Diana Ruslin Mailer #2 Last one in Race and Solid Offering + my prediction for Rocklin Outcomes.

 Diana Ruslin, Greg Janda, Howard Rudd, Rocklin, Rocklin City Council Race, Scott Yuill, Sierra College Board Race  Comments Off on Diana Ruslin Mailer #2 Last one in Race and Solid Offering + my prediction for Rocklin Outcomes.
Oct 312010
 

Diana Ruslin Mailer #2 is better than mailer #1 for a couple of reasons:

1. It does not have a long endorsement list on it. Greg Janda’s second mailer still did. In this election where people are looking for the “establishment” and the “boogie man”… that could be a huge difference.

2. It was smaller. Smaller is good. Both of Janda’s Mailers were the 6 1/2 X11 and Diana’s Mailer #2 was in this format as well.

I still think Diana Ruslin Wins. This Mailer gets an 8.0 for an A-. The reason – it replaced the endorsement list with a resume’ a very, very smart move.

I also believe that Greg Janda could knock off Scott Yuill – which was not the intention of the folks that recruited Janda.

Janda raised a lot of Money. So did Scott Yuill.

Scott is an incumbent. Janda is not.

All of them visited my house – but the reason why Diana Ruslin will finish first is that her people were knocking and talking to all the houses they visited. I have that confirmed by several. Ruslin has also knocked on more doors than all the rest of the candidates combined.

In my home precinct – there are Four Diana Ruslin Yard Signs, and One Scott Yuill Yard Sign (The one in my front yard). No Janda signs at all.

I have endorsed Scott Yuill and will be voting for him on Tuesday along with Diana.

The reason Greg could beat Scott rests with Mark Klang. I have friends convinced that Klang has done the work necessary – I am also aware that Klang has walked a ton of precincts (knocking and talking).

People dismiss Mark Klang way too fast in every election – Klang is a hell of a campaigner.

Every vote Mark Klang gets takes a vote from Scott Yuill in my opinion.

In the end I think that Diana Ruslin finishes first, Yuill and Janda will be in a photo finish for second…

… but do not be suprised if Mark Klang makes a really strong showing. I mean strong.

Rocklin School Board?

Steve Paul finishes fourth.

The evidence? People have tried to roll out the fact that Amanda Tingler went to Obama’s inaguration – they forget that she got the tickets from Tom McClintock to do so.

The late mailer sent by the three incumbents – while I loved it and thought it was great – indetified them as incumbents, guaranteeing that one of them will lose.

The recent spate of sign destruction and the fact that the incumbents bought the California Voter guide slate mailer late shows they were caught flat-footed and did not take Tingler seriously.

Finally – the late hit peice put in the Rocklin Cat Pan Liner (aka the Placer Herald) in the final indicator that Both Amanda and Glenn Moeller got traction.

The communist left-wing Democrat Alex Ferriera will win re-election as his buddies spent about $10K on his behalf.

Cari Dawson Bartley wins her race for Sierra College Board

Howard Rudd wins his race for Sierra College Board as he spent $10k of his own money over Kelli Gnile whose campaign was effective and grassroots… but not enough to compete with Rudd’s Money and connections.

Let’s see how many of these I got right?

Sample Ballot Review – Rocklin Edition Plus Election Predictions

 AB32 Suspension, Diana Ruslin, Greg Janda, Howard Rudd, PCWA Race, Placer County Republican Party, Prop 23, Prop 25, Rocklin City Council Race, Scott Yuill  1 Response »
Oct 022010
 

I am going to make some predictions based on the Sample Ballot.

There are some issues with ballot designations – especially with the irrational rage of (especially Republican) voters toward incumbents.

Ignoring the state-wide offices – the nominee for the WORST ballot designation is the hapless opponent of Doug LaMalfa: Lathe Gill.

Gill’s Ballot Designation: Union Organizer / Lawyer. (Idiot)

That will add about 5% to LaMalfa’s margin of victory.

Sierra College Board D1 – Howard Rudd and Kelli Gnile both had solid ballot statements and effectively the same ballot designation: Small Business Owner for Rudd and Small Businesswoman for Gnile.

Rudd has an advantage because of his connections and being first on the Ballot in Placer.

Sierra College Board D5 – Another Nominee for worst ballot designation is Halfway House dweller Thomas Gardner: College Student.

Cari Dawson Bartley is the only candidate who filed a ballot statement as well.

I’d be completely shocked if Bartley did not win.

Rocklin USD

Amanda “Mandie” Tingler – first on ballot, designation Family Counselor… very good for School Board.

The Incumbents all used “Rocklin Unified School District Trustee” for their ballot designation. Whoops.

If it wasn’t for the fact that Glenn Moeller has the worst ballot statement this side of Michael Patrick Murphy… Moeller might have won a seat as well.

Despite all the mistakes Moeller has made – he may yet win. But, I predict that Mandy Tingler wins at Steve Paul’s expense as Paul is number 4 on the five-person ballot. (4 is the absolute worst)

Rocklin City Council.

Diana Ruslin. Second on the ballot, un-matched energy… no one else even comes close. Her ballot title of Rocklin Recreation Commissioner is the only negative as it implies incumbency.

Scott Yuill is in trouble – he is an incumbent and writing bluntly – it seems that the primary concern of Rocklin’s angry Republican voters is finding someone to lynch. Anecdotes I am getting from those on the campaign trail indicate as such. People keep asking door-knockers if they are an incumbent. (I could go on a rant about how ridiculous that is… but some other time)

That being said – Yuill is an excellent candidate and his ballot title of Business Owner/Councilmember is the best he could do. He will have the resources to get his message out and he has won the sign war up to this point.

Greg Janda is also a strong candidate – but have not seen the level of engagement from him that Yuill and Ruslin have engaged in.

Which leads to Mark Klang – excellent ballot statement (no one can match his military service) and he is tapping in to the angry voter. Will that anger and will enough people read his emails to make a difference?

My prediction – Ruslin Wins. I haven’t a clue who finishes second.

Honorable Mention – Michael Patrick Murphy. He gets the prize for the WORST ballot statement I have ever seen. He got tossed out of the Libertarian Party for pete’s sake.

SPMUD Ward 3 – George William Romonsky, Republican Challenger. He filed a ballot statement, but it was weak, however his…

Democrat Opponent John R Murdock used “Incumbent”.  (and did not file a ballot statement) He gets the prize for the worst Ballot Designation – a career ender.

Romonsky wins.

PCWA District 2

Left-wing Democrat Fossil Alex Ferriera has too many friends and too many people that fund his campaign and run his campaign for him to be vulnerable to all but the most formidable challenger. Alex used Placer County Water Agency Director… incumbent in so many words.

Republican Challenger Claire Magid used Small Business Owner – the best designation possible. (I’m voting for Claire)

But, that won’t be enough.

Propositions?

Prop 20 will pass – due to voter anger. This takes drawing Congressional District Boundaries and adds them to the Prop 11 commission. (I am voting yes)

Prop 23 is too close to call – will the enviros be able to lie enough to save their holy grail? Amazing how people advocating clean, simple living seem to come up with wads of money? (I am voting Yes)

Prop 26 – makes it take 2/3 to raise fees. I wish this one would pass, the unions are spending a king’s ransom to defeat this and to try to pass prop 25.  (I am voting yes on 26)

Prop 25 – an extremely deceptive measure aimed at allowing simple majority budgets. This will fail as the veil of fraud is being stripped away. (I am voting no) But, I think Prop 26 goes down with Prop 25.

Right On Daily Makes two New Endorsements in Local Races

 Gray Allen, Howard Rudd, PCWA Race, Sierra College Board Race  Comments Off on Right On Daily Makes two New Endorsements in Local Races
Sep 212010
 

Placer County Water Agency District One – Gray Allen.

Gray called this weekend and volunteered to walk precincts for Linda’s (my Mother’s) campaign. Beyond that, I had a chance to speak with him at length about the PCWA and was satisfied with his answers to a slew of questions I asked him.

Gray Allen is no RINO.

Please note that the PCRA endorsed Ken Phillips as did the Placer GOP Cent Com – and I am a member of both of their boards of directors who endorsed unanimously.

Sierra College Board – Howard Rudd.

Again note, that the PCRA and the Placer GOP Cent Com endorsed Kelli Gnile – and I am a member of both of their boards of directors who endorsed unanimously.

I wrote previously about Howard and the 13 years that I have known him. Sierra College Wins no matter whether Kelli Gnile or Howard Rudd is elected.

Again, Howard Rudd is a Conservative.

Political Notebook 9/9/2010 – Roseville CC, Rocklin CC, AD-05, SD-01, Sierra College, RJUHSD Notes

 5th Assembly District Race, Andy Pugno, CA SD-01 Race, David Larson, Diana Ruslin, Greg Janda, Howard Rudd, Kirk Uhler, Linda M Park, Placer County Local Elections, Placer County Republican Party, Rocklin City Council Race, Roger Niello, Roseville City Council 2010, Roseville Joint Union High School District Race, Sam Cannon, Scott Huber, SD-01 Race, Sierra College Board Race, Ted Gaines, Tim Herman  1 Response »
Sep 092010
 

Sierra College Trustee Candidate Howard Rudd has been using his connections developed over years in business and years of goodwill created to gain critical mass.

This blogger has been contacted by two local elected officials who have endorsed Howard Rudd.

Rudd was at the Rocklin Chamber of Commerce Breakfast and was well received. Rudd told this blogger that the response to his candidacy has been “excellent”. He went on to indicate that he has operations going in Nevada County – an area often overlooked by Sierra College Board candidates.

Rocklin City Council Race Update –

Diana Ruslin’s “Mom’s Army” have been out in force. She is the only candidate who has visited my home. According to Ruslin, her people have been walking the “high-propensity” areas of Rocklin for two weeks.

Ruslin and Janda were also in attendance at this morning’s meeting of the Rocklin Chamber of Commerce.

Greg Janda is looking like a confident candidate with his talking points down cold. He is speaking with authority.

Janda and Ruslin offer contrasts in their presentation. It remains to be seen if the Community servant / Mom (Ruslin) or the confident businessman (Janda) will sell better.

Heck, they could both win and that would leave Mayor Scott Yuill out after one term.

(and don’t forget Mark Klang is on the ballot too)

Roseville City Council Candidate Sam Cannon is ramping up his campaign. to the surprise of many – being trapped in the capitol for this years’ legislative shenanigans has not cost Sam Cannon much. So much for the concerns over Cannon being “MIA”.

The general feeling on the street is that the race is between Sam Cannon and Tim Herman for seat number two. (Everyone believes that Susan Rohan will be elected mayor in a runaway)

This means that the fireworks could fly between the Cannon and Herman camp.

What about David Larson? He flunked his Dale Carnegie courses and his attempts to downplay his marriage to Brad have backfired. His Marriage is a hot topic of discussion in Sun City. The Dem Central Committee has endorsed him – but are doing precious little to help him.

Here are the issues – Tim Herman will point out his superior resume and Sam Cannon will point out that Tim Herman is a Liberal. ’nuff said.

Roseville Joint Union High School District Race – Both Linda M Park and Scott Huber have racked up impressive endorsement lists. Both will begin their campaign operations this weekend with volunteers walking precincts.

Expect to see lawn signs popping up all over the place.

Linda scored a major coup when her long time friend – Gina Garbolino endorsed her. On the heels of DA Scott Owens and Assessor Kristen Spears… Assemblymembers Ted Gaines and Dan Logue give Linda credibility and diversity in her support base.

The SD-01 Race is abuzz in this area. Everyone in insider circles is talking about it. Most in Placer are supporting Ted Gaines.

AD-05 Update: The SEIU just spent $75K on an IE to prop up Richard Pan. If you see Richard Pan in person, you’ll understand why the SEIU likes him… he can’t finish a sentence.