Dec 092016
 

Let me start off with a data point. I am aware of the fact that there were phone banks for the Trump Campaign being run out of California that made a ton of calls. However, Tim Clark had little or nothing to do with them at all. Sources I have spoken to indicated to me that they received little or no direction after the initial connections were made to the technology to set them up.

I am also aware of several people that were operating on their own. There was no cohesion of effort and this led to a significant deterioration of volunteer efforts on the ground in California. No amount of spin over the estimated 2 million calls made from California on Trump’s behalf in other states can fix that. The focus of this post is on the disaster in California and Tim Clark’s epic failure to do his job.

When you combine the above with Clark’s admission to people about his focus being on John Moorlach, and the complaints of volunteers, the pattern becomes clear.

I was in Nevada in the weeks before the election. Few, if any people from California went to Reno to help the Trump effort. No one I spoke to on the ground there knew who Tim Clark was, despite the fact that Clark was emailing about “strike teams” and delivering Nevada for Trump. He did next to nothing is the only conclusion you could draw.

Tim Clark was originally hired to be Trump’s Western Region Chair. Trump lost Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. Let that sink in. Paul Manafort hired Tim Clark and apparently Clark evaded detection when staff was turned over.

An additional data point is that county chairs I spoke to in the campaign effort indicated that they would get last-minute urgent requests for information with less than 24 hours to respond. Since many people do not check email every day, often times these deadlines were missed. Insiders in California know Mr. Clark as “Last Minute Tim”, this pattern is consistent again. The volunteers deserved better – given the $119K paid to him you’d think that there would have been a more professional effort.

latinos-with-dtjHow Bad did Trump lose California?

As of the writing of this blog, it was 4.2 million votes. This spread of 31% is the second worst of any state in the union. (Hawaii)

The GOP lost 3 Assembly Seats, 1 State Senate Seat and scores of down-ticket races. This means that the democrats could now gut Proposition 13 without needing a Republican vote to do so.

When you see the Typo-Filled site that bears Donald Trump’s name and logo on it – regardless of who maintained it – you have to wonder why no one noticed the typos or the lack of interest in the site. Why didn’t Tim Clark say anything about this site? Why were these errors allowed to stay?

Why was there no county chair in dark red Placer County?

But, let’s dive in to the numbers a little deeper…

As of right now – Texas with 1/3 less population than California has delivered more votes for Trump than California. Florida with half the population of California delivered more votes for Trump than California.

coalitions-page-with-143-total-viewsMitt Romney lost California by about 2.2 million votes in 2012. Trump will lose California by almost double that, and worse that extra 2 million votes is the national difference in the National Popular Vote.

The Mitt Romney team did some basic outreach in order to make sure that existing Republicans at least voted for Romney.

A commenter attacked this blog for pointing out things like the 147 total views on the coalitions page – citing another official site with 40,000 followers, many of whom live outside CA. Even if all 40K were inside CA, what does that get someone in terms of a Campaign? Not Much.

Since I am a numbers guy, I have realized that the only way you could lose California by 4.2 Million Votes is if REPUBLICANS voted for Hillary in statistically significant numbers.

Let me expand on that… Republicans are 27% of the vote in CA. The final total is around 31.7%. This means that Trump only got 4-5% above registration. Democrats are about 45% of the total in CA. Clinton will be around 62.5%. This means that Clinton will get 17-18% above registration.

The only way that could happen is if Non-Partisan and Independent voters went for Clinton 80-20. This in not statistically possible. Nationally, Trump WON independents by 8%.

It is impossible to tell how many Republicans voted for Clinton in CA or left their ballots blank. However, it is safe to assume that with a county like Orange having a 21% shift between Romney in 2012 and Trump in 2016 the the results of Mr. Clark’s failure to even perform the basic functions of a campaign in California was catastrophic:

Last minute demands of Volunteers.

Last minute disaster on the Trump delegation team that made national news

Extremely high turnover in volunteer leadership

Volunteers told they have no access to Mr. Clark

While Millions of calls came out of California, the patterns show that Mr. Clark can not take credit for it. It may well be that Mr. Clark’s only accomplishment is his part in the National Convention despite his failure with the delegation selection process.

With hundreds of thousands of Republicans in California voting for Clinton and the residual damage across the board, this is the legacy of Tim Clark.

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