Nov 052017

What a mess – “Men” at all levels of government and political leadership.

Bob Filner, as chronicled by CNN of all places: Filner is a former dem congressman and dem mayor of San Diego.

Former San Diego Mayor Bob Filner was sentenced Monday to 90 days in home confinement, three years’ probation, and a series of fines totaling about $1,500 for assaulting three women while in office.

The 71-year-old pleaded guilty in October to forcibly kissing or grabbing three women at campaign events or at City Hall — one a felony false imprisonment charge, the other two misdemeanor battery charges. Filner entered the guilty plea under a deal with prosecutors.

Please note that John Cox – whom I am helping with his Governor race provided the seed money to recall Bob Filner from office.

Filner can’t be the only politician with a trail like this: 13 women went on the record against him. And unlike the liars that accused President Trump, there was actually a prosecution. Unlike President Trump who has lit up his accusers, even causing one of them to double down with a lawsuit, Filner folded like a cheap lawnchair.

Democrat Assemblyman Raul Bocanegra? You’ll love this, he got establishment support and endorsements from people who knew what he did:

More than a half dozen sitting lawmakers gave money to his 2012 campaign for the Assembly, including then-Assemblyman Isadore Hall who served on the rules committee during the investigation, and Padilla, who by then had been elected to the state Senate. He was endorsed by the California Democratic Party. Bocanegra even won the endorsement of Sen. Ron Calderon – the victim’s boss, who she said knew about the groping incident when it occurred.

The victim, who filed a complaint with the Assembly Rules Committee, said Bocanegra’s behavior was widely known in Capitol circles at the time. The Assembly investigators interviewed 15 people in probing the complaint of Elise Flynn Gyore, now a chief of staff in the Senate, that Bocanegra stalked her like a predator around a downtown Sacramento club and grabbed her underneath her clothes in 2009.

That’s awesome, huh? I’ve heard about at least 3 more members of the legislature whose forays may come out in to the open. I wonder how many complaints the rules committee gets?

I’ve heard that Democrat Senate Majority Leader Kevin DeLeon is no saint himself and may well have some explaining to do of his own. It suggests that the recent move to hire investigators to review harassment claims may well be a cover up similar to Robert Mueller’s Russia Did it BS investigation in light of Fusion GPS and the Uranium One Scandal.


Oct 272017

The Chad Mayes rampage will have far-reaching effects for the GOP. He has been blathering to every media outlet that will listen about “New Republicans”, “New Approaches” and the other 20+ year old buzzwords often used by the platform destroyers. These public comments are de-stabilizing the already fractured and fear-riddled GOP Caucus. Chad Mayes is a bully and knows that he can get away with this sort of activity as the Assembly GOP Caucus refused to vacate the chair, preferring instead to allow Chad another two weeks as leader so he had an opportunity to retaliate even further against political foes.

Lost in all of this was Chad Mayes allowing three potentially vulnerable democrats – Jacqui Irwin (AD44), Sabrina Cervantes (AD60) and Sharon Quirk Silva (AD65) to get a free pass to duck or oppose his precious Cap and Trade bill. For this alone, Mayes should have been run out of leadership.

For reasons that elude me, Brian Dahle made Chad Mayes the Assistant leader. If this was the price for the votes that Chad Mayes still had loyal to him, perhaps Dahle should have supported Vince Fong. Having Chad Mayes on your leadership team is like inviting Michael Jackson to your son’s slumber party. Someone is going to get violated, repeatedly.

Assemblymember Devon Mathis (AD26), Marc Steinorth (AD40) and Chad Mayes (AD42) are all in serious trouble. AD26 and AD42 are considered “safe” Republican seats, but scandal and the right brand of BS from a democrat candidate could flip those seats as well.

I’ve been known to analyze political races in the past. I’ve been made aware that there are all kinds of polls running around in various areas. As a point of reference, I took several bets on Donald Trump’s victory in 2016. I had predicted that Trump would win with 300+ Electoral Votes back in August of 2016 – many know this fact.

It is my opinion that if the election were held today, a generic Republican candidate would primary defeat Devon Mathis. IF Marc Steinorth and Chad Mayes draw opponents with enough funding to get the message out, they will lose their primaries as well. Let me unpack this:

Devon Mathis’ opponent, the Mayor of Visalia, is scooping up endorsements once held by Mr. Mathis. Warren Gubler is going to unseat Devon Mathis. In 2012, an equally unpopular and unknown in her district incumbent, Beth Gaines had a serious primary opponent in Andy Pugno. Republican leadership called in $2MM in resources to save Gaines, including $1MM by former GOP Megadonor Charles Munger. Will Brian Dahle and crew do the same, pulling resources away from the targeted districts they need to get back to 27 Assemblymembers in order to save a leadership vote?

The thought process was that Andy Pugno needed to be stopped because they could not allow the precedent of an incumbent getting primaried. In the process, 4 other GOP Assemblymembers lost their seats due in no small part to the lack of resources and the GOP went under 27 (see also superminority) in 2013.

Devon Mathis’ campaign has basically legitimized the sexual assault allegations against him with the way they have botched the crisis communication. Mathis would have been in severe trouble even before that as I don’t need to see polling to know that Cap and Trade will take any Republican sell-out down 20%.

Chad Mayes, his chief of staff Joe Justin and others that were touting a poll showing Cap and Trade as a winner are about to get their comeuppance. Many are bragging about a $5MM or more independent expenditure coming in to save the Assembly GOP #capandtraitors led by none other than Governor Jerry Brown. The likelihood of that is about as accurate as this fabled poll. Why save Republican sell outs when they can be replaced with democrats? Why are Seren Taylor and Mr. Richardson still in place in the Assembly Caucus staff as it was their advice that these folks acted on with regard to supporting Cap and Trade?

These same folks are tweeting incessantly and using social media to attack President Trump and the Conservative Base of the GOP. They are so intransigent that they are indeed willing to drive the GOP down to 10-15 seats in the assembly just so that they don’t have to acknowledge that they may have been wrong on this issue and their handling of it.

This is why Chad Mayes is going to be a difficult target. His narcissism and need to be right are so deep that trying to kill him politically will be like trying to Kill Jason in Friday the 13th Part 1,247. Chad Mayes, once to political cream is applied to him will flare up again as a democrat in later elections, bank on it. He is still protesting his rightness to everyone who will listen.

Chad Mayes and Marc Steinorth have the two worst problems you can have as a Republican on the ballot, a sex scandal and a massive tax increase bill.

While the liberals within the GOP point to the “Bathroom Bill” in North Carolina as the reason Pat McCrory lost, real analysis shows that the 5% difference between McCrory and PRESIDENT Trump in North Carolina was due in part to blank Republican ballots over the massive tax increase McCrory presided over. If you don’t believe me, then switch your focus to Nevada. The GOP got slaughtered in Nevada because of GOP voter apathy over a GOP-led $2B tax increase in that state, the results were irrefutable. Cap and Trade could be 100 times that. (Note that word PRESIDENT is capitalized as a reminder to the readers that Mr. Trump is indeed the President of the United States)

But, Chad Mayes is right, just look at his social media (likely being maintained by Joe Justin) for the repeated lectures about his rightness.

Marc Steinorth is going to get defeated in 2018 as well. Unlike Mayes who is reputed to have never worn his wedding ring in Sacramento, never had a photo of his wife in his office, whose preferred partner was 41 years of age – Steinorth’s preferred partner is in her 20’s. She was also promoted once said affair is alleged to have begun. Ouch.

Take the -20 from Cap and Trade, and add -20 for the appearance of having an affair with a woman who could be your daughter and it is catastrophic.

While I personally salute Mr. Steinorth for having the temerity to call me regarding the reasons why he made that vote, all the fight and ability to face critics in the world will not save him from the wrath of the voters. As an aside, I heard mostly positive reports related to Steinorth in the capitol, until the pressure came to bear post cap and trade.

All the money that Chad Mayes is lauded for raising (which we now know is the 30 pieces of silver in return for the deals he is making) won’t save Mayes either. The only reason why Chad Mayes will run for re-election is that he is on a rampage to prove he is right. Once Mayes loses, he will leave the GOP and blame us all for his widespread trail of destruction.

Steinorth? Perhaps he retires and calls it good. Perhaps Republican leadership needs to run a poll in AD40 to learn the truth, I am going to bet if they use a polling firm (like say, Val Smith) that is not trying to rig a result (like saying Cap and Trade is a good thing), they will find out that Steinorth is underwater badly. My supposition is that Steinorth is 2-1 Unfav-Fav and his re-elect is in the 30’s. There is no way those numbers improve once the voters know about his top two negatives.

Mathis? Everyone knows he is dead on his feet – when will Republican Leadership break the news to him that he needs to pack it in? Again, run a poll. Amongst the small number that know him, he is likely 3 or 4-1 underwater. There is no way an informed universe is any better for Mathis.

Mayes? Everyone claims to know about polls that show Mayes is toast in an informed universe.

Will the Assembly GOP leadership be able to swallow the pill and cut bait? What happens if Heath Flora and Rocky Chavez draw opponents? I’d lay odds both of them are in similar trouble.

Perhaps we do need to drop to 21 seats or less in order for a lesson to be learned? Perhaps the lesson never will be learned. 20 years in this business has taught me to expect the worst and hope for the best.

Oct 242017

Google Narcissistic Personality Disorder and then compare it to Chad Mayes’ behavior once he orchestrated the Cap and Trade debacle. He is following a classic pattern.

Greg Wallis – who works for Chad Mayes is featured here tweeting criticism of Kevin McCarthy. Yes, Wallis (Mayes Staff) is slamming the moderate Republican icon for saying “My advice for Assembly members in Sacramento: You will not win the majority by thinking you can be Democrat lite” . This was the most used quote in the drive-by media from McCarthy’s speech at the CAGOP.

Apparenly, Mayes and his minions were triggered yet again. Young Mr. Wallis decided to reference the sliding republican numbers in office as a counter argument, suggesting that only Chad Mayes and selling out on Cap and Trade, Abortion, Taxes, Spending, Bonds, Bullet Trains and the like is the way to the electoral promised land for the California GOP.

Narcissists are constitutionally incapable of seeing their own faults. They are unable to comprehend when they are wrong. Chad Mayes truly believes that everyone else is wrong and is in the middle of what I have described as a Narcissistic Rage.

His temper tantrum was made worse as the fractured and petrified Assembly Republican Caucus could not muster the courage to expel him from leadership. Currently Mayes sits as “assistant leader” in the CAGOP Caucus. This has probably reinforced in Mr. Mayes mind how right he is. You can not deal with a true narcissist, you have to run them over with a truck (figuratively) and literally eviscerate them. That requires courage.

Mayes for his part has been tweeting incessant criticism of everything Republican since his reign of terror as Republican Leader ended two weeks later than it should have. He attempted to decimate fundraising agreements, shoved Assembly member Melissa Melendez in to the doghouse, stripped others of committee assignments and the like. While the drama of his ouster was unfolding, he was bullying people at events, yelling at others on the phone while raising tons of money from his real masters in the California Swamp.

Now that Mayes has gotten his 500,000 pieces of silver, he is repaying everyone for their loyalty by talking openly about running for Governor. The money he raised was for Assembly, the donors wanted him there to continue voting for their tax increases, corporate welfare and the like.

Note the timing of the story from Mayes, Friday. This was the start of the CAGOP Convention. There were a hail of tweets from disgruntled staffers over the course of the weekend attacking Steve Bannon, the CAGOP and others.

I received a call yesterday from a very well sourced political consultant friend that Chad Mayes has retained an out of state consultant to run his Governor Campaign. The individual had never heard of the consultant and did not write down the name.

That said, the pattern is consistent – Mayes is hellbent to be right. He reminds me of Tom Hudson. Mayes will destroy himself and everyone else around him in his rage over the deep-seeded sense of violation he is feeling.

I had told several people I did not think Chad Mayes would stay a Republican. He won’t. Even though Joe Justin runs Chad’s social media himself, Joe’s posts on behalf of Chad are accurate representations of Chad’s view of the world. The above article from Capitol Public Radio should be a further entree in to the mind of Mayes.

If you track the political “development” of Nathan Fletcher in San Diego (ironically, he spoke at the SD County Dem Convention this past weekend), they are tracking similarly. Both had affairs with Assembly members as an added bonus. While Chad Mayes’ flame-out has been more widespread – the basic building blocks of a self-centered political metamorphosis are there.

Mayes will run for Governor because he knows he will lose AD42, then he will blame the GOP for his defeat(s) and will thusly leave the GOP. His rampage won’t stop at trying to split GOP Votes to help John Chiang or Antonio Suave in to the runoff against Gay Marriage Gavin, he will find other offices to run for as a democrat in later cycles.

Chad Mayes has basically abandoned his partners in #CapandTrade, Marc Steinorth and Devon Mathis, both of whom are in serious political trouble. Again, following the pattern, Chad is looking out for Chad and must not believe the rumored $5MM+ independent expenditure to support the 6 traitors on the ballot in 2018 is not real.

Oct 232017

I had the privilege of helping John Cox for Governor all weekend. It was kind of like a “senior moment” for me as I had a group of grown adults that were all young enough to be my children running all over the convention doing campaign stuff for John Cox for Governor.

We accomplished several things this weekend, 1. John Cox emerged as a state leader of the Gas Tax Repeal effort being led by the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Group. 2. John Cox was endorsed by the California Pro-Life Council going in to the weekend which allowed team Cox to humiliate a whisper campaign by Travis Allen. 3. Our volunteers gave Mr. Cox a larger presence than any other group or candidate present. 4. John Cox visited every sub-group he could during the course of the convention and the reports from said meetings were overwhelmingly positive. 5. John Cox was a major sponsor of the convention and as such, hosted a hospitality suite that was the hit of the convention. 6. The John Cox Campaign pulled off a Lanyard Coup.

The Lanyards were tweeted about (By Seema from the LA Times) and even got a splash in politico. It was fun to see people like Jon Huey from McClintock’s staff, Travis Allen and others replacing their lanyard with an old CAGOP lanyard because of the outstanding play made by team Cox! The weekend was filled with fun anecdotes like this and more serious ones from groups like the CRA whose paradigm was shattered when they realized John Cox was and is a substantial, viable conservative candidate for statewide office.

The feedback I got all weekend was along the lines of Cox is serious, is Travis Allen Serious. While John Cox ended a strong Saturday showing of meetings and small group presentations with the aforementioned hospitality suite – Travis Allen ended with a few college kids in a hotel room with a couple coolers full of beer. I am sure the invitations to that one were hand-written as well

This was the most lightly attended CRP Convention I had even been to. Considering I’ve been going to these for nearly 20 years, it is a scary testament to the apparent decline of the State Party. However, you can not discount the fact that Chad Mayes’ narcissistic rage and the ensuing cavalcade of bad news for other #capandtraitors led to a boycott by most legislators. I saw only 9 legislators present at various times throughout the weekend.

While my focus was on John Cox and his campaign – I did take in a few items of interest:

  1. There was a protracted argument that spanned 6 weeks over an endorsing process. The urgency of needing to resolve it forced a resolution that still puts party bosses in the driver’s seat of the process
  2. Kevin McCarthy and some of the consultants previously mentioned in blogs ran a proxy drill specifically to derail any attempt to endorse against Prop 14. The numbers of attenders at the convention were so low that they did not have enough actual attenders to carry the proxies they gathered. They succeeded in stopping any attempt to oppose the party-destroying Prop 14.
  3. Steve Bannon spoke on Friday Night. He was a sell out in 5 minutes when announced, most all there loved his presentation and the protest that occurred was pathetic, featuring roughly 50 people.
  4. At least two Capitol Staffers were tweeting incessantly on Saturday attacking the CAGOP and Steve Bannon.
  5. I saw internet sensation Mike Cernovich in the lobby on his twitter account, he did not acknowledge my attempt to address him, others or did he attempt interact with the delegates or attenders. The papers made mention of other alt-right folks present, but I did not see them.
  6. Only one party officer election was contested, a far cry from 20 years ago when they all were.
  7. I turned in my delegate badge and gave a proxy vote to a brand new CIR Member from Fountain Valley so he could participate in his first ever convention, even as said proxy drill pretty much disenfranchised him (and me) from having a voice. And, they wonder why the party leadership is shrinking.
  8. For the first time since becoming Chairman, Jim Brulte passed the gavel so he could take the floor and speak as a delegate. He delivered a passionate beat down of Mike Spence (whose position I actually agreed with) over an attempt to resurrect a gutted resolution.
  9. I welcomed George Andrews in to his role as the lead strategist on the Assembly Side for the GOP. His job is going to be a nightmare as he tries to figure out how to defend vulnerable Republicans while picking up some seats. I do believe he is equal to the role.

Assemblymember Devon Mathis went on the local media and gave a frightfully weak rebuttal to sensational charges of sexual abuse that had exploded on him two days before the convention. (see the original bombshell revelation here on the American Children First Blog) Whomever was responsible for helping Mathis deal with this problem delayed a response by three days. Then the delay when coupled with the weak rebuttal by Mr. Mathis caused a lot of buzz at the convention. At the convention, the delegates and attendees there were talking about Mathis way more than they should have been.

It appears to me that those helping Mathis think the Assemblymember will be exonerated by the Sacramento DA Investigation that got started, and thus he did not need to categorically deny the charges made. Having been attacked by political people and lawyers several times myself, I understand that it is only me that can take out my own trash. If and when Mathis is exonerated, the management of this by his campaign team will have done irreparable damage to his future.

With the avalanche of people coming forward with their own horrific stories of abuse in Sacramento on Saturday the two Republican Leaders weighed in with one of the most aggressive statements I’ve seen from the R side in a long time.

It appears we have a leader in Brian Dahle on the Assembly side as Pat Bates on the Senate side was always a solid person.

I will have more to say about the absolutely abhorrent culture in Sacramento soon as I’ve talked to a lot of female victims of the building. Some of the victims have worked for some of the most conservative members of the legislature. John Cox campaign slogan is “Clean out the Barn”. And, believe me Sacramento is full, to be continued…

Oct 212017

Did you know that Travis Allen is having a volunteer meeting?

This is a candidate for Governor in California. This is an official invite from his campaign to a volunteer reception.

Please further note that I went looking for pre-printed flyers for the event, I could not find any.

While I did see an event on his Facebook Page (changed to “Travis Allen” post FPPC Complaint), there were no emails that I am aware of either.

But – if you show up to the convention, you can buy A nice T-Shirt!

When a candidate says they are running a grassroots campaign it usually means they are broke and won’t be able to get off the starting blocks. When hand-written invitations to campaign events are the M.O. this is like advertising it.

Worse for Mr. Allen are several anecdotal reports indicating that he has not acquitted himself well with a number of people here from all walks of the CA GOP coalition. Ouch.