Please note – I am helping Bill Halldin and was proud to have been involved in helping him from almost the day he decided to run for AD06. This blog post is written from a 30,000 foot view as best I can despite my personal interest in electing Bill Halldin to the Assembly.
Where do we stand right now in the #AD06 race?
Andy Pugno – everyone acknowledges that he has a name ID advantage. Apparently, Andy Pugno and his campaign consultant Tim Clark (who was also hired by Rob Manafort to work for Donald Trump in California) were convinced enough that Mr. Clark had been working behind the scenes to try to set Pugno up for a run.
In addition – Tim Clark or Andy Pugno himself believe that his chances are so good that Mr. Pugno just contributed $200,000 more to his own campaign. Pugno can not recover this money, unlike the first $100,000. I will be curious to see how that money was spent at the end of the day. I am also curious to see how Tim Clark can run the entire state for Donald Trump while helping Pugno.
All this said, had I not been involved helping Bill Halldin from Day One – I’d have certainly been involved in Andy Pugno’s campaign. Pugno remains my second choice in #AD06.
Kevin Kiley – a young trial lawyer who supports Gay Marriage and has publicly attacked Andy Pugno for writing Proposition 8, has reported $80,700 in contributions since the 24-hour period opened. Only $6500 is from the Sacramento Area. It is safe to say that this young socially liberal trial lawyer is funded by Bay Area Liberals (and donors from New York and Washington DC).
Kiley has had limited campaign activity and has made interesting decisions on spending and content appears to be running to the center in the primary by touting the endorsement of a GOP-Destroying former Governor. Kiley has also signaled that he is going to attack Bill Halldin as he has been running his mouth liberally inside the district.
Cristi Beckstead-Nelson – her campaign appears to be running out of steam. She has had events that have generated little or no interest, other than placing some extremely large banners on roadsides has had little campaign activity. Beckstead-Nelson is how she is listed in county records and her voter registration, yet she is running from her legal name in her campaign. Beckstead-Nelson is also a social liberal.
Beckstead-Nelson’s campaign appears to be running out of steam. She has reported only $6800 in large checks in all of 2016. She also appears to have spent a lot of her own money and may never recoup the $100k she is on pace to lose.
Kevin “Hurricane” Hanley – has chipped in $105,000 of his own money. Aside from Halldin and Pugno, Hanley is the only other candidate running or AD06 I consider qualified and able to do the job. That said, Hanley’s campaign is headed nowhere and I sincerely hope he does not spend all of his own money.
Outside interests have polled. It appears that they are about ready to come in and make their presence known. What they do is anyone’s guess… Which gets me to Bill Halldin…
Having seen this from the inside – Halldin has a huge donor list that is likely larger than all of his opponents combined. The reports that will be public soon will show this. Secondly, these people are also helping the campaign all over the district.
Halldin, who is an unabashed Social Conservative, has managed to get the support and endorsement of people from across the spectrum of politics.
Halldin earned the following endorsements in the last two weeks: Doug Ose, Roger Niello, Congressman Doug LaMalfa, Senator Jim Nielsen, Assembly-Members James Gallagher and Frank Bigelow – representing a cross-section of the GOP and showing serious power for his candidacy.
This is going to aggregate and will make Halldin competitive with anyone running in this 11 candidate mess.
My analysis will stop here as the insanity will begin to hit people’s mailboxes soon. It is time for me to grab my Trump hat and some breakfast… gotta go get some precincts covered. Make #AD06 Great Again…