if they use a polling firm (like say, Val Smith) that is not trying to rig a result (like saying Cap and Trade is a good thing), they will find out that Steinorth is underwater badly. My supposition is that Steinorth is 2-1 Unfav-Fav and his re-elect is in the 30’s. There is no way those numbers improve once the voters know about his top two negatives.

Mathis? Everyone knows he is dead on his feet – when will Republican Leadership break the news to him that he needs to pack it in? Again, run a poll. Amongst the small number that know him, he is likely 3 or 4-1 underwater. There is no way an informed universe is any better for Mathis.

Mayes? Everyone claims to know about polls that show Mayes is toast in an informed universe.

Will the Assembly GOP leadership be able to swallow the pill and cut bait? What happens if Heath Flora and Rocky Chavez draw opponents? I’d lay odds both of them are in similar trouble.

Perhaps we do need to drop to 21 seats or less in order for a lesson to be learned? Perhaps the lesson never will be learned. 20 years in this business has taught me to expect the worst and hope for the best.

Oct 232017
 

I had the privilege of helping John Cox for Governor all weekend. It was kind of like a “senior moment” for me as I had a group of grown adults that were all young enough to be my children running all over the convention doing campaign stuff for John Cox for Governor.

We accomplished several things this weekend, 1. John Cox emerged as a state leader of the Gas Tax Repeal effort being led by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Group. 2. John Cox was endorsed by the California Pro-Life Council going in to the weekend which allowed team Cox to humiliate a whisper campaign by Travis Allen. 3. Our volunteers gave Mr. Cox a larger presence than any other group or candidate present. 4. John Cox visited every sub-group he could during the course of the convention and the reports from said meetings were overwhelmingly positive. 5. John Cox was a major sponsor of the convention and as such, hosted a hospitality suite that was the hit of the convention. 6. The John Cox Campaign pulled off a Lanyard Coup.

The Lanyards were tweeted about (By Seema from the LA Times) and even got a splash in politico. It was fun to see people like Jon Huey from McClintock’s staff, Travis Allen and others replacing their lanyard with an old CAGOP lanyard because of the outstanding play made by team Cox! The weekend was filled with fun anecdotes like this and more serious ones from groups like the CRA whose paradigm was shattered when they realized John Cox was and is a substantial, viable conservative candidate for statewide office.

The feedback I got all weekend was along the lines of Cox is serious, is Travis Allen Serious. While John Cox ended a strong Saturday showing of meetings and small group presentations with the aforementioned hospitality suite – Travis Allen ended with a few college kids in a hotel room with a couple coolers full of beer. I am sure the invitations to that one were hand-written as well

This was the most lightly attended CRP Convention I had even been to. Considering I’ve been going to these for nearly 20 years, it is a scary testament to the apparent decline of the State Party. However, you can not discount the fact that Chad Mayes’ narcissistic rage and the ensuing cavalcade of bad news for other #capandtraitors led to a boycott by most legislators. I saw only 9 legislators present at various times throughout the weekend.

While my focus was on John Cox and his campaign – I did take in a few items of interest:

  1. There was a protracted argument that spanned 6 weeks over an endorsing process. The urgency of needing to resolve it forced a resolution that still puts party bosses in the driver’s seat of the process
  2. Kevin McCarthy and some of the consultants previously mentioned in blogs ran a proxy drill specifically to derail any attempt to endorse against Prop 14. The numbers of attenders at the convention were so low that they did not have enough actual attenders to carry the proxies they gathered. They succeeded in stopping any attempt to oppose the party-destroying Prop 14.
  3. Steve Bannon spoke on Friday Night. He was a sell out in 5 minutes when announced, most all there loved his presentation and the protest that occurred was pathetic, featuring roughly 50 people.
  4. At least two Capitol Staffers were tweeting incessantly on Saturday attacking the CAGOP and Steve Bannon.
  5. I saw internet sensation Mike Cernovich in the lobby on his twitter account, he did not acknowledge my attempt to address him, others or did he attempt interact with the delegates or attenders. The papers made mention of other alt-right folks present, but I did not see them.
  6. Only one party officer election was contested, a far cry from 20 years ago when they all were.
  7. I turned in my delegate badge and gave a proxy vote to a brand new CIR Member from Fountain Valley so he could participate in his first ever convention, even as said proxy drill pretty much disenfranchised him (and me) from having a voice. And, they wonder why the party leadership is shrinking.
  8. For the first time since becoming Chairman, Jim Brulte passed the gavel so he could take the floor and speak as a delegate. He delivered a passionate beat down of Mike Spence (whose position I actually agreed with) over an attempt to resurrect a gutted resolution.
  9. I welcomed George Andrews in to his role as the lead strategist on the Assembly Side for the GOP. His job is going to be a nightmare as he tries to figure out how to defend vulnerable Republicans while picking up some seats. I do believe he is equal to the role.

Assemblymember Devon Mathis went on the local media and gave a frightfully weak rebuttal to sensational charges of sexual abuse that had exploded on him two days before the convention. (see the original bombshell revelation here on the American Children First Blog) Whomever was responsible for helping Mathis deal with this problem delayed a response by three days. Then the delay when coupled with the weak rebuttal by Mr. Mathis caused a lot of buzz at the convention. At the convention, the delegates and attendees there were talking about Mathis way more than they should have been.

It appears to me that those helping Mathis think the Assemblymember will be exonerated by the Sacramento DA Investigation that got started, and thus he did not need to categorically deny the charges made. Having been attacked by political people and lawyers several times myself, I understand that it is only me that can take out my own trash. If and when Mathis is exonerated, the management of this by his campaign team will have done irreparable damage to his future.

With the avalanche of people coming forward with their own horrific stories of abuse in Sacramento on Saturday the two Republican Leaders weighed in with one of the most aggressive statements I’ve seen from the R side in a long time.

It appears we have a leader in Brian Dahle on the Assembly side as Pat Bates on the Senate side was always a solid person.

I will have more to say about the absolutely abhorrent culture in Sacramento soon as I’ve talked to a lot of female victims of the building. Some of the victims have worked for some of the most conservative members of the legislature. John Cox campaign slogan is “Clean out the Barn”. And, believe me Sacramento is full, to be continued…

Oct 012017
 

I gotta be real with you, I feel some twinges of pity on CAGOP Chairman Jim Brulte. I know he is not an innocent bystander, I mean you don’t get to be CAGOP Chair and Minority Leader in both houses from playing paddycakes.

However, I don’t think he or anyone had a real clue that the shrinking California Republican Permanent Minority was infected with swinger’s syndrome, moral bankruptcy and a complete contempt for the rank-and-file grassroots activists. I don’t think many had a clue about the depth of Chad Mayes malignant narcissism.

This is why when California Governor Candidate John Cox coined the term #CAPANDTRAITORS, it was so real.

In the process of working on the “ouster” Chad Mayes, that turned in to a lateral move within the leadership hierarchy, (In Case you missed it, Mayes is now “Assistant” leader) I learned a lot about the now former CAGOP Vice Chair Kristen Olsen. I had been convinced that she was as intransigent and narcissistic (in the clinical sense of the word, not some politically hyperbolic label) as Chad Mayes. After reading her resignation, I am still convinced of that.

The embedded picture in this post is Ms (technically still Mrs.) Olsen with her boy toy Chad Mayes. These two, who played the Christian Card to create a false image of themselves are talking at an expensive political fundraising event yesterday (9/30/2017) in Del Mar (San Diego County). Del Mar has an extremely expensive resort hotel that is a popular spot for lobbyists, “Third House” donor types, Political Consultants, Pseudo Intellects and Politicians to hob-knob. (some attenders fill multiple categories) Take note of the bottle of wine between them in order to complete the scene.

The Delmar gathering is not illegal. I am not even alleging it is unethical. It was a $1 Million fundraiser for the CAGOP, split 3 ways with the Assembly and Senate sharing in the proceeds under the “one-ask” program that Chad Mayes attempted to kill in his rampage in his final days. In order to be invited, you were required to have given at least 15K to CAGOP’s accounts for legislative races as a member or donor. The event is designed to be a gathering of big donors and big donor members of the legislature in order to generate more support for the Republican Team. There are some legislators that never get invited because they never help raise money for anyone (let alone themselves), still others decline their invitation.

Not Chad Mayes. Not Kristen Olsen. When I heard about this yesterday and saw the photo, I had become convinced that the rumors I had heard about her impending resignation were being proven false. Now that I have seen her resignation, coupled with her appearance at this event (with Chad) was all about her going out on her own terms and flipping the bird to the little people that revolted against her moral bankruptcy and behavior.

Unlike Chad Mayes, who had some significant leverage (namely 6 leadership votes that were going nowhere) and was able to negotiate a sweetheart deal with Current Minority Leader Brian Dahle to get all the best committee assignments and a nice title to assuage his bruised ego over the grassroots revolt against him, Kristen Olsen is gone completely from the CRP. Kristen’s last consequential act as a CRP officer was voting against the CRP’s resolution calling on Chad Mayes to resign as leader, a brazenly unethical act. She should have abstained for an obvious conflict of interest and did not.

Then there is her resignation email. I cut the middle two paragraphs out and pasted them below:

California desperately needs a viable Republican Party, and maintaining the status quo will not get us there. We must be committed to building a bigger tent and articulating an optimistic message that resonates in diverse communities across the state.  Our principles of freedom, opportunity and limited government are timeless. Our challenge is to define and apply them for a changing California.

Given the challenges before the Party, it is essential that we have officers who can fully commit to their volunteer positions. For both personal and professional reasons, I no longer have sufficient time to do so. As a county supervisor, I have been working on important and time-consuming issues. As a single mom, two of my three kids are now teenagers whose busy schedules often conflict with CRP activities. As a consultant, I am growing a new business and must dedicate more time to clients and provide for my family.

Allow me to translate paragraph one. “I slaughtered all the old line conservatives out of the caucus staff, forcing some with 30 years of service out of their jobs so I could bring in left-wing climate change freaks in for policy advisers. I re-made the Assembly Caucus staff in to my own image in order to create a new Republican Party few recognize both because its’ values are not Republican and because my leadership decisions helped people lose their elections”

Allow me to translate paragraph two. “I have more important things to do than deal with the unwashed masses of grassroots activists who object to me sleeping with another woman’s husband. I owe no one an explanation for my personal decisions and am moving on to another self-enriching endeavor”

The timing of the resignation, in my opinion was influenced greatly by a resolution being carried by Arthur Schaper and his merry band of political torch-wielding #MAGA warriors. Actions like these pile up and aggregate.

When Olsen was coming up through the political ranks, she was hard-core pro-life. That amongst a lot of other lifelong moral stances were discarded once she got in to office as her focus became on herself and what was expedient to continue her ascension. Once she had discarded her core values, the next logical step was discarding her values as it relates to her life decisions. The voters of Stanislaus County need to vote her out of office with extreme prejudice, because like Chad Mayes, Ms. Olsen is dangerous to everyone around her as long as her behavior continues the way it is.

Lastly, there were several “Third House” and political insider types that were trying to keep her in place by convincing her that they could raise money and support for her. Their efforts only prolonged the agony. Those of us that want real change in our leaders need to be vigilant and start tracking these people and what they are attempting to do under cover of Darkness. Kristen Olsen only resigned because the real people of the Republican Party finally unified long enough to make the arrogant moneyed elite realize that they were rendered powerless and needed to regroup. (see also things like Arthur Schaper’s resolution as one example of the insurrection)

Congratulations to the grassroots, because unlike the pyrric Chad Mayes victory, the Grassroots were able to win this one decisively.

Bonus: Kristen Olsen was a #nevertrumper and let her true colors show in a recent tweet

Sep 292017
 

I spend an hour or more a day collecting all sorts of news articles, some of which I aggregate in to posts on this blog.

I look at what the Trump Administration is accomplishing and it is astounding.

In the backdrop of this is the attempted assassination of a Member of Congress (which you did not hear much about a few days after it happened), the corruption trial of a Democrat Senator (which would be headline news were it a Republican), and three (!) Major Hurricane Disasters.

What do you hear? Trump is a racist and hair splitting criticism of everything related to disaster #3, because Texas and Florida were handled so well. This what the media is reduced to, trying to create something from nothing. (see also the Russia did it lie investigation)

More frustrating are Republicans like those in California who are rooting for President Trump to fail. Even people in the faith community jumped on the Trump is a racist lie over Charlottesville.

There is something to consider – President Trump will do no worse with minorities. The goal of the media is apparently to try and fracture the President’s base.

President Trump has appointed a slew of Conservative Judges. Some have so deeply disturbed the democrats that they have attacked several nominees for their faith. For the first time in a generation, the Department of Justice has intervened on behalf of Churches and/or Christians targeted by the Social Justice Warrior industry.

The truth of what America thinks comes out in anecdotes. The NFL decided to fight back against President Trump’s criticism of their ill-advised take a knee protests. AS a result, the NFL players doubled down and did it en masse. Almost immediately, the results started pouring in – ticket sales dropped 17.9% almost immediately, almost immediate 10% drop in ratings and so many people cancelling subscriptions to the NFL channel that several cable / satellite providers were allowing unprecedented refunds. National companies have pulled their ads and a host of players have lost endorsement deals.

Yet, we are being told that America is divided.

No – President Trump is the first Republican in anyone’s lifetime that is fighting the culture war. Neither Bush did it. Reagan sorta did it. Ford and Nixon were squishes.

President Trump is the first President since Ronald Reagan that is pushing back against his critics, which explains why the media is in a meltdown.

It is not President Trump’s fault there is a culture war. But he is railed as a racist for fighting it. It is not President Trump’s fault the media have been allowed to be completely one-sided.

I will finish this rant with some thoughts on immigration. Uncontrolled immigration, and I mean specifically, illegal immigration have been changing the demographics of this country. The left have fought to try and separate the immigrants from society in order to control them and keep them voting democrat. It is this nexus that is 100% of the reason why the left will fight with everything they have in order to try and stop any efforts to re-establish strong borders.

During the Obama administration, refugees were largely (as in over half) Muslim. Christians were selected against. Refugees were settled in swing states primarily as well. It is clear that they were being used to achieve a political end.

The democrats have maxed out their race card to the point where they are basically powerless to do anything other than use procedural roadblocks. Already, the border patrol is reporting drops in illegal crossings and the flow of refugees has been cut to a fraction of what it was.

Pay attention to President Trump fighting for Christians, American Citizens and our values. Pay attention to the American Left and their lackeys in the media calling him a racist incessantly.

Apparently, some of my friends in the California Republican Party live in mortal fear of this dynamic. Apparently, 25.6% registration is too high for them.