There are a few nuances on this map that were off, but Nevada was the only state that I blew it on. I will save this for posterity as I am proud of it.
So here go some things for 2017:
Rocklin needs to appoint a new councilmember. Since it appears Dave Butler is not interested, the leading candidate is a democrat. That is not going to end well. I wish I could predict harmony on the Rocklin CC, but the false harmony that has existed for the last 8ish years is gone now. People will pack meetings frequently. It is the new normal.
I hope I am wrong and that the appointment process neither yields a democrat nor a good-ol-boys jam down. They should learn their lesson from the convincing victory of the outsider in 2016 and drive on.
Roseville City Council has been beset by two rumors: 1. That Tim Herman is going to resign and let them appoint Krista Bernasconi to replace him. I disagree with that because Tim Herman has been basically the most pro-business member of that council (yes, I wrote that) and the community would not want him to leave early and 2. Krista Bernasconi is someone the insider community has seen coming for years. Getting appointed as a set up for 2018 would be insane given the current political environment. (Think of Obama giving himself the distinguished public service medal and how ridiculous that looks). As a bonus, I think both Bernasconi and Herman would prefer to stand on their own individual merits and not be tied together.
Rumor 2: Krista Bernasconi is running for City Council. This is true.
With the expected return of Tracy Mendonsa, it will suck all the oxygen out of the room for any other candidates. David Larson was intending to use a two year term on the City School Board to set up his run in 2018, until he got hammered by Alisa Fong by 20 points. The same fate awaits him should he run for Roseville Council.
Lincoln: with the expulsion of Spencer Short from the City Council – I predict a healthy, functional dynamic on that council for the first time in years. Lincoln is far from out of the woods, but getting rid of Spencer Short was a big deal. Dealing with the local rag would be another, but it seems that Gold County Media is a refuge for Junior College Journalism dropouts.
Ted Gaines. Given what a monster Ssssteve Davey is and the fact that Ted Gaines (who fancies himself as some sort of Christian leader) did nothing while Sssssteve Davey Harrassed and physically assaulted women on staff, it makes me wonder. Did Ted Gaines do nothing and wait for the Senate Rules committee to fire Davey because Ssssteve Davey had too much knowledge of the Gaines inner dealings? What it is in that closet? Will Ted’s next run for office in 2018 as he desperately seeks to extend his welfare checks from the State of California finally cause the revelation of the hidden truth?
The dominos in the North State.
I’ve heard conflicting rumors that Doug LaMalfa is considering retirement in 2018. I’ve been told by more than one person with DC Connections about his foibles in DC.
I’ve also heard conflicting rumors about State Senator Jim Nielsen. Nielsen was born in 1944. This means he will be 74 when he runs for his final term in 2018. Does he?
When I saw the Senator during the Bill Halldin for Assembly Campaign, he looked great. He was quite vivacious, engaging and healthy. Nielsen is also an old-school politician who I think we need to see in office through the end if he is healthy enough to do so.
Given the insider machinations, which include significant expenditures of cash toward the results on several County Republican Party Committees it is making me wonder if the deck chairs on the GOP Titanic are being aligned even after it struck the iceberg in 2016. When you add that those targeted for defeat by the expenditures were people from outside the mainstream in favor of staffers and family of GOP politicians it makes me wonder further.
I’ve been told by insiders that LaMalfa and Nielsen are staying put.
Assemblymember James Gallagher is a good man. He is about 10 years younger than me and represents the future of the GOP. I can’t be the only one that sees that.
It is my opinion that Gallagher is going to move up to Congress. I have ample evidence to back that up and I will not be posting that here because I do not intend to hurt Mr. Gallagher’s future run for Congress as he has given me no reason to do so.
Chico City Councilman Sean Morgan is another rising star. He hit my radar as I started getting reports of him showing up to events in Glenn, Colusa, Tehama and Sutter Counties. The only reason to do so is if you are preparing a run. Jim Nielsen’s Current State Senate District Contains those counties. Sean Morgan is as young as Gallagher. Mr. Morgan’s large campaign signs were also coupled with James Gallagher’s near Chico in 2016.
Both Morgan and Gallagher are rock-solid conservatives who tend to align with the liberal GOP establishment on internal party politics matters. If you see Gallagher on tape on the floor of the legislature, you will see how conservative he is personally.
This is the state of the CAGOP, if you are a die-hard conservative and you have ambition for office you must align with the liberal GOP leaders in order to set your base fundraising support. I don’t like it one bit, but it is what it is. Both men will have to explain to the grassroots why doing so is not compromise or selling out – it will be a tough case to make, but if they can do so successfully they should both win their next races easily.
The questions for me are, is it Gallagher for Congress in 2018 or 2022? Because, I can predict with certainty that James Gallagher will run for Congress.
Based on when Gallagher runs for Congress, that determines what Sean Morgan does. Morgan would likely run for Assembly in AD03 to replace Gallagher in 2018. Were it to be 2022, then Morgan could run to replace Nielsen. There are others in the pipeline for later on down the road that could theoretically be ready for a 2022 run.
Having been at this for nearly 20 years – this stuff appears quite clear to me. I know I am missing a lot of details, but the big picture is what matters here.
Will I be involved in any of these impending campaigns? On whose side? Stay Tuned and thanks for readeing this blog.