May 292015
 

The time honored tradition of termed-out incumbents and other incumbents looking to extend their political lives is upon us!

SD29 – Senate Permanent Minority Leader Bob Huff is Termed out and has picked Ling-Ling Chang, currently in AD55 (in her first term) to replace him. Ling-Ling announced today. Ling-Ling should be a shoo-in and has impressed observers in the capitol suggesting that she will have little trouble raising the resources she needs.

AD55 – the seat vacated by Ling-Ling Chang is going to set off a free-for-all primary.

CA24 – Lois Capps retired, setting up a free-for-all in this dem-leaning seat. Abel Maldonado attempted to beat Capps in 2012 and was trounced. Chris Mitchum won a crowded primary and was ignored by the NRCC, and only lost by about 3 points. This is why Capps retired in 2016 presidential year – higher Dem Turnout makes it more likely that Republican Assemblymember Katcho Achidijian (who is termed out) will have a difficult time winning this seat. Katcho is one of the most liberal Republicans in the Assembly, but is well-liked and is a poster child for “fits the district”.

AD35 – this is the district Katcho is termed out of. True to form, as with the insane Presidential Free-for-all, Republicans disregard the clear the field strategy… including in a marginal district like AD35.

AD68 – Don Wagner is Termed Out. It looks like a mad-rush there as well. My intel shows me that the crazed Deborah Pauly, Tax Raising Stephen Choi, Hide and Seek Harry Sidhu and Conservative Activist Scott Voigts are the contestants there.

AD76 – Moderate Republican Incumbent Rocky Chavez is vetting a run for US Senate. Given that he is struggling to gain traction, he may stay put. I think Chavez would be a good fit for a statewide run, while at the same time I’d prefer a more conservative Republican in a Safe R seat like AD76. (see also fit the district)

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