When there are big, public and messy fights in politics – I always ask who has what at stake and how big are the egos. I learned to my horror that Chad Mayes may have no equal in the ego department, at least in the sad shrinking GOP world in California.
While Assemblymembers (like Jay Obernolte and Kevin Kiley) are trying to raise money and recruit opponents to democrats, we have the underlying issue of a class of Republicans who refuse to get it.
Joe Justin is Chad Mayes Chief of Staff. He is a fantastic political operative and consultant. For as good as he is with campaigns, he is horrific with policy.
Joe is seen here posting a Mercury news article highlighting how the GOP punted before the last recess of the session as some sort of sign that his Narcissistic boss was going to live another day. The comment about keyboard cowboys is actually hysterical and sad at the same time when you pick it apart.
On one hand, he is correct about the hundreds of so-called activists that can’t get off Facebook long enough to get anything done. On the other hand, he is showing elitist contempt for the rank and file. Only someone down in the trenches should cast dispersion like this, not someone with $130K+ in salary and benefits off of the back of the taxpayers.
Again, this shows the complete disconnect. If those keyboard cowboys did not matter, Chad Mayes would still be Assembly Minority Leader and no one would know about his narcissistic rage at the end of his reign or his affair with Kristen Olsen.
The aforementioned Seren Taylor, the “policy” mastermind behind the Cap and Trade deal was indeed sacked by Chad Mayes’ replacement. Mr. Taylor landed in the office of, Chad Mayes. This is yet another indicator that being right and making sure the masses respect one’s authoritah has superseded any and all “polling data”. Seren Taylor should have been returned to New York as a result of the toxic damage he did to the GOP.
Speaking of polling data – your intrepid blogger finally got to see some of the fabled poll.
Of course it showed President Trump underwater everywhere in California. I laughed out loud as I recalled he was at 40% when he beat the most well-financed Presidential Campaign in history, the FBI, the NSA, the CIA, the Obama Admin, the UN, the media and everyone else arrayed to try and thwart the people labeled Keyboard Cowboys.
Apparently, enough people got from out in front of their computers to get the word out while Justin, Mayes and others were voting for / supporting / aiding and abetting Clinton.
What the poll did not prove was the connection between the lousy numbers for Republicans in general (not just President Trump) in California and selling out on the environment being the cure. Rather, what I saw was that in California, Republicans had nothing to offer and that is why their numbers were horrific. It is the exact opposite of the Bush-Romney-Moderate take your opponent’s issues away from them strategy… people really want something new.
Something new, like solutions, versus identity politics directed at one’s opponents. But, what we get is a daily lambasting from people whose egos will never recover from their own irrelevance being exposed by the 2016 election results.
IN the second set of tweets, it is clear that the Keyboard Cowboys were indeed a primary consideration in Chad Mayes’ Narcissistic Rage on the way out the door. Mr. Mayes needed to demonstrate he was still in charge. In so doing he proved their relevance.
Party be dammed, polling be dammed, Cap and Trade was about Chad Mayes. It is my belief that without the little people – the Keyboard Cowboys – that most all of the GOP Caucus would have been led over the cliff by Mayes. This is the toxic effect of group think based on a false premise.
20 years ago, I went to a campaign school run by Morton Blackwell. The first thing in it and every seminar like it since that I have been to is winning elections by contrasting yourself from your opponents. This has been the fight I have seen within the ranks of the GOP since I first became a delegate.
Nowadays, with the Moderates having been spent in to power by big money they’ve had it mostly their own way and the results have hastened the demise of Republican Registration numbers as people feel no affinity for a lukewarm GOP. Moderats want similarity to Democrats and Conservatives want Contrast.
Opposing the moderate paradigm means you are a White Nationalist. In some cases, it draws people in with 38 year old accusations that moderate Republican leaders take as gospel for political (see also control) reasons. Opposing this means people like Jeff Flake giving money to your democrat opponent,
In my life as an activist and campaign operative, I have heard an array of policy lies:
I was told Abortion was a loser, so there that went. (Today a majority of Americans identify as Pro-Life)
I was told family values was a loser and with the hypocrite parade in that field, there that went.
I was told we needed to soften sovereignty and immigration, some in GOP ranks squawked against it and were beaten down with Prop 187 and the “White Nationalist” label. ( Sanctuary Cities are opposed to the tune of 65% in most polls, bare majorities support the wall, numbers approaching 70% support stricter enforcement)
I was told we needed to “negotiate deals for a better future”. (see also bigger government, depending on how poll questions are asked, you can get some pretty large opposition to big government)
Now we are being told that we need to put a Republican label on the largest tax increase in California History. (Unless you disagree that “fees” are taxes, and then it is the largest fee increase and second largest tax increase in state history)
There is no plank in the GOP platform that the big money and folks like Joe Justin / Seren Taylor have not overturned.
There is no poll in the world, that if done honestly shows that massive tax increases and government increases in the name of anything will be popular. That is just absurd. There is also no poll that will ever give honest numbers about President Trump or real numbers about racism, immigration or the environment. All have been stigmatized and people are too intimidated to tell the pollster the truth. We all saw it with the public polls that predicted Hilary with 332 Electoral Votes.
Which gets me to my conclusion. I knew in Feb of 2016 that President Trump would be the GOP nominee. I could see in people’s eyes when I was at their doors and on the phone that Trump was going to win the Nevada Caucuses running away.
After the RNC Convention that Chad Mayes, Joe Justin and others criticized and lambasted, I also knew that then Candidate Trump was going to be all the Democrats could handle.
What Mayes, Justin, Kevin Spillaine, several Capitol Staffers and #nevertrump anonymous did not like was the uncontrollable nature of our now President (they made other excuses too). Seeing him decimate all the normal conventions of politics, such as a challenge to racism and immigration and the like was an extreme attack against the years of pent up pseudo relevance that they had.
I will be honest, I did not like President Trump either. But, having had a background in working in the real world, I understood what forging a deep emotional connection with potential insurance customers was all about. I saw President Trump doing that with voters and decided to pitch in and be part of the team while a lot around me did not.
Cap and Trade does not make a deep emotional connection with voters. It is not an issue that builds a movement. In fact, I’ve seen the moderate crew in the GOP try to re-package Gay Marriage, Abortion, Bonds, Budget sellouts and the like for years.
No one cares. They want change from the status quo. No amount of calling opponents to Republican Lite “White Nationalists” will change that.
It was when I started hearing President Trump’s message and seeing the reactions of real people to it that I started digging deep in to polls long enough to draw the conclusion in August that he was going to win. I had a dozen bets to prove it as well, as I put my money where my analysis of polling was. Until people like Seren Taylor and Joe Justin can put aside their personal (liberal) biases to see what connects, there is no polling data they could ever analyze correctly. I had to drop my own conservative filter as it pertained to President Trump.
In 2016, Joe Heck in Nevada ran away from Trump and lost. While the cause of Kelly Ayotte losing in NH may have been same day registration fraud, she was still susceptible to being beaten due to her public disdain for the now President. Rob Portman, Pat Toomey and others that held the President at Arm’s length and never disavowed him won. It is this sort of nuance that is missing from team Mayes analysis of political situations.
Brian Dahle is the new Sheriff. Can he turn this around? Can the CAGOP figure out a message that connects with voters on a deep, emotional level? Or, will we keep having the needless fights about how liberal we need to be? Unless the CAGOP can get honest and deliver something real that connects with people, they will slide in to oblivion.