Problem one. Oroville is basically at sea level and will be drier than the mountains above it.
Problem two. Look at the temperature. A friend with training in Meteorology pointed this out to me. The temp of the first rainstorm is 61 degrees. That is quite warm.
The consequences of a warm storm mean early snow melting and thus will put even more pressure on the beleaguered Oroville Dam.
We will get a better idea of just how much rain we are looking at in the lowlands in a couple of days.
That said, let’s take a look at Quincy, which is at about 4000 feet at the top of the Feather River (dammed by Lake Oroville).
You should take note that the temperatures drop through to Sunday. This means that snow will re-appear by Sunday in the high country.
It would seem to me that the pressure will re-occur on the dam Late Friday to early Saturday as the main part of the early warm rain on Thursday will hit then.
All this said – keep asking the correct questions. What did the State of CA know and when? Why wasn’t maintenance done?