Pictured – a new competitive state map based on current voter registration numbers in each state.
Remember when the polls completely missed the Presidential Election? Not the national polls which mysteriously all came down from Hillary +8 to Hilary +4 at the last minute to save their credibility. I am referring to the state-by-state polls that had her smoking Trump in Minnesota, which was so close it was not called until 7 AM the morning after election day or Wisconsin whose polls had Hillary up as much as 7 points a week before election day. Fox News Called WI at 11pm and the AP called it at 2:15AM for Trump.
Rasmussen, ostracized from the mainstream of poling because they were perceived to be favorable to Trump, called the election almost dead on. They had Hillary Clinton up 2 and the final result had Clinton up 2.1. They have Trump at 55% Approval.
Gallup? They have Trump at 40%. Their other questions yield bizarre answers:
Applies Doesn’t apply % % Keeps his promises 62 36 Is a strong and decisive leader 59 40 Can bring about the changes this country needs 53 46 Cares about the needs of people like you 46 54 Inspires confidence 44 55 Can manage the government effectively 44 55 Is honest and trustworthy 42 57
Explain something to me. How can someone perceived as dishonest by a 15% margin be trusted by a 26% margin to keep his promises? I have been sober too long to be able to understand that sort of bizarre cognitive dissonance.
For what it is worth, Fox News, whose Presidential Poll was consistently favorable to Hillary Clinton has Trump at 48% approval.
There are a few things that are clear from all the polling data I have read:
- People want their taxes cut
- People are way more hopeful over the economy
- People fear change, even though they agree that Donald Trump is the change agent. This is clear in the Obamacare polling, people hate it but are afraid of changing it.
- People don’t understand Trump’s Communication Style. Every poll shows that people want him to put a sock in his mouth.
- If the polls were accurate last year (which they were not) then these current pols show that Trump is gaining people’s confidence. (I contend that he had it all along and people are now comfortable admitting it).
I am going to make a prediction. Trump’s approval numbers will always be low – the same “Silent” Trump voters that avoided pollsters or lied on polls will continue to do so.
By the way – I got polled once, and was hung up on after I indicated support for Trump.
Stay tuned, and watch this blog as I am going to track PATTERNS, not numbers because that is the only way to read polls anymore.
Footnote: That “Controversial” travel restriction? Every polling firm out there shows that Americans support it. And, people that will admit it think Muslims are a problem, I can’t imagine why…
P.S. a veteran pollster commented on this Blog that most public polls are using Dem +10 samples in order to engineer an outcome. Note that national registration is about Dem +2 and voter identification is about Dem +5.