Apr 292016
 

Let’s go from the bottom up.

Suzanne Jones, has $2500 left. Has lent herself about $10k

Kevin Hanley, has a net $54k left. Has bought some radio and some mail. Has only raised about $20k from people not named Kevin Hanley.

The first real news is that Cristi Nelson raised about $23k TOTAL in 2016. After the reports cut off, Nelson’s Husband went to a couple vendors for another $10k which leaves Nelson with $106k in the bank, just enough to re-pay the $100k loan.

Andy Pugno has given himself $101k, and lent himself 100k + has gotten an additional $16,800 in loans from family. When you subtract his unpaid bills from his cash total, he has about $215k in the bank. Pugno is in debt to Tim Clark, who was hired by Rob Manafort to work for Donald Trump, $15k of the $47k in unpaid bills he reported.

If you are scoring at home: 10K Jones, 105K Hanley, 201K Pugno, 100K Nelson = 416K chipped in by Republican candidates on themselves.

Nelson has raised a little more than 105K, Hanley, 15K, Pugno about 25K and Jones about 10K for a total of $155K.

This is insane. Of The total $571k reported by the above, only 27% of it was raised, the remaining 73% was from their own pocket.

Now, to young Mr. Kiley. The reports showed that the $80k in out of district money he reported was raised for him by an intermediary. This matches the impression I had of his campaign and fundraising all along. In addition, the overwhelming majority of his money is from out of district.

Kiley has given himself $8400 out of his 238K raised. That is not an issue. The real issue is that over half of his money is from Bay Area donors.

Kiley’s campaign crew made sue to leave him with 100k in the bank for the psychological value of having six figures. This is also similar to the staged pictures and the super selective campaign activity designed to create an appearance. It remains to be seen if substance will follow.

Now to my guy, Bill Halldin.

He did not use an intermediary to raise his $230k. He did not come out of pocket for anything significant (maybe $2k) and he raised $230k in 6 less months than young Mr. Kiley.

Halldin reported $130k net in the bank. This puts him in a clear first place, especially since none of the money in his account is his own.

Kiley and Pugno have already sent their first mail pieces and the storm is landing now. Buckle up people.

Do not believe anyone’s press releases – here are the raw numbers

Candidate         TIME IN CAMPAIGN           Amount Raised                Amount of Own Money+Loans         Net Raised

Cristi Nelson    18 Months                              208k                                     100k                                                            108k

Andy Pugno     2 months                                260k                                     201K + 17K                                                 42k

Kevin Hanley  6 months                                 125k                                     105k                                                              20k

Kevin Kiley      11 months                                238k                                   8k                                                                   230k

Bill Halldin     6 months                                  230k                                   5k                                                                    225k

 

Kevin Kiley had to get outside help to draw even in the money race, something he can not keep up. Bill Halldin is the clear front-runner, because real donors equal real support. When you look closer, over 2/3 of his money is from inside the district. No hyperbole here, just facts.

Leave a Reply